Big Ten-ACC Challenge Preview: Matchups, TV Schedule, and Predictions

The 13th annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge tips of on Tuesday, and after 10 years of disappointment the Big Ten is looking to extend its own winning streak to three.

For the first time, both leagues have the same number of teams, so there are 12 games on this year’s slate.  (In the event of a 6-6 tie, the Big Ten will retain the Commissioner’s Cup in case you were wondering.  Spoiler alert: That shouldn’t be an issue.)

Here’s a look at the schedule for the two-day event.  I also wrote a preview for Run The Floor, which focuses more on advanced metrics and is a bit snarkier since the Managing Editor there is an ACC guy.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Tuesday, Nov 29th

———-

#15 Michigan at Virginia – 7:00 EST (ESPN2)

Expect this one to be played at a painfully slow pace, but the tip time is early enough that it shouldn’t put you to sleep. Virginia is among the most efficient teams on the defense end, while Michigan is just outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency, so something has to give.

tim-hardaway-jr-big-ten-acc-challenge-preview-matchups-predictions-tv-scheduleThe Wolverines have played better competition thanks to their time in Maui, while the Cavaliers recently returned from the Paradise Jam where they rebounded to win two games after a disappointing loss to TCU in the tournament opener.  UVA big man Mike Scott could give Michigan some trouble inside, but both teams are largely perimeter-oriented in terms of their personnel.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the best player on the floor, but I also like the contributions Michigan is getting from veterans Zach Novak and Stu Douglass as well as freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Still, the Wolverines have struggled to defend the three-point shot, and Virginia excelled from long range last season.

The other red flag has been Michigan’s propensity to put their opponents on the free throw line, and their 13th-ranked free throw rate suggests the Cavaliers will be able to take advantage of that deficiency.  I expect a close game, with Virginia having the slight edge based on concerns about Michigan’s defense.

  • Prediction: Virginia

Northwestern at Georgia Tech – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Both of these teams participated in the Charleston Classic with Northwestern winning the tournament and the Jackets finishing 1-2.  It’s worth noting they played one of those games without leading scorer Glen Rice Jr., who was wrapping up a three-game suspension.  At 17.7 points per game, Rice leads five Georgia Tech players averaging over 8.0 points, but they aren’t getting much outside of those five guys.

Defense has been the Yellow Jackets’ calling card so far, but they will be tested by the duo of John Shurna and Drew Crawford, who have combined to score better than 40 points per game so far.  Keep an eye on how freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski handles Georgia Tech’s defense, as that will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

The other area to monitor is Northwestern’s ability to limit second shots.  The Jackets have posted a strong offensive rebounding percentage and could give the Wildcats trouble on the glass.

  • Prediction: Northwestern

Illinois at Maryland – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

For a number of reasons, the Terps are forced to play mostly young and/or inexperienced players, which has them off to a 3-2 start.  They lost two of their three games in Puerto Rico, to Alabama by 20 and to Iona by 26.

Maryland Sophomore Terrell Stoglin is emerging as a star with 20.2 points per game.  His shooting percentages have dropped across the board, but he’s the clear focal point of the offense with nearly twice as many field goal attempts as any of his teammates.  Maryland’s efficiency numbers have been absolutely brutal on both ends of the floor, leaving little reason for optimism there.

The Illini are also young, so neither team has a clear advantage in that regard.  Junior guard D.J. Richardson is off to a good start with 13.5 points per game to go with 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc.  Inside, soph big man Meyers Leonard is posting 12.3 points, 6.8 boards, and an impressive 3.2 blocks per game.  In a game with two relatively inexperienced teams, Illinois’ defense and inside play should be the difference.

  • Prediction: Illinois

Miami (FL) at Purdue – 9:00 EST (ESPN2)

Had injuries not ravaged the Miami frontcourt, this would be a tougher matchup for Purdue given the composition of their team.

robbie-hummel-purdue-big-ten-acc-challenge-preview-matchups-predictions-tv-scheduleAs it stands, the Canes are 4-1 while relying heavily on their talented backcourt of Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, who combine to average 30.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.  Miami is shooting just 40 percent from the field, which is not a good sign against a Purdue defense ranked in the Top 15 for defensive efficiency.

The Boilers picked up solid wins over Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico before falling to Alabama in the championship, but the best news is that Robbie Hummel looks healthy after missing last season with a knee injury.  He is pacing the team with 19.3 points per game while hitting 46.7 percent from deep.  Sharpshooter Ryne Smith has been red hot for most of the season, and Lewis Jackson has been terrific at the point.

