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Now on to week 13.
A Quick Piece of Advice…One More Time
There is no room left for excuses. At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries. We have ALL battled through our bye weeks. We have ALL left points on the table.
If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year: listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.
Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time. It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game. If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”
However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.
If you have a gut feeling that Ryan Grant is going to run all over the Giants this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it! Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms. Believe me, you will hate yourself if Grant goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.
If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.
Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 25 (68 %)
- Hits: Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, Mike Tolbert, KC Running Backs, Percy Harvin, Laurent Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Devin Hester, Jermichael Finley
- Misses: Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Garcon (picked the wrong Colt), Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, Kellen Winslow
Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: QB
Start Em QB: Tim Tebow
Fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been reeling lately without Adrian Peterson.
Tebow and the Broncos will be playing in the dome up in Minnesota, which means both he AND Von Miller will play even faster. I expect Tebow to run wild and for Miller and the incredibly fast Broncos’ defense to force several turnovers.
If Tebow gets a few shots with a short field, he should put up a lot of points this week.
Still not convinced? He’s 21st in points this year…after starting only 6 games. He’s only 11 points behind Jay Cutler. Tebow is a must-start right now as the fantasy playoffs approach…amazing.
Tim Tebow Fantasy Projections for Week 13: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD.
Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:
- Philly QB – Whether it’s Vick or Young, I think that the Eagles will explode in a game that doesn’t matter.
- Tony Romo – In Arizona, against their atrocious secondary.
- Alex Smith – Enticing matchup against St. Louis in a game that the 49ers want to win big in order to get their mojo back.
Sit Em QB: Matt Ryan
You might be tempted to start Matty Ice this week since Houston will be starting T.J. Yates with Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings. While it’s true that Atlanta should get more chances than normal, Houston’s defense is one of the top five units in the league, and should make it incredibly tough sledding on Matt Ryan.
If Houston can control clock at all with their fantastic running game, Matt Ryan owners will be in for a long afternoon.
Matt Ryan Week 13 Fantasy Projection: 220 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:
- Andy Dalton – He’s really good…but so is Pittsburgh’s defense.
- QB’s in the KC/Chi game – LOL…don’t even look at this game.
Jerod’s thoughts:
I’ve been skeptical of Tebow from a fantasy standpoint ever since he took over the starting job, mostly because I worried about him getting pulled. But with a 5-1 record, the playoffs in reach, and Kyle Orton gone, Tebow is safe through the end of the year. And this is a great matchup, even though Minnesota’s strength is against the run. I’d play him.
I agree that Ryan’s potential is a bit muted this week. Loved him last week, lukewarm on him this week.
Tony Romo is a top 5 fantasy QB this week. Start him. With confidence. (Which means, since it’s Romo, that you should expect him to suck. Because wouldn’t that just be the Romo thing to do?)
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: RBs
Start Em RB: LeGarrette Blount
Blount is ranked 30th overall among fantasy running backs right now, so that makes him on the cusp of starting nearly every single week. This week, he’s a must start against Carolina.
In fact, Blount may have the best fantasy week among ALL running backs in week 13.
Carolina’s run defense is so bad they made Donald Brown relevant last week. Just imagine what someone with actual talent will do against them.
LeGarrette Blount’s Week 13 Projected Stats: 180 rushing yards, 2 TD; 55 receiving yards
Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:
- LeSean McCoy – If he only gets ten rushes this week, we will all light ourselves on fire.
- Chris Johnson – He’s back, and facing the Buffalo defense. Big week again for CJ2K.
- Denver Broncos….duh.
Sit Em RB: Shonn Greene
I admit that this is a complete hunch. I try to base nearly all of my predictions on statistical evidence or game play that I have actually seen…but I feel compelled to put Shonn Greene on the bench this week.
First of all, Washington has a pretty decent defense, especially on the ground (13th in yards per attempt). Secondly, I really think that they will try to make Mark Sanchez win two consecutive games. I really don’t think anyone will be fooled by his 4-TD performance last week.
Washington will force Sanchez to do it again in order for NY to win. He might. But Shonn Greene will have another lackluster effort.
Shonn Greene Week 13 Projection: 45 yards rushing
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Thirteen:
- Rashard Mendenhall – Pitt will have to win this game through the air against the Bengals.
- Detroit Running Backs – On the road in New Orleans…if this game isn’t high scoring, that means that the Saints won big.
