Bettors Guide: NFL Week 16 Picks, Point Spreads, Lock of the Week, and Over-Under Odds

Update: The late-arriving spreads are in…and now so are my picks for those games.

Three weeks ago, I was not feeling good. I was 78-87-7 on the season and so dejected that I let someone else do my picks for the week – a task I have faithfully completed here at MSF every week for the last three years.

But apparently the one week hiatus was exactly what I needed to get back on the right track.

nfl-week-16-picks-point-spreads-odds-free-picks-ats-over-unders-lock-of-the-weekIn the two weeks since I have gone 22-10, with two straight 11-5 weeks, to improve my season record to 100-97-7. (I did, however, miss my “lock of the week” last week, having trusted the Broncos to keep it close against New England.)

But I’ll be damned if I’m going to rest on my laurels and coast to the finish line.

My goal is a .500+ winning percentage, and despite having more wins that losses my winning percentage is only 49%, since pushes are not wins. And since I’m determined to be more disciplined and hold myself accountable to my goals, I won’t be satisfied until I get that winning percentage onto the right side of .500.

A couple of quick things to keep in mind:

  • Note: The majority of this week’s games are on Saturday, as it is Christmas Eve. Sunday Night Football remains on Sunday night though.
  • All times are ET.
  • Spreads as of Tuesday morning. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, here you go: Week 16 NFL Odds and Lines

Here is your Week 16 Bettor’s Guide, complete with free spread picks for each Week 16 game, as well as the over-under odds for each matchup; and, in a new weekly feature based on popular demand, my Lock of the Week.

NFL Week 16 Bettor’s Guide

Point Spreads – Free Picks ATS – Over-Under Odds

TV Schedule – Lock of the Week


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

  • Texans-Colts Date: Thursday, December 22 at 8:20 PM on NFL Network
  • Texans-Colts Point Spread: Texans -5.5
  • Texans-Colts Over-Under Odds: 40
  • Texans-Colts Spread Pick: I’m nervous about going Houston in this one. Defenses may be able to figure T.J. Yates out now that they have a few games of film on him, and perhaps Houston was exposed a bit last week by Carolina. Indy is riding high after finally winning a game, and they surely want to finish the season on a high note. Plus, they have to have a little bit of revenge on their minds after the Week 1 drubbing. Houston will win, but Indy is keeping this one close at home. Texans-Colts free pick: Colts +5.5

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

  • Broncos-Bills Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Broncos-Bills Point Spread: Broncos -3
  • Broncos-Bills Over-Under Odds: 42.5
  • Broncos-Bills Spread Pick: Very tough game to figure. The Bills almost came back and beat the Dolphins last week despite a big deficit, so they haven’t quit. Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be feeling some heat, having played so badly since his contract extension. And the Broncos are set up big time for a trap after last week’s mammoth game against New England and with Kansas City looming next week. Plus, there are some bounces and luck that still has to even out for Denver after that “magical” six game run. Give me the home team and the points in this one. Broncos-Bills free pick: Bills +3

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

  • Dolphins-Patriots Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Dolphins-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -9.5
  • Dolphins-Patriots Over-Under Odds: 48.5
  • Dolphins-Patriots Spread Pick: This is too many points for the Patriots to be favored over Miami. The Dolphins always play New England tough, and Matt Moore has been playing better than people think. He can take advantage of the Patriots’ deficiencies in the secondary. Dolphins-Patriots free pick: Dolphins +9.5

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

  • Browns-Ravens Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Browns-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -13
  • Browns-Ravens Over-Under Odds: 38.5
  • Browns-Ravens Spread Pick: The Ravens’ M.O. is to lose meaningless west coast road game, then return home and pulverize whoever they play next. I think they’ll do it again this week against a Browns team that has to be demoralized after another crushing loss last week. Is 13 points a lot to trust Joe Flacco with? Yes. But the Browns can be gashed on the ground – remember what Ray Rice did last time? – and I think Baltimore runs its way to an easy victory. Browns-Ravens free pick: Ravens -13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