Look for Kelsey Barlow to lock down either Grant or Scott and for the Boilers to emerge victorious.

  • Prediction: Purdue

Clemson at Iowa – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

I won’t blame you if you don’t go out of your way to watch this one.  Clemson has losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina, while Iowa just lost at home by 15 to Campbell.

The Tigers have four players averaging at least 9.8 points, led by guard Andre Young with 14.4 points per contest.  Clemson has been solid defensively, but they haven’t been impressive on offense, particularly in terms of getting to the free throw line.  Of course, they’re only making 64.5 percent once they get there, so maybe it’s by design.

Meanwhile, Iowa has eight players scoring at least 7.2 points per game, and as a team they are hitting over 39 percent from deep.  Like Clemson, they have struggled to get to the stripe, but they have really struggled defensively, and their opponents have routinely shot a high percentage from the field.

  • Prediction: Clemson

#4 Duke at #2 Ohio State – 9:30 EST (ESPN)

This is easily the marquee matchup of the event’s first day.

The Blue Devils should have plenty of confidence coming off of their win in Maui.  Duke is hitting a ridiculous 45.9 percent from beyond the arc so far, led by Seth Curry at 57.1 percent and Andre Dawkins at 44.7.  They are two of the five Blue Devils scoring in double figures, but there hasn’t been a ton of production from others with the notable exception of Tyler Thornton’s two huge three-pointers to seal the win over Kansas.  Duke has been adept at getting to the free throw line, and they have been better than I expected on defense.

aaron-craft-ohio-state-big-ten-acc-challenge-preview-matchups-predictions-tv-scheduleAs for the Buckeyes, they have been outstanding on both ends of the floor, as evidenced by Pomeroy Ratings in the Top Five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Jared Sullinger has picked up right where he left off with 18.8 points and 10.7 rebounds along with 63.3 percent shooting from the field.

Like most teams in college basketball, Duke will have a hard time containing him on the inside.  William Buford complements Sullinger outside where he’s averaging 17.7 points and hitting 50 percent from deep.  Throw in point guard Aaron Craft, who is one of my favorites guys to watch, and you have a really intriguing backcourt matchup between these two squads.

Ohio State has struggled with its long-range shooting, but its defense should be enough to disrupt Duke on offense.

  • Prediction: Ohio State

###

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Wednesday, Nov 30th

———-

Indiana at North Carolina State – 7:15 EST (ESPN2)

While many predicted a rebuilding year for Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack, they have played fairly well so far and came back from a healthy second half deficit to knock off Texas on a neutral floor.  After serving a three-game suspension to start the season, C.J. Leslie has been impressive with 16.7 points, 5.7 boards, 2.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 63.0 percent from the field.  He leads six players scoring in double figures, including point guard Lorenzo Brown who is dishing out 6.5 assists per game as well.  While N.C. State has done a nice job taking care of the ball, they have struggled to hit and defend shots from beyond the arc.

victor-oladipo-cody-zeller-big-ten-acc-challenge-preview-matchups-predictions-tv-scheduleThe Hoosiers are off to their best start in years, thanks in large part to their hot shooting both inside and outside the arc.  Seven players are averaging at least 7.0 points, led by freshman phenom Cody Zeller with 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. The biggest difference for IU has come on the defensive end where they have seen a sharp increase in their turnover rate.  They have also done a much better of job of not putting opponents on the line while getting there with much more regularity on offense.

This will be another solid road test for the Hoosiers but one they seem poised to pass based on their defense and outside shooting.

  • Prediction: Indiana

Penn State at Boston College – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Unless you attended one of these schools or both of the other games are at commercial breaks, you probably aren’t tuning in for this one.

Both teams lost virtually everyone from last season’s rosters and are in full blown rebuilding mode this year.  Both teams have also been woefully inefficient offensively, with Boston College being the worse of the two on the defensive end.

With 19.1 points per game, Penn State guard Tim Frazier is the only Nittany Lion scoring in double figures, and he’s also pacing the team with 7.1 assists.  Freshman Patrick Heckmann leads BC with 13.8 points per game, but tons of questions remain on the roster, particularly once you get past their top four scorers.

Penn State’s offensive rebounding could be the difference in this one, but in the end, I simply can’t write any more about this game.

  • Prediction: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

Like the previous matchup, these two teams are pretty similar.  The difference is that they both aren’t terrible, at least not on both ends of the floor.  These squads are built around defense and rebounding, while both struggle to put points on the board.