Wow, recommending Chris Johnson two straight weeks. I can’t believe it’s true, but it is. He seems safe. (Of course, what I really can’t believe is true is how quickly confidence has been lost in CJ. But such is the case when you have a season like he’s had.)
Be careful sitting Mendenhall. Certainly he hasn’t lived to the billing of a top 5 back (like some idiot analysts predicted before the season started…analysts who will remain nameless to protect our pride here at MSF) but he always has the potential for 80-90 yards and a score. That’s tough to find with a high degree of confidence this late in the season.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: WRs
Start Em WR: Antonio Brown
He has been a little hit or miss lately, but I think that he will have a great game against Cincinnati this week.
Brown is an absolute terror from the slot, and Cincinnati will definitely be trying to limit Mendenhall on the ground and Mike Wallace from any big plays.
Watch for Brown to play extremely well.
Antonio Brown fantasy football Week 13 projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:
- Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from the last two weeks…I still feel the same way, even though Miles Austin could play this week.)
- Eric Decker – If Tebow throws for more yards, and I think he will, Decker will definitely be the number one recipient.
- Vincent Jackson – This game might as well be meaningless for San Diego…so they should win by 60.
Sit Em WR: Dwyane Bowe
The Bears defense is good…and Tyler Palko is almost as good as me.
No…I’m not good at all.
Dwyane Bowe fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards
Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Thirteen:
- Julio Jones – Bad day for Matt Ryan AND him…Roddy White is the only ATL non-RB I like this week.
- Brandon Lloyd – I don’t know if you have heard, but San Francisco’s defense is really good.
I love Antonio Brown and am always willing to find an excuse to sit Dwayne Bowe, so I concur with those picks.
As for Lloyd, I love the 49ers defense, but I also love #1 WRs who have the trust of their QB. St. Louis will have to throw the ball, which means plenty of targets for Lloyd. Careful sitting him. He’s not a top 10 WR this week, but I think he’s still top 20.
Any #1 receiver against Minnesota is a good play, so Decker gets the nod this week.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: TEs
Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
The Tampa defense will do their best to limit Steve Smith this week, and Olsen will reap the benefits.
Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 13 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
Sit Em TE: Owen Daniels
A lot of times, young QB’s = good days for Tight Ends. But boy, is TJ Yates low on the totem pole. Sure, he may not be Jake Delhomme, but…oh wait.
That’s right. Jake Delhomme.
I will stop talking right now.
Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 13 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD
One could also make the case that the young QB (or the old one, if Delhomme sees any action) will rely on his tight end more. Still, I wouldn’t trust any Houston pass catchers this week, and that includes Andre Johnson.
I continue to like Vernon Davis down the stretch, so consider him a top-10 option. Brent Celek is also a guy who is playing well and warrants consideration.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: D/ST
Start Em D/ST: Denver Broncos
Who would have thought that by Week 13 Tim Tebow would be a must-start and the Broncos’ defense would also be a must-start? Well, it’s happened. And with Denver’s relentless pass rush and solid secondary facing rookie Christian Ponder with perhaps no Adrian Peterson, the Broncos are a good choice yet again.
Denver Broncos fantasy football Week 13 projection: 14 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers
Other start ‘em D/ST units:
- The Patriots’ D is facing Indy. Start ‘em!
- Atlanta’s defense is a sneaky start this week. Their strength is stopping the run, which is what Houston does well. Surely they’ll be able to contain T.J. Yates. If you think Atlanta can hold Foster and Tate down, they’re worthy of starting.
Sit Em S/ST: Green Bay Packers and New York Giants
The Packers’ D isn’t a terrible option because they do force turnovers, but I expect this game to be high scoring with both quarterbacks putting up very good numbers. There just isn’t a lot of upside here on either side.
Packers and Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: Lots of points, lots of yards, a few turnovers for the Packers
Other sit ‘em D/ST units:
- Jacksonville’s season is over, their coach just got fired, and the Chargers come in trying to salvage some pride. I think they do, and put up a lot of primetime points on the Jags in the process.
- I was high on Seattle’s defense last week, then they gave up 20+ points at home to Washington. Philly and all of its weapons comes a calling this week. No thanks.
**********
Good luck in Week 13 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.
And remember: Go here and leave a comment! By doing so, you’ll be entered to win tickets to the Big Ten Championship game! (And enter quickly. We have to choose a winner tomorrow early afternoon.)