  • Jaguars-Titans Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Jaguars-Titans Point Spread: Titans -9
  • Jaguars-Titans Over-Under Odds: 40
  • Jaguars-Titans Spread Pick: I don’t particularly like much about Jacksonville, even if its once-solid defense. But I do like Maurice Jones-Drew, who continues to play well game in and game out. Tennessee just lost to previously winless Indianapolis, so it’s hard to have much confidence in them, especially with their flux at the QB position. I’ll take the points simply because it’s so many of them. Jaguars-Titans free pick: Jaguars +9

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Raiders-Chiefs Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Raiders-Chiefs Point Spread: Chiefs -1
  • Raiders-Chiefs Over-Under Odds: 42
  • Raiders-Chiefs Spread Pick: The Chiefs have all of the momentum, having beaten Green Bay last week, having a coach they actually like playing for, and having a competent QB who is playing for his job. Oakland, on the other hand, is a mess that seems incapable of pulling out a W. I think Kansas City wins the game, so I have to give the point. Raiders-Chiefs free pick: Chiefs -1

New York Giants at New York Jets

  • Giants-Jets Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Giants-Jets Point Spread: Jets -3
  • Giants-Jets Over-Under Odds: 46
  • Giants-Jets Spread Pick: I’ll admit that I have zero clue how this game will go. None. And neither do you, nor anyone else. The Giants and Jets are two of the biggest enigmas in football. Both have talent, yet their rosters are probably overrated, and they simply cannot find any semblance of consistency. With so little to be sure about in this game, just give the points and let’s move on. Giants-Jets free pick: Giants +3

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins

  • Vikings-Redskins Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Vikings-Redskins Point Spread: Redskins -6.5
  • Vikings-Redskins Over-Under Odds: 44
  • Vikings-Redskins Spread Pick: It is very tempting to pick the Redskins here. And I may. Minnesota’s defense is beyond awful, and Christian Ponder didn’t look so great last week either. The Redskins, on the other hand, are finishing the season with some positive momentum and have a QB in Rex Grossman who can take advantage of the Vikings’ problems in the secondary. Screw it, I’m giving the points. I may regret it, but I’m going with my gut. Vikings-Redskins free pick: Redskins -6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

  • Buccaneers-Panthers Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Buccaneers-Panthers Point Spread: Panthers -9
  • Buccaneers-Panthers Over-Under Odds: 48
  • Buccaneers-Panthers Spread Pick: Tampa Bay is really, really bad; and they play especially poorly on the road. Carolina, on the other hand, proved last week that they aren’t just playing out the string. Ron Rivera will be the head coach next year, as opposed to Raheem Morris, so he still has command of the locker room. I really can’t believe I’m doing this one, but I’m taking the home Panthers to get a big time victory. If Tampa Bay couldn’t stop Felix Jones and Sammy Morris, how will they stop DAW, JStew, and Cam? In short, they won’t. Bucs-Panthers free pick: Panthers -9

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Cardinals-Bengals Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Cardinals-Bengals Point Spread: Bengals -4
  • Cardinals-Bengals Over-Under Odds: 40
  • Cardinals-Bengals Spread Pick: Cincy is favored by four? Have the oddsmakers been watching the Cardinals? This team is beating everyone in its path right now, whereas Cincy damn near lost to woeful St. Louis last week. Both teams are still clinging to playoff hopes, so there is a lot for each to play for here. I think Arizona keeps it close, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they won it. Cardinals-Bengals free pick: Cardinals +4

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Rams-Steelers Date: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM on FOX
  • Rams-Steelers Point Spread: Steelers -15.5
  • Rams-Steelers Over-Under Odds: 37.5
  • Rams-Steelers Spread Pick: I know that St. Louis isn’t very good, but this is just way too many points, especially with Ben Roethlisberger not playing. The Rams, as bad as they are, almost beat Cincinnati last week, which shows that they at least haven’t quit on the season. Pittsburgh will win, but even if it’s a backdoor cover late…St. Louis will cover this. Rams-Steelers free pick: Rams +15.5