Seven Noles are scoring at least 7.0 points per game, but the team is shooting just 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.  The Spartans are actually worse, hitting just 23.8 percent of their triples.  They have also been unable to find a true point guard, which has led to an ugly turnover rate.  Draymond Green is averaging a double-double with 12.7 points and 11.2 rebounds, but his shooting has been poor and he’s trying to do too much on offense.

Aside from the battle on the glass, keep an eye on Florida State’s ability to get to the free throw line.  The Noles have a decent free throw rate, while Michigan State is putting opponents on the line with regularity.  Ultimately it’s hard to see Sparty solving their shooting woes against a team ranked 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I’m pretty sure it’s ok to plagiarize yourself, so as I said in my Run The Floor piece: In short, these two teams are mirror images of one another, which is ironic since watching either one play offense will make you want to break a mirror and start cutting yourself with the shattered pieces.  This one is a toss-up, so give me the home team!

  • Prediction: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota – 9:15 EST (ESPN2)

The Hokies gave Syracuse a scare in the NIT semi-finals before squeaking out a two-point win over Oklahoma State in the consolation game.  Their strength lies in the backcourt with Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson leading the way with over 29 points per game between them.  Freshman wing Dorian Finney-Smith has impressed early in his career and is averaging 10.3 rebounds through six games.  On offense, the Hokies have struggled with turnovers but have done a nice job of getting to the stripe.

For Minnesota, the recent loss of forward Trevor Mbakwe is devastating in every possible way, as everything they did well on offense resulted from his relentlessness inside.  The Gophers are still searching for answers in the backcourt, but juco transfer Julian Welch played well in the Old Spice Classic.

Since the Hokies have struggled to force turnovers, it seems unlikely they will be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s biggest weakness, and without Mbakwe the Gophers will struggle to exploit Va Tech’s weakness on the offensive glass.  Instead, they will end up shooting more from the perimeter, where the Hokies are at their best on defense.

  • Prediction: Virginia Tech

Wake Forest at Nebraska – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

On the surface, this would appear to be another matchup of two teams picked to finish in the bottom of each league.

OK, that’s actually what it is, but I do think Nebraska could surprise a few teams in the Big Ten.  They have a pair of talented guards in Bo Spencer and Dylan Talley, who are averaging a combined 28.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, to go with Jorge Brian Diaz inside.  Outside of solid shooting, their offensive efficiency numbers aren’t impressive, as they struggle to get to the line or grab offensive boards.  The Huskers also don’t force many turnovers, but otherwise they’ve been solid defensively.

The Demon Deacons are coming off of a 8-24 season and just went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic.  C.J. Harris and Travis McKie each score better than 19 points per game and pace the offense.  Outside of the 6-foot-7 McKie, Wake isn’t getting much from its frontcourt.  They are doing a woeful job on the offensive glass and an equally poor job on the defensive boards, while their opponents are routinely shooting a high percentage from the field.

Look for the Huskers to take advantage of Wake’s poor defense to pick up the victory.

  • Prediction: Nebraska

#7 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina – 9:30 (ESPN)

This will be an interesting contrast in styles to close things out. The Badgers play at one of the slower paces in all of college hoops, while North Carolina wants to get up and down the floor.

jordan-taylor-big-ten-acc-challenge-preview-matchups-predictions-tv-scheduleWisconsin is the top team in terms of limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding, while the Heels have struggled to defend the three-point shot over their last few games.  The Badgers have Jordan Taylor (11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.8 apg) and a bunch of guys no one has heard of, while UNC’s roster is full of McDonald’s All-Americans and lottery picks, led by Harrison Barnes (17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), John Henson (15.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg), and Tyler Zeller (13.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

After being outplayed by UNLV on Saturday night, I will be interested to see how North Carolina responds.  They forced shots and got dominated on the glass by the Rebels, and they were unable to prevent penetration on defense, which led to a number of kick-outs for three-pointers.  That could be bad news against a Wisconsin team hitting better than 47 percent from downtown.

The Badgers were tested by BYU on Saturday before going on a second half run to win by 17 points, but going into the Dean Dome and winning is a pretty tall order.  Their defense will keep it close, but they will need big shooting days from Ben Brust and Josh Gasser to spring the upset. Given UNC’s defense so far, that isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem.

  • Prediction: North Carolina

 **********

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.



About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Andy ranks among the top bracketologists according to the Bracket Matrix and has provided his projections to Fox Sports for the past three seasons. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate and co-hosts The Assembly Call postgame show following every IU game. Twitter: @AndyBottoms

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