About Jon Washburn
do u start peterson if he is a go and not a game time decision. Also start 2 wrs fitz,b lloyd,aj green, antonio brown. also start 2 rbs all day or gerhart if peterson is a game time decision,kevin smith,shonne green,ryan mathews. I plan getting tenn d should i go with them or pitts this week
Yes. I always start Peterson if he takes the field.
I'd play Pittsburgh's D.
good morning guys,
So who do you think has a bigger week this week… Romo or Stafford?
Also, both New England and Denver are available. I picked up New england yesterday, but would you start Denver over them?
Here is how my lineup sits currently:
QB- Stafford
WR- Megatron, Mike Wallace, Laurent Robinson
RB- Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush
TE- Hernandez ( Greg Olsen is available)
Def- New england
Bench
QB- Romo, Matt Ryan
RB- Mendenhall, Spiller
WR- Reggie Wayne, James Jones, Breaston, Doucet
TE- Pettigrew
Let me know what you think
I like Romo. The matchup is just too awesome.
I would not start Denver D this week since Von Miller is out.
I'd also play Mendy over Reggie Bush, as he is more likely to score I think.
Otherwise, everything looks good!
start 3 wr non ppr harvin,b lloyd,aj green,fitz or antonio brown if you only like 2 wr who do you play as flex ryan matthews, shonne green, kevin smith, all day peterson if healthy and not game time decision or toby gerhart
First off, if Peterson takes the field, you play him. No question.
At WR, I like Fitz, Lloyd, and Brown myself. And I like them better than your RB options.
Need some help Jerod.
QB: Romo/Tebow
WR: Maclin/Green/Marshall/Bennett (need 3 and waiver wire is scarce)
RB: Rice/Bradshaw/Morris/Smith/McGahee
TE: Finley (M. Lewis is available)
K: Kasay
D/ST: Cincy/Dallas
At 6-6 and holding on to that last playoff spot somehow. Lost 5 of my last 6. Thoughts??
QB: Romo (v Arizona? Slam dunk)
WR: Maclin/Green/Marshall
RB: Rice and McGahee
TE: Finley
D: Dallas
Last game of the Reg season, want to finish strong.
Need 3 Wr: Antonio Brown, Aquan Boldin, James Jones, Nate Washington, Miles Austin (looks like hes going to play, and against Arizona)
2 RB: Since DMC is probably out again, I was looking at Blount and BJGE, but I have Hillis on the bench.
I'd play Brown, Boldin, and Austin – if he plays. If not, go with Jones.
Blount and BjGE for sure.
Hardest decision ever. who do I start? I have ADP but he is hurt so I am starting Michael Bush and Ahmad Bradshaw (assuming he is starting). 1 flex 2 wrs Greg Jennings (probably automatic start) here is my problem Roddy White, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Laurent Robinson, and Jonny Knox. I either go with old reliables in Green and Roddy White, or the guys producing in the past few weeks Jonny Knox, Laurent Robinson and Antonio Brown. Very hard.
Indeed it is hard, but a good problem to have. I think you have to play Roddy White, but Green is okay to sit considering the matchup (PIT). I don't trust Knox or the Bears' QB, so that nixes him. It comes down to Brown and Robinson. I'd play Robinson. Austin isn't practicing yet and the Arizona secondary is very inviting.
Hey guys I have 3 WRs and only two spots for them: I have Bowe, Laurent Robinson, and Antonio Brown. Which two do you suggest I start? I have another option available in which I play all 3 and move my flex player (sproles) into Mendenhalls spot and sit Mendenhall. What do you suggest?
Thanks in advance for your help
Ben-Jam-In
I would play Mendy and sit Bowe. The Bears D is good and it looks like Palko is starting again.
Pick 2 for flex: A Brown, N Washington, Morris(if kevin doesnt start), stevie Johnson?
Thanks!
Brown and Stevie
If Smith is able to start Sunday, do you think I should start him instead one of those?
Yes, if Smith starts I'd play him over Stevie.
Hi Guys
Looking for some dept at RB STD FLEX
Current Roster: Mendy, Wells, Helu Bench :McFadden, K. Smih ,Hunter
WWire (Gerhart & D. Brown)
ALSO WRS: Bryant , AJ, DA Williams, TB Willams , AUSTN Need 2
WWire (Mario, D. Baldwin, Knox, Moss,Doucet) – IS THERE ANYONE ON WIRE I SHOULD
SWAP OUT?
