Big Ten Game of the Week: #11 Michigan Wolverines at #23 Michigan State Spartans – Preview, Point Spread, Prediction and Poll

Last week, Brady Hoke did something Rich Rodriguez never could during his 3-year tenure as Michigan’s head coach – start a season 6-0.  This week, Hoke will attempt to succeed again where Rodriguez couldn’t.

Michigan State won all 3 meetings against the Wolverines under Rodriguez, but there is no doubt that this 2011 Michigan team is much different than any the Spartans faced the last 3 years.  This rivalry, which many regard as the fiercest in the Big Ten, means a little more this time around for both teams.

East Lansing’s Spartan Stadium will host a battle for first place of the Big Ten’s Legends Division.  #11 Michigan (6-0, 2-0 conference) and #23 Michigan State (4-1, 1-0 conference) can each take the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game with a win this Saturday.

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Michigan-Michigan State: Things to consider for Saturday

This matchup, on paper, is a classic example of strengths versus weaknesses.  It will be interesting to see which coach is able to game plan best in order to equalize those gaps, and also to see which players execute those game plans and make big plays.

Michigan comes into this game 7th in the nation in rushing with 257 yards per game.  Obviously, having Denard Robinson, who averages 120 rushing yards per game himself, is a big reason for that.  But Michigan has also had the benefit of piling up healthy rushing totals while leading big in several games this season.

Robinson, the Heisman candidate, has developed the disturbing (for Michigan and their fans, that is) habit of throwing interceptions.  The biggest reason for this, in my opinion, is overconfidence on Robinson’s part.  He believes he can make every throw with his athleticism, and this leads to him forcing the ball when a play simply isn’t there.  Robinson has been able to make a ton of big plays, most notably against Notre Dame and last week against Northwestern, but part of the reason it took a big comeback in both of those games is that the Wolverines turned the ball over so much to begin with.

The big plays have also been a curse in disguise, because on nearly every one of those deep bombs that Denard has unleashed, whether for completions or picks, he has thrown while moving and off his back foot.  That creates a jump ball situation, and often the passes are underthrown, making the receiver come back to the ball, and also the defensive back.  Though wideout Junior Hemingway has shown an uncanny ability to go up and grab those, he won’t always be able to do so, especially against a tough defense like the Spartans.  Robinson, I think, has started to believe that he can heave it and let Hemingway, Roy Roundtree, or Jeremy Gallon go get it.

Michigan State, on the other hand, has excelled defensively.  They are the top ranked defense in the nation in yards allowed (173 per game) and are especially stout against the run, allowing only 64 yards per game.  They are also 3rd in the country in points allowed, giving up just over 10 per game.  In their last game they manhandled Ohio State in Columbus and came within 10 seconds of shutting the Buckeyes out.

Senior Wide Receiver B.J. Cunningham has been a monster this season, with 38 catches and an average of over 116 yards per game, tops in the Big Ten.  He became the school’s all-time leaders in receptions in week 2.  Cunningham has twice as many catches as the next Spartan this season, Keshawn Martin, who has 19.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 68 percent of his passes this year, and Cunningham is a big reason why.

Given the trouble Michigan has had keeping big play receivers in check, he might be in for another big game this weekend.  Michigan has allowed an opposing receiver double-digit catches 3 times in 6 games, including huge games by Western Michigan’s Jordan White (12-119 yards) and Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd (13-159 yards).  Cunningham will be the most talented receiver Michigan has seen Floyd, and Michigan State will surely try to exploit that mismatch against Michigan’s secondary.

What Michigan must do to win

For the Wolverines to win, the formula is simple: Denard Robinson must play like Denard Robinson, minus the interceptions.  Michigan can survive one or two turnovers at most, as the Spartans have also shown a propensity to turn the ball over (including 3 times at Ohio State).  But if Robinson plays like he did in the first half of the Northwestern game, Michigan will likely dig themselves a hole too deep to emerge from, especially considering Michigan State leads the Big Ten in time of possession at just over 34 minutes per game.

Michigan must also find a way to limit B.J. Cunningham.  That’s easier said than done, but it can be done by getting solid pressure with Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen and the rest of the defensive line.  If they force Cousins to act quickly, the chances for mistakes will increase.

Vincent Smith should also play a significant role.  Michigan’s offense is at its best when Smith is in the game, as he adds value in the running, receiving and pass blocking phases of the game.  He is so elusive in space that it often only takes a single block to spring him for a big gain.  If he makes a couple big plays look for Michigan to break their losing streak to the Spartans.

What Michigan State must do to win

It’s a no-brainer, but the Spartans must keep Denard Robinson in check.  Last year they forced Robinson into 3 interceptions and limited him to 86 yards on the ground, his lowest total in a game at that point last year.  They must do the same this year.

The defensive backs for Michigan State must look back to the ball in coverage.  Michigan’s receivers are speedy, but Robinson sometimes struggles with accuracy.  The Spartans will have their chances to go after the ball, and they must make a couple big plays when given those chances.

As mentioned, Cousins must get the ball to B.J. Cunningham.  His presence will also open up the middle of the field for tight ends and screens.  Cunningham has a chance to go off in this game, and if he does, the Spartans might just make it 4 in a row.

Lastly, they must control the clock.  If they can use Edwin Baker and LeVeon Bell with any success and keep Robinson off the field for large stretches, they will win.

Michigan-Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State will come out with a huge head of steam and Cousins will connect with Cunningham early and often.  The Spartans, like Northwestern last week, will jump out to a lead in the first half, and Michigan will have to adjust.

But also like last week, adjust the Wolverines will.  Denard will find his mojo, make smart decisions, and run better than he did last year against State.  The Wolverines will force Cousins into some mistakes and take advantage, pulling off a victory in a game I expect to be really exciting down the stretch, as is the norm with Michigan.

• Final Score: Michigan 34, Michigan State 31.

What do you think?

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Michigan-Michigan State Game Info:

• Michigan-Michigan State Date: Saturday, October 15
• Michigan-Michigan State Kickoff Time: 12:00 pm ET
• Michigan-Michigan State TV: ESPN
• Michigan-Michigan State Point Spread: Michigan State -2
• Michigan-Michigan State Over/Under: 49

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