There are many different factors that make fantasy football difficult: bye weeks; injuries; random lucky days for your opponent; and worst of all, Chris Johnson.
In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.
What do I mean?
Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players - every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.
Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?
I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?
Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days. (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you. I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)
[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]
In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park. Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.
Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.
As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal. As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile. No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.
Once again, I can’t talk about this enough. Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?” Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything. Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600. When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it. I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money. Boy was I wrong. Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her. Then, I get annoyed. In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.
Anyways, Verizon has helped me to stay current, and even better they have offered the MSF readers something spectacular:
Let me just repeat that again to make sure you noticed:
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One lucky MSF fantasy reader will get TWO free tickets to this weekend’s Colts/Jaguars game in Lucas Oil Stadium. All you need to do is comment on the bottom of this page in order to enter.
Yes, it’s as easy as asking a start/sit question about your fantasy team, which you probably were going to do anyway.
Just be sure to tag your comment with #indy so we know you can actually go to the game if you win.
Scroll to the bottom for more details, but believe me you won’t want to miss this crazy awesome opportunity.
As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks. (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)
Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)
- Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
- Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.
Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback
Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)
Is Dallas’ defense better this year? Yes.
Has it regressed in recent weeks? Yes.
Is their passing defense still below average? Yes.
Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree? Who knows. I think he is. And I think that he’s a must-start this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.
- Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
- Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense. Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
- Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.
Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)
I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.
I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field. Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year. And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.
Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs. 8 sacks.
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:
- Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
- Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.
I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.
I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.
As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.
Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back
Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)
Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year. He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run. With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.
I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.
DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:
- All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
- Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock. Expect Turner to have a great game.
Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)
He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately. The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment. Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.
I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays. Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.
Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:
- Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
- Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.
Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.
As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?
Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.
Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.
And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?
Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.
Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver
Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)
He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.
Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process. This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.
Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:
- Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
- Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season. Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.
Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)
At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current. However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.
Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day. I shouldn’t have to say anything else.
Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches
I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.
Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:
- AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
- You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
- Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.
As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends
Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)
San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.
Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:
- Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.
Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)
May he Rest In Peace.
Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD
Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.
As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.
As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.
Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses
[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]
Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)
The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.
Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers
Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:
- I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
- The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.
Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)
I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?
Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.
Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover
- Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
- Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.
There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.
Oh yes…the contest. Here is the deal:
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