IS Hunter is my only dropable player?
Thanks JMOST
Yes, Hunter is your most droppable. I suppose you could add Donald Brown, but why? He's not good enough to start for you, and Hunter has more upside if anything happens to Gore. Your WRs are fine.
QBs: Rivers @Jax, Palmer @ Miami, or Vince Young @ Seattle?
Which RB would you sit: Rice @ Cleveland, Bush @Miami, Mathews @Jax, Blount vs. Carolina
(I could also bench two RBs but I don't think my WRs are good enough for that — I'm starting AJ Green @ Pitt and Dez vs. Arizona; also have Lloyd @ SF and Andre vs. Atlanta)
TE: Graham vs. Detroit (27th least points to TEs) or Witten vs. Arizona's (lack of a) secondary
QB: Think I'd roll with Vince; lots of upside against Seattle
RB: I'd sit Mathews, who I don't trust
TE: How did you end up with both of those guys??? I'd probably go with Witten because of the matchup, but it's a toss up. Both are excellent.
Jon,
In a standard league, do you play Andre Johnson or Laurent Robinson at WR this week? Thanks bro!
I'd find it very hard to sit Laurent Robinson against Arizona's secondary. He's been outstanding, and AJ still has to get rapport with Yates.
Team 2: STD***
Need to Pick 2 RBs 1 Flex and 2 WRs.
((Turner, Blount,R. Bush, Benson, AP ))
((J. Nelson, Cruz, Colston, Julio jones, Marshall, L. Robinson))
Team 3: STD***
Need to Pick 2 RBs 1 Flex and 2 WRs.
((Turner, Blount,R. Bush, Benson, AP ))
((J. Nelson, Cruz, Colston, Julio jones, Marshall, L. Robinson))
Sorry in advance for all the Questions' JMOST
Team 2:
RB AP if he plays; Turner, Blount
Flex Jordy Nelson
WR Cruz, Robinson
Team 3:
It looks like the exact same question…
Team 4 STD No Flex;
Need to Pick 2 RBs and 3 WRs.
((MJD, Tolbert, Gerhart or Hillis))
((C. Johnson, S. Smith Car, AJ Green, Julio J, N icks, Colston))
Team 5
Playing Jennings and Marshall Need 1 RB & 1Flex
((Mathews, Mendy, Bryant, Colston, Crabtree, Decker))
Team 4:
MJD and Tolbert
CJ, Smith, Nicks
Team 5:
Mendy and Colston
Team 6
Nicks , Mario, Colston or L. ROB need 2
VD or Gates this week?
STEW, Tolbert, Mathews or Wells need 2
Team 7 STD
R. Bush, Wells & Turner Need 2 STD
Team 6
Nicks and LRob
Gates
Stew and Wells
Team 7
Wells, Turner
Team 8 STD Flex;
Need to Pick 2 RBs , flex and 2 WRs.
((Foster, Blount, Lynch, R. Bush, K. Smith))
((Jennings, Colston, L. ROB, S. Johnson)
Thanks JMOST
Foster, Blount
Jennings, LRob
Lynch
Hey guys,
I have a good problem here. I have Megatron, Antonio Brown, Laurent Robinson, Boldin, Desean Jackson as my WRs. Which 3 do I start? My thinking is that if Austin is back that I sit Robinson. Currently I have my lineup as Megatron, Brown and Jackson.
Also, I'm thinking of starting Helu over Sproles this week. Am I crazy? I'm in a 0.5PPR league, by the way.
Thanks for your help as always.
I would not automatically sit Robinson if Austin comes back. Here in Dallas the talk is that Austin's return will hurt Dez more than LRob, who Tony Romo has come to trust. If I were you, I'd play Megatron, Brown, and LRob. They've been the most consistent.
I would not start Helu over Sproles. I don't trust Mike Shanahan or inconsistent rookies nearly enough to do that.
Good Morning guys
I have 2 leagues and in both of which I am unsure about my QB:
- Newton or Romo
- Moore or Freeman or Dalton
Also, what about Mendenhall or BJGE? It's hard not to go with anyone playing Indy.
Finally, my WRs are all over the place. Cruz, Meachem, Manningham, Bennett and Little. Which 3 do I start? I have Cruz, Manningham and Bennett in now, but Manningham may not play and Bennett didn't get much action last week with Hanie throwing the ball. Meachem got me another goose egg last week so I'm hesitant with him.