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions

  • Chargers-Lions Date: Saturday, December 24 at 4:05 PM on CBS
  • Chargers-Lions Point Spread: Lions -1.5
  • Chargers-Lions Over-Under Odds: 52
  • Chargers-Lions Spread Pick: These two teams are tough to figure too. San Diego never seems to lose in December, which is really making me think long and hard about picking them. But Detroit is at home, and they can taste their first playoff berth in many, many years. With Ndamukong Suh back and heavily motivated, based on his intense reaction to Detroit’s win last week, I think he gives Detroit the edge. Chargers-Lions free pick: Lions -1.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

  • Eagles-Cowboys Date: Saturday, December 24 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • Eagles-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5
  • Eagles-Cowboys Over-Under Odds: 50.5
  • Eagles-Cowboys Spread Pick: Tony Romo is playing great football right now, and Dallas has a chance to lock up its playoff spot while also exacting revenge on the Eagles for Dallas’ only blowout loss of the season. Philly’s resurgence these last couple of weeks has been a nice story, but I trust Tony Romo and Dallas’ defense a lot more than I trust Michael Vick and Philly’s D. Now if Jason Garrett can just not doing something to screw it up… Eagles-Cowboys free pick: Cowboys -1.5

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

  • 49ers-Seahawks Date: Saturday, December 24 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • 49ers-Seahawks Point Spread: 49ers -1
  • 49ers-Seahawks Over-Under Odds: 37.5
  • 49ers-Seahawks Spread Pick: I’ve been underestimating San Francisco all season long, and I have probably missed on their games more than any other. Just wanted to give you fair warning, since I’m taking Seattle and the point in this one. The Seahawks have been playing very well lately, typically play much better at home (while San Fran does not play as well on the road), and should have beaten the 49ers in Week 1 except for two Ted Ginn return TDs. Revenge gets exacted Saturday. 49ers-Seahawks free pick: Seahawks +1

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

  • Bears-Packers Date: Sunday, December 25 at 8:20 PM on NBC
  • Bears-Packers Point Spread: Packers -12.5
  • Bears-Packers Over-Under Odds: 43.5
  • Bears-Packers Spread Pick: Let’s see here…the Packers are at home, they still have homefield advantage to play for, they are coming off their first loss in over a year and refocused, the Bears are out of the playoff picture, have a McCown starting at QB, and still don’t have Matt Forte. I think I’d take the Packers and lay 21 to be honest. 12.5 seems like a no-brainer to me. Bears-Packers free pick: Packers -12.5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

  • Falcons-Saints Date: Monday, December 26 at 8:30 PM on ESPN
  • Falcons-Saints Point Spread: Saints -6.5
  • Falcons-Saints Over-Under Odds: 53
  • Falcons-Saints Spread Pick: The Falcons are on a roll right now. So are the Saints. Here are the scores of the last handful of games between these teams: 26-23 (in Atlanta); 17-14 (in Atlanta); 27-24 (in New Orleans); 35-27 (in New Orleans); 26-23 (in Atlanta). The moral of the story is that usually when these two teams get together in a dome, it’s close. Atlanta is playing well enough that we shouldn’t expect a blowout. Falcons-Saints free pick: Falcons +6.5

Lock of the Week

So, which of these games do I feel the best about? The Atlanta-New Orleans game.

I realize that if you break my quick score analysis from above down further that one of the two games in New Orleans would have exceeded a 6.5 point spread. I don’t particularly care about that. These are two dome teams who play eachother close in domes. Period. The Saints may well win because they are in their dome; in fact, they probably will. But Atlanta still has a lot to play for, and when they have both Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy their offense is almost as good as the Saints’.

Get ready for a fun game between these two teams, but don’t expect a blowout either way. 6.5 points is way too much to trust New Orleans with against a team that almost always plays them very, very tough.

About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

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