Bettor’s Guide: NFL Thanksgiving Week 12 Picks, Point Spreads, and Over-Under Odds

Update: All but one of the spreads are in now. Post updated with the late-addition spreads and my picks.

Damnit.

Another subpar week (4-7-2) has me at 72-78-7 for the season, a winning percentage of 45.9%. That just sucks. We all figured this season would be a bit unpredictable because of the lockout, and certainly it has been (the 49ers are 9-1!!!), but I never thought I’d struggle this much.

It’s time for a strong finish down the stretch, beginning with this week’s Thanksgiving Day games.

nfl-picks-thanksgiving-week-12-point-spreads-odds-free-picks-ats-over-undersKeith put together a great preview of the three Thanksgiving Day games. We’ll have individual previews of each game coming on Wednesday too. I know speak for pretty much every NFL fan when I say that I can’t wait for these three games, all of which have the potential to be exciting.

Seriously, how can you not be excited to see Green Bay take their undefeated record into upstart Detroit? And how can you not be thrilled to re-live one of the great Thanksgiving Day memories ever – Leon Lett in the snow?

And, of course, the nightcap – which features the only meeting in NFL history of head coaching brothers, John and Jim Harbaugh. How can you not be pumped for that??

Shoot, I may even eat a little less just to be sure I don’t fall asleep before that 49ers-Ravens game. (Famous last words…)

Now let’s make some cotton-picking picks.

A couple of quick things to keep in mind:

  • No teams are on bye!
  • All times are ET.
  • All spread info as of Tuesday. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.

Now here are your Week 12 picks, along with the point spreads and over-under odds for each game.

NFL Week 12 Bettor’s Guide – Thanksgiving Week

Picks – Point Spreads – Over-Under Odds -

Free Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

  • Packers-Lions Date, Time, and TV: Thursday, November 24th at 12:30 ET on FOX
  • Packers-Lions Point Spread: Packers -6
  • Packers-Lions Over-Under Odds: 55.5
  • Packers-Lions Spread Pick: My first instinct was to take the Packers and lay the points, for what it’s worth. But I’m going against my instinct here. I think the Lions have been thinking about this game, perhaps more subconsciously than consciously, ever since they were beaten at home by the 49ers. This team has enough talent that when it’s focused it can beat anyone in the NFL. The Packers haven’t lost in almost a year and the law of averages (and the NFL) will catch up to them at some point. Why not Thanksgiving, in Detroit, against a team riding high on the momentum of their second half last week? If nothing else, it’ll be close. Packers-Lions free pick: Lions +6

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys

  • Dolphins-Cowboys Date, Time, and TV: Thursday, November 24th at 4:15 ET on CBS
  • Dolphins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -7
  • Dolphins-Cowboys Over-Under Odds: 44
  • Dolphins-Cowboys Spread Pick: Miami has won three in row, but they haven’t really beaten anyone. Dallas has rolled, as usual, in November, but their play has been up and down. Both teams recently trounced Buffalo. I think Dallas wins but Miami keeps it close, as they are wont to do. Dolphins-Cowboys free pick: Dolphins +7

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

  • 49ers-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Thursday, November 24th at 8:20 ET on NFLN
  • 49ers-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -3.5
  • 49ers-Ravens Over-Under Odds: 38.5
  • 49ers-Ravens Spread Pick: The Harbaugh Bowl! This one is going to be fun. Two of the three best scoring defenses in the NFL meet up in this one. One, the 49ers, are coming off an easy win over Arizona. The other, the Ravens, is coming off a much tougher divisional matchup. I expect San Fran to be a bit fresher, and seeing as how scoring will be at a premium 3.5 points seems like an awful lot. I want the points here, especially when I get them with a team that has been so good on the road this year. 49ers-Ravens free pick: 49ers +3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

  • Vikings-Falcons Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Vikings-Falcons Point Spread: Falcons -9.5
  • Vikings-Falcons Over-Under Odds: 44
  • Vikings-Falcons Spread Pick: The Vikings will likely play this game without Adrian Peterson, and they will also not be in the friendly confines of the Metrodome as they were last week when they nearly came back on Oakland. Atlanta enjoys one of the best homefield advantages in all of the NFL, and I have a hard time seeing how the AD-less Vikings will be able to keep this one close. Vikings-Falcons free pick: Falcons -9.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans

  • Buccaneers-Titans Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Buccaneers-Titans Point Spread: Titans -3.5
  • Buccaneers-Titans Over-Under Odds: 42.5
  • Buccaneers-Titans Spread Pick: If you lay any money on this game, with these two totally unpredictable teams, you are an absolute fool. I won’t even waste time analyzing. Give me the points and let’s move on. Buccaneers-Titans free pick: Buccaneers +3.5

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

  • Cardinals-Rams Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Cardinals-Rams Point Spread: No spread as of Wednesday as we await word on Arizona’s starting QB
  • Cardinals-Rams Over-Under Odds:
  • Cardinals-Rams Spread Pick:

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts

  • Panthers-Colts Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Panthers-Colts Point Spread: Panthers -3.5
  • Panthers-Colts Over-Under Odds: 44.5
  • Panthers-Colts Spread Pick: The Colts are running out of chances to get wins this season. I’m tempted to take the points here, with Indy being at home and all, and Carolina’s defense looking absolutely awful, but I think the difference between Cam Newton and Curtis Painter is enough to trust the Panthers to win this one by more than a field goal. Panthers-Colts free pick: Panthers -3.5