Any help would be appreciated.
Thanks
I'd play Newton against Tampa Bay's terrible D. He can beat you running and throwing.
In the other league, I'd go with Moore against Oakland unless Freeman starts practicing towards the end of the week.
Play BJGE. He should have a strong day.
Cruz for sure. I think Manningham is also a good bet v Green Bay. And then I think you have to go Little. He drops passes, but he gets the most targets of those guys.
Hey Jerod,
Who would you start at QB: Stafford or Matt Ryan
Need to Pick 2 RB's: Peterson, Wells, Jacobs, Mathews, or Morris
Need one TE: Winslow or Pettigrew
Also, would you start Mike Williams (TB) over Fitzgerald, White, or Marshall
I'd start Stafford against New Orleans.
At RB, play Peterson if he's out there. Wells and Mathews would be the next two, since Bradshaw is supposed to be back.
Winslow at TE.
Hmm…I still like Williams, but I wouldn't play him over those dudes.
Hey Guys
An embarrassment of riches at flex this week. Who should I start- Beanie, Mendenhall, Nicks, Aaron Hernandez or Reggie Wayne?
Also- Packer D over Tenn D if Nicks/Manningham/ and Bradshaw dont play?
Thanks- as always
Wow. I'll say. I don't like Beanie against Dallas despite his big game last week. Mendy also scares me against Cincy. I'd play Nicks. Great matchup v Green Bay in what should be a shootout. Play the Packers D though…they'll get sacks and turnovers.
need to start 2 rbs out of mendy, matthews, and bjge? Which 2 should I start? I know bjge is going against indy but I don’t trust the hoodie! Help!
I'd play BJGE. He's rounding into form and the matchup is too awesome. He and Mendy.
Hey guys,
I just need help with my flex position. I don’t really feel like I can lose on this one but I just want to put the best team together as possible for the most points (like always of course).
Who do I start in flex out of Michael Bush, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Gates, Kevin Smith?
Starting WRs are Smith (CAR) and Cruz. TE Graham. RBs Foster, Blount. Also, would you sub anyone in for them?
Thanks in advance for the advice,
Scott
Wow, great options. I think as long as DMC is out, Bush has to be the choice. And their WRs have been inconsistent, so they'll keep leaning on the run game.
Your starters look great.
Hello guys,
Please help with a few positions…
QB: Matt Ryan or Tim Tebow
Flex: Kevin Smith or Roy Helu
WR2: Dwayne Bowe, Nate Washington, or Santana Moss
TE: Jake Ballard or Jermaine Gresham
Thanks in advance,
Josh
Also,
DEF: Cincinnati or Tennessee
I feel like all my options are border line. It looks as if Smith is starting. Would you put him in?
I like Cincy. They are more consistent, and they have some great matchups moving forward. As for Smith, he's a good play if he plays. Just track it tomorrow.
Ryan is on the road against a tough D; I'd play Tebow. At flex, I like Helu over the gimpy Smith. At WR, I'd go Bowe. Just don't trust the other two. Gresham at TE, he's more explosive.
Gresham or WInslow?
I like Winslow myself. The matchup is outstanding.
Hi…
QB: Big Ben or Tebow
2 WR: Laurant Robinson, Antonio Brown, Deion Branch, Earl Bennett
2 RB: Beanie, Steven Jackson, Maurice Morris, Donald Brown
1 TE: Gresham or Kellen Winslow
1 Flex:
THANK YOU!!
I think I'd go with Tebow against Minnesota. He's just been so damn consistent as a fantasy contributor and Big Ben has to face Cincy. At WR, I think you go LRob and Brown. At RB, Beanie and…SJax. Even playing San Fran, he's better than Brown and Morris likely won't start. At TE, I like Winslow going against Carolina. At flex, I'd probably go with Branch against Indy.
start 2 out of 3 rb gerhart, ryan matthews, or shonne greene non ppr
I'd go with Mathews and Greene. I know Gerhart scored a TD last week, but he was worthless otherwise. Tough to count on a TD from him two weeks in a row against a defense that has been playing well.
Hey guys,
Need some fantasy advice for Wk 13.
QB – Freeman, Moore, or Smith?
RB – Wells, D. Williams or Donald Brown?
Thanks in advance!
Max