Bettors Guide: NFL Week 17 Picks, Point Spreads, Lock of the Week, and Over-Under Odds

There were a few errors in the TV schedule info originally published with this post. The NFL pulled a few last-minute switcheroos with game times. It’s been updated. Also, the Steelers-Browns pick is in.

After two straight 11-5 weeks, which pulled my record over .500, I fell back to Earth a little bit last week, going just 8-8 and missing on my lock pick of Atlanta covering the 6.5 against New Orleans.

Still, ever since my one week hiatus in Week 13, I am 30-18, so I’m still feeling good and riding a nice wave of momentum.

nfl-week-17-picks-point-spreads-odds-free-picks-ats-over-unders-lock-of-the-week

For the season, I am now 108-105-7, which is over .500 as a record, but which still remains at just a .491 winning percentage. The goal is to get that over .500 too, and this is my last full week of games to do it. If I go 10-6 this week, I’ll be right at that .500 mark (118-111-7), and if I can squeeze out another 11-5 I’ll be over it.

Let’s see what I can do.

A couple of quick things to keep in mind:

  • Note: There is no Monday night game this week. All games are played on Sunday, January 1st.
  • All times are ET.
  • Spreads as of Tuesday afternoon. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, here you go: Week 17 NFL Odds and Lines

Here is your Week 17 Bettor’s Guide, complete with free spread picks for each Week 17 game, as well as the over-under odds for each matchup; and, of course, my Lock of the Week.

NFL Week 17 Bettor’s Guide

Point Spreads – Free Picks ATS – Over-Under Odds

TV Schedule – Lock of the Week

———-

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Redskins-Eagles Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Redskins-Eagles Point Spread: Eagles -9
  • Redskins-Eagles Over-Under Odds: 46.5
  • Redskins-Eagles Spread Pick: The Eagles are red hot right now while the Redskins are coming off of a loss to Minnesota (which was without Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder). The key in Week 17 is figuring out who has something to play for and who doesn’t. Neither of these teams has anything to play for in the traditional sense – neither is going to the playoffs – but I think the Eagles will be motivated to finish the season at .500 and on a roll, and I think they’ll roll the Redskins this weekend. Redskins-Eagles free pick: Eagles -9

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

  • Lions-Packers Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Lions-Packers Point Spread: Lions -3.5
  • Lions-Packers Over-Under Odds: 46.5
  • Lions-Packers Spread Pick: The Packers have nothing to play for. They are the #1 seed. Thus, they are likely to sit guys. The young Lions have been rolling, and a win in Lambeau would mean more to them than it would mean to the Packers, who will be in been-there-done-that mode and just waiting for the playoffs. Lions-Packers free pick: Lions -3.5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

  • Texans-Colts Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Texans-Colts Point Spread: Dolphins -1
  • Texans-Colts Over-Under Odds: 41.5
  • Texans-Colts Spread Pick: The Jets are reeling right now, while the Dolphins continue to play well. Miami led New England 17-0 at halftime last week before Tom Brady and Co turned it on. The Jets still have a slim shot at the playoffs, so they’ll come ready to play, but the Dolphins players like Matt Moore are literally playing for their jobs in 2012. It makes me nervous that I’m about to lay points for the fourth straight pick…but I’m doing it again because I think the Dolphins will win this game. Jets-Dolphins free pick: Dolphins -1

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

  • Panthers-Saints Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Panthers-Saints Point Spread: Saints -9.5
  • Panthers-Saints Over-Under Odds: 55
  • Panthers-Saints Spread Pick: The Saints could get the #2 seed if San Francisco loses to the Rams and they beat Carolina. The two games will be played simultaneously, and since I think San Fran will obliterate St. Louis, New Orleans should know by halftime that they are locked into the #3 seed. That’s when they will sit Drew Brees, and the New Orleans won’t be able to keep up with Cam Newton and Co, who will have the motivation of finishing their season on a big time hot streak. Don’t be surprised if Carolina wins. Panthers-Saints free pick: Panthers +9.5

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

  • 49ers-Rams Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • 49ers-Rams Point Spread: 49ers -10.5
  • 49ers-Rams Over-Under Odds: 35.5
  • 49ers-Rams Spread Pick: The Rams are terrible. The 49ers are one of the more underrated teams in the league – and I say that full well knowing that they got more Pro Bowl participants than any other NFC team. San Fran will put an exclamation point on their amazing regular season this week. 49ers-Rams free pick: 49ers -10.5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

  • Bills-Patriots Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Bills-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -11.5
  • Bills-Patriots Over-Under Odds: 51
  • Bills-Patriots Spread Pick: The Patriots still have a lot to play for. They need to win to get homefield advantage. And I think they will win…but I think it will be a close game, like their games last week against Miami was. Buffalo can move the ball and put up points against this Patriots D, and they’ve already shown that they can frustrate Tom Brady. Bills-Patriots free pick: Bills +11.5

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Colts-Jaguars Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Colts-Jaguars Point Spread: Jaguars -4
  • Colts-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 37
  • Colts-Jaguars Spread Pick: The Jags are flailing as the season winds to a close, but the Colts have a chance to end the season on a three-game winning streak. Dan Orlovsky will certainly be motivated to do so, as he is auditioning for someone’s backup job for next year. Guys like Reggie Wayne could be playing their final game in a Colts uniform. I think Indy wins, though Maurice Jones-Drew might rack up 400 rushing yards. Colts-Jaguars free pick: Colts +4