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Browns-Bengals Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Browns-Bengals Point Spread: Bengals -9
  • Browns-Bengals Over-Under Odds: 37.5
  • Browns-Bengals Spread Pick: Cleveland isn’t good, but they do have a pretty good defense, and they do tend to play the Bengals pretty tightly. Cincinnati is coming off of two emotional divisional games, and it would only be natural for them to have a bit of a letdown after dropping games to the Steelers and Ravens and cementing themselves in third place. Browns-Bengals free pick: Browns +9

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Texans-Jaguars Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Texans-Jaguars Point Spread: Texans -3.5
  • Texans-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 37.5
  • Texans-Jaguars Spread Pick: This will be a mighty interesting game with Matt Leinart taking his first meaningful snaps in a while. If Jacksonville had a competent quarterback, I would take them with the points. They don’t, however, so the Arian Foster-Ben Tate running back duo will be able to do enough to give the Texans a comfortable win. Texans-Jaguars free pick: Texans -3.5

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

  • Bills-Jets Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Bills-Jets Point Spread: Jets -9
  • Bills-Jets Over-Under Odds: 42.5
  • Bills-Jets Spread Pick: The Bills have looked absolutely horrendous recently. The Jets haven’t looked great either, but at least they aren’t getting embarrassed off of the field. Until Buffalo plays someone close again, I’m going to assume that all of their losses will be by double digits. Ahh…the real Bills are back! Bills-Jets free pick: Jets -9

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

  • Redskins-Seahawks Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 4:05 ET on FOX
  • Redskins-Seahawks Point Spread: Seahawks -4
  • Redskins-Seahawks Over-Under Odds: 37.5
  • Redskins-Seahawks Spread Pick: Seattle has been playing surprisingly well recently, and they typically give a good performance at home. Washington just played about as well as it could play and lost by three at home. With Washington in Seattle, I look for the Seahawks to be able to rack up another victory, and to do so by more than 4. Redskins-Seahawks free pick: Seahawks -4

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

  • Bears-Raiders Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 4:05 ET on FOX
  • Bears-Raiders Point Spread: Raiders -4.5
  • Bears-Raiders Over-Under Odds: 41.5
  • Bears-Raiders Spread Pick: Jay Cutler’s injury really hurts the Bears. Outside of the Packers and 49ers, no team has been playing better football recently than Chicago. Caleb Hanie now takes over at QB, and while he filled in ably for Cutler in last year’s NFC Championship game, it’s tough to know what to expect from him. I do think we can expect the Bears’ defense and special teams to step up though, and I think that will be enough to keep this game close against a Raiders team that damn near gave last week’s game to Minnesota away even with Adrian Peterson on the bench. Bears-Raiders free pick: Bears +4.5

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Patriots-Eagles Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 4:15 ET on CBS
  • Patriots-Eagles Point Spread: Patriots -3
  • Patriots-Eagles Over-Under Odds: No O/U as of Wednesday
  • Patriots-Eagles Spread Pick: We still don’t know the quarterback will be for the Eagles; either way, I think they are winning this game. That’s right, winning. The Patriots have opened up a commanding lead in the AFC East and don’t need to play as if their backs are up against the wall. Philly does, and I think we’re starting to see pride take over as this supposed “dream team” dances on the edge of their 2011 mortality. Even winning out may not be enough to get them into playoffs, but I expect an inspired effort at home, and a W. Patriots-Eagles free pick: Eagles +3

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

  • Broncos-Chargers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 4:15 ET on CBS
  • Broncos-Chargers Point Spread: Chargers -6.5
  • Broncos-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 43.5
  • Broncos-Chargers Spread Pick: Are you kidding? The Broncos are playing everyone tough, and winning, with Tim Tebow at QB. And it’s not as much about Tebow as it is about their opportunistic, pass-rushing defense. With Philip Rivers looking totally out of sorts, and Norv Turner inspiring little hope, why exactly should be trust the Chargers with a touchdown’s worth of points here? Why? If I did bet actual money on NFL games, this is the game I’d place it on this week. Broncos-Chargers free pick: Broncos +6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Steelers-Chiefs Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, November 27th at 8:20 ET on NBC
  • Steelers-Chiefs Point Spread: Steelers -10.5
  • Steelers-Chiefs Over-Under Odds: 39.5
  • Steelers-Chiefs Spread Pick: The Steelers are rested coming off of their bye, and the Chiefs will still have Tyler Palko at QB and have been playing terrible for over a month now. Lay the points with the Steelers. Steelers-Chiefs free pick: Steelers -10.5

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

  • Giants-Saints Date, Time, and TV: Monday, November 28th at 8:30 ET on ESPN
  • Giants-Saints Point Spread: Saints -7
  • Giants-Saints Over-Under Odds: 51.5
  • Giants-Saints Spread Pick: Should be a fun one. Expect lots and lots of scoring as two of the NFL’s best QBs go at it. Are we in the midst of yet another late-season swoon by the Giants? Perhaps. One thing is for sure: they better figure out how to balance their offense with some running, or they are going to be in some pretty big trouble. I’m tempted to pick the Saints here, but I have enough faith in the underrated Eli Manning to think he at least gives his team a chance to win late. Giants-Saints free pick: Giants +7


About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

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