According to most pundits, the Mountain West will be a two-team race this season between New Mexico and the next team on the Non-BCS Watch List.
UNLV Rebels
Looking Back
The Rebels finished 24-9 but took a back seat to BYU and San Diego State in the Mountain West. UNLV won their first nine games of the season and rallied to win their final five conference games. However, they lost to SDSU for the third time in the MWC Tournament before falling to Illinois in the first round of the Big Dance.
UNLV wound up 27th in the Pomeroy Ratings, thanks in large part to a defense that ranked 17th in efficiency. The Rebels posted Top 35 marks in opponents’ turnover percentage and effective field goal percentage, with their biggest challenge keeping other teams off the foul line. Offensively, they ranked 60th overall after finishing between 82nd and 126th in each of Pomeroy’s four factors.
After the season, Lon Kruger took the vacant Oklahomajob, which opened the door for UNLV to lure Dave Rice away from BYU. That should lead to a faster tempo for the Rebels this season based on Rice’s track record in recent seasons. In addition to losing their coach, UNLV must also replace top scorer Tre’Von Willis, who also finished second on the team in assists.
This Year’s Rebels
The team’s top returning player is senior Chace Stanback, who finished second on the team in scoring with 13.0 points and led the squad in rebounding with nearly six per game. He posted the top offensive rating on the team last season thanks to strong effective field goal and true shooting percentages and a low turnover rate. Stanback was particularly effective on the defensive glass, and he should challenge for MWC Player of the Year honors. His versatility makes him a matchup nightmare, and he should flourish in Rice’s system. Stanback was arrested for a DUI in the offseason but will only miss one regular season game.
Guard Oscar Bellfield is the other returning double-digit scorer after going for 11.2 points per game last year. He also led the team in assists with 3.7 per contest and hit 37.9 percent from deep. Perhaps most importantly, Bellfield brings a veteran presence to the backcourt and is poised for a strong senior season.
While Bellfield will be the primary ballhandler, Anthony Marshall also showed some terrific passing ability and will contribute in a number of ways with 9.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Like Bellfield, he posted a terrific assist rate, but he did a better job of getting to the free throw line with a 49.2 free throw rate.
Six-foot-eight forward Quintrell Thomas is the team’s top returning option inside. He averaged 6.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in just 15.4 minutes per game. Thomas also converted on over 52 percent of his field goals while posting gaudy rebounding percentages on both the offensive and defensive glass. He did a nice job of drawing fouls, but he needs to cut back on his 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes to maximize his productivity.
The other notable returnees inside are 6-foot-11 Carlos Lopez and 6-foot-10 Brice Massamba. Lopez contributed 4.8 points and 2.8 rebounds in 11.7 minutes, and he posted strong rebounding and block percentages. However, his 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes, high turnover rate, and poor free throw shooting prevented him from doing even more. Massamba shot nearly 60 percent from the field but was less effective on the glass than Lopez. He was also whistled for a staggering 8.1 fouls per 40 minutes.
In the backcourt, defensive specialist Justin Hawkins returns after averaging 5.0 points and 1.2 steals last year. Kendall Wallace missed last season with a knee injury but gives the team some much-needed long-range shooting after hitting 39.3 percent from three-point range as a junior.
A pair of newcomers, both of whom are transfers, are also expected to contribute. Mike Moser played one season at UCLA and should provide rebounding and toughness inside. Scouting reports have praised his athleticism and versatility, and he should earn a spot in the starting lineup at some point in the season. Guard Reggie Smith joins the team from Marquette and is expected to provide additional depth off the bench.
2011-12 Outlook
The cupboard certainly isn’t bare as Rice starts his tenure as the new head man. The nucleus of Stanback, Bellfield, and Marshall give the team stability in the backcourt and on the wing, while Thomas showed flashes of becoming a reliable option in the frontcourt last year.
The Rebels have a number of challenging games on the non-conference slate. They face Nevada and Cal at home and hit the road to take on Wichita State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. They are also playing in the IBN Sports Las Vegas Invitational, where a second round matchup with North Carolina looms.
There is a pretty clear divide between New Mexico, UNLV, and the rest of the Mountain West. The Rebels were recently picked to finish second by the media, but if they can get consistent play up front from some combination of Thomas, Lopez, Massamba, and Moser, a conference title is definitely not out of the question. Either way, I expect them to embrace Rice’s uptempo style and find themselves in the at-large discussion.
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* – Chace Stanback image source: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America via Zimbio
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