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

  • Titans-Texans Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Titans-Texans Point Spread: Titans -3
  • Titans-Texans Over-Under Odds: 40.5
  • Titans-Texans Spread Pick: Houston is locked into the #3 seed, win or lose. With the injuries they already have, surely they will sit guys like Arian Foster and Brian Cushing. The Titans are still playing for something, which is why they are favored by three points. I like them to cover that. Houston simply hasn’t been playing good football lately. Titans-Texans free pick: Titans -3

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

  • Bears-Vikings Date: Sunday, January 1 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Bears-Vikings Point Spread: Bears -1
  • Bears-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 40
  • Bears-Vikings Spread Pick: The Bears have Josh McCown and Kahlil Bell. The Vikings have Joe Webb and Toby Gerhart. Not exactly what we expected when we first saw this game on the schedule, is it? I like Minnesota to ride the home field advantage, and the excitement and motivation of Webb and Gerhart, to the W. Bears-Vikings free pick: Vikings +1

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

  • Chiefs-Broncos Date: Sunday, January 1 at 4:15 PM on CBS
  • Chiefs-Broncos Point Spread: Broncos -3.5
  • Chiefs-Broncos Over-Under Odds: 37
  • Chiefs-Broncos Spread Pick: Sure, Kyle Orton has a lot of motivation for this game, but it’s not like he’s firmly entrenched in the KC locker room as a leader that other players will lay it on the line for. He just got there. The Chiefs have nothing to play for, as they are eliminated from the playoffs, but the Broncos are in a win-and-in scenario. I do think the Chiefs can keep it close, but Denver will end up victorious. Chiefs-Broncos free pick: Chiefs +3.5

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

  • Seahawks-Cardinals Date: Sunday, January 1 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • Seahawks-Cardinals Point Spread: Cardinals -3
  • Seahawks-Cardinals Over-Under Odds: 41
  • Seahawks-Cardinals Spread Pick: These two teams are finishing the season playing surprisingly well. Though neither has a chance at the playoffs, both are looking to finish their season with positive momentum. I like Seattle’s defense a little bit better than Arizona’s, and Marshawn Lynch is carrying the Seahawks on offense right now. He’ll continue to eat his Skittles in this one. Seahawks-Cardinals free pick: Seahawks +3

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

  • Chargers-Raiders Date: Sunday, January 1 at 4:15 PM on CBS
  • Chargers-Raiders Point Spread: Raiders -3
  • Chargers-Raiders Over-Under Odds: 49
  • Chargers-Raiders Spread Pick: The Raiders can make the playoffs in a couple of different scenarios. The Chargers are out, and there are plenty of reports that Norv Turner likely won’t be back next year. Seeing how San Diego played in Detroit last week with their season on the line, there is little to have faith in…even if it’s December. Chargers-Raiders free pick: Raiders -3

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Ravens-Bengals Date: Sunday, January 1 at 4:15 PM on CBS
  • Ravens-Bengals Point Spread: Ravens -1.5
  • Ravens-Bengals Over-Under Odds: 38
  • Ravens-Bengals Spread Pick: The Ravens tend to step it up for big games. This is a big game. If Cincinnati wins, they are in the playoffs. I don’t think Baltimore will give them a chance. Ravens-Bengals free pick: Ravens -1.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

  • Buccaneers-Falcons Date: Sunday, January 1 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • Buccaneers-Falcons Point Spread: Falcons -13
  • Buccaneers-Falcons Over-Under Odds: 47
  • Buccaneers-Falcons Spread Pick: The Falcons are in the playoffs, but they surely want to go into next week playing better than they did against New Orleans. They should be able to do it against a Tampa Bay team that is getting flat out dominated week after week. Few home field advantages are as consistent as Atlanta’s, so I don’t think this is a great week to predict that Tampa Bay will pull its head out of its collective ass. Buccaneers-Falcons free pick: Falcons -13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

  • Steelers-Browns Date: Sunday, January 1 at 4:15 PM on CBS
  • Steelers-Browns Point Spread: Steelers -7
  • Steelers-Browns Over-Under Odds: 36
  • Steelers-Browns Spread Pick: Pittsburgh still has a lot to play for with with AFC North title on the line and Baltimore playing at the same as them. And if New England loses to Buffalo, home field advantage will be on the line too. I am tempted to pick the Steelers, but I feel a little uneasy about it. What if New England wins and Baltimore jumps up big on Cincinnati early? What if the Browns play inspired football at home in the their last game of the season? I don’t know. Something is telling me to pick the Browns and the points…so I will. Steelers-Browns free pick: Browns +7

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

  • Cowboys-Giants Date: Sunday, January 1 at 8:20 PM on NBC
  • Cowboys-Giants Point Spread: Giants -3
  • Cowboys-Giants Over-Under Odds: 46.5
  • Cowboys-Giants Spread Pick: The game of the week! I’m going with the Giants. Tony Romo’s hand looked really bad Sunday, so I’ll believe he can play without limitations when I see it. Dallas also has a habit in these Week 17 win-and-in games of laying tremendous eggs. I don’t think they’ll do that (remember 44-6 to Philly?), but I do think the Giants will win this game, and do it by more than a field goal. Cowboys-Giants free pick: Giants -3

Lock of the Week

I am tempted to take the Panthers +9 v New Orleans as my lock of the week, but picking against New Orleans last week bit me in the ass, so I’ll go another route.

I like Buffalo +11.5 against New England. That’s a lot of points, and I think is the best “value” on the board (which is what I always hear the professional handicappers say). The Patriots’ D simply isn’t good enough to shut down a competent (i.e. non-Tebow) passing attack, and while Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled a lot since his contract extension, the Bills’ offense still poses more of a challenge to New England’s D than an offense like Denver’s.



About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

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