Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 5 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders

Those first two weeks, when I went a combined 15-15-2, are now a distant memory. After a 12-4 Week 3, and a solid 9-7 Week 4, the overall record is now 10 games over .500 at 36-26-2, a win percentage of 57%. And some of the losses last week were by the narrowest of margins, so I’m feeling good.

What’s on tap for this week? A Monday night game in which Detroit is favored by six points over Chicago. That’s really all you need to know about the NFL in 2011.


nfl-picks-point-spreads-odds-free-picks-ats-over-undersThere are some other intriguing games too.

Philadelphia-Buffalo is a fascinating matchup between one team that has overachieved and another that has woefully underachieved. The Steelers are in danger of spiraling further outside the playoff picture against the surprising Titans. And the Patriots-Jets and Packers-Falcons give us compelling rematches of 2010 playoff games.

Should be some fun games to pick.

A couple of quick things to keep in mind:

  • The Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, and Redskins are all on their bye this week.
  • All times are ET.
  • All spread info as of Monday. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.

Now here are your Week 5 picks, along with the point spreads and over-under odds for each game.

NFL Week 5 Bettor’s Guide

Betting Lines & Odds – Point Spreads – Over-Unders

Free Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

  • Saints-Panthers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Saints-Panthers Point Spread: Saints -6
  • Saints-Panthers Over-Under Odds: 52.5
  • Saints-Panthers Spread Pick: The Panthers kept me from having a great week last week with their late cover against the Bears. I would not be surprised if we see something similar this week. While I do think the Saints’ D will be able to confuse Cam with an array of blitzes, he will also be able to make some big plays with his legs and firing the ball to Steve Smith. They won’t be able to do enough to match Drew Brees and Co, but they’ll keep this one close enough. Saints-Panthers free pick: Panthers +6

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Titans-Steelers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Titans-Steelers Point Spread: Steelers -5
  • Titans-Steelers Over-Under Odds: Not posted as of Tuesday afternoon
  • Titans-Steelers Spread Pick: It looks like the oddsmakers are waiting to hear definitive word on Ben Roethlisberger’s injury before posting an Over-Under, and several don’t even have a line up yet, but two places have it at -5 so I’ll pick based on that. And I’ll take the Titans. Gleefully. I know that Mike Tomlin trotted out his usual platitudes after another disappointing Steelers effort last weekend, but they just don’t have the same effect on me anymore. All the tough talk is great, but we’ve heard it all before from Tomlin. I wonder if his players feel the same way? I have no way of knowing, but I do know that Pittsburgh is looking like a textbook case of a team with Super Bowl Loser’s Hangover, and the advancing age of their stars on D isn’t helping matters. Arian Foster churned and burned them last week, and a rejuvenated Chris Johnson could do the same this week. Titans-Steelers free pick: Titans +5

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

  • Chiefs-Colts Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Chiefs-Colts Point Spread: Colts -2.5
  • Chiefs-Colts Over-Under Odds: 38.5
  • Chiefs-Colts Spread Pick: The Colts have impressed me the last two weeks. I thought they would get destroyed by Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, yet they covered big spreads and were in the games until the end. I’ve said a lot of negative things about Jim Caldwell, and I think he’s overmatched as a coach, but give him this: his team is playing hard for him. This is a prideful bunch that isn’t just handing games to the opposition because Peyton isn’t around. And I think the offense functions much better with Curtis Painter at the helm than it did with Kerry Collins. That said, 2.5 points is a lot to trust the Colts with, even against a rag-tag group like the Chiefs. Gun to head, I’d pick the Colts to win. But I’ll play it safe and take the points in this Suck for Luck elimination game. Chiefs-Colts free pick: Chiefs +2.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills

  • Eagles-Bills Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Eagles-Bills Point Spread: Eagles -3
  • Eagles-Bills Over-Under Odds: 49.5
  • Eagles-Bills Spread Pick: I was correct in thinking the 49ers would give the Eagles all they could handle last week and that the Bills were due for a letdown in Cincinnati. So can I peg these two teams correctly this week? If so, the Eagles are going to roll to an easy victory. I know that Philly has problems along the interior, but the Bills aren’t exactly The Hogs and the Fearsome Foursome along the lines. Philly is angry, desperate, and immensely talented at the skill positions. At some point that is going to manifest itself in a great, even if not physically dominating, performance. I think it comes Sunday as the Bills fall to a record (3-2) much more in line with their current talent level. Eagles-Bills free pick: Eagles -3

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

  • Seahawks-Giants Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Seahawks-Giants Point Spread: Giants -10
  • Seahawks-Giants Over-Under Odds: 41.5
  • Seahawks-Giants Spread Pick: Seattle is a smart cover at home and always a threat to get blown out on the road (especially when traveling to the East Coast for an early start). The Giants, at 3-1, have played surprisingly strong football the last couple of weeks, with Eli Manning protecting the ball and the offense having some nice balance. While Seattle gained some confidence by keeping it close with Atlanta last week, I don’t think Atlanta is all that good, especially on the road; so I’m not overly impressed. The Giants finally have three healthy, productive receivers to pair with Bradshaw and Jacobs. I think they roll. Seahawks-Giants free pick: Giants -10

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Bengals-Jaguars Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Bengals-Jaguars Point Spread: Jaguars -2.5
  • Bengals-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 37
  • Bengals-Jaguars Spread Pick: Ugly game that I want no part of as a viewer. I also want to part of it as a picker. It’s a battle of rookie QBs playing for pretty crappy teams overall. In cases like this, I play the odds that the game will be close and take the points. Give me Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Bengals-Jaguars free pick: Bengals +2.5

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

  • Cardinals-Vikings Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on FOX
  • Cardinals-Vikings Point Spread: Vikings -3
  • Cardinals-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 44.5
  • Cardinals-Vikings Spread Pick: I keep saying this will be the week that the Vikings finally get a victory, and every week they keep letting me down. Well, I am not turning my back on the Vikings yet. They still have AD, they still have Jared Allen, and they still have a capable offense with a QB who isn’t playing great but whose play as steadily become at least almost decent. I think McNabb puts together a decent outing Sunday and the overrated Kevin Kolb has just another pedestrian one in a tough road environment. The Vikings take out some frustration on the Cardinals, who are making the dreaded West Coast-to-East Coast trip for an early start. Vikings-Cardinals free pick: Vikings -3

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

  • Raiders-Texans Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 1:00 ET on CBS
  • Raiders-Texans Point Spread: Texans -6
  • Raiders-Texans Over-Under Odds: 49
  • Raiders-Texans Spread Pick: Maybe this really is a different Texans team. I’m not totally convinced yet – I also think that Pittsburgh just isn’t very good – but I definitely think the Texans are better than they’ve ever been. The thing is, I also think the Raiders are a solid team, and I think they make Houston sweat a little bit with Andre Johnson likely to be unable to play. Ultimately the Texans will win, but probably by a field goal. Raiders-Texans free pick: Raiders +6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

  • Buccaneers-49ers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 4:05 ET on FOX
  • Buccaneers-49ers Point Spread: 49ers -2.5
  • Buccaneers-49ers Over-Under Odds: 40.5
  • Buccaneers-49ers Spread Pick: Uh oh. Here come the expectations 49ers. Are you ready? Tampa Bay is a very good young team that many people were high on coming into the season. No one was high on San Francisco before the season began, yet here they are at 3-1 coming off a huge comeback over Philadelphia. Even though Tampa Bay is coming off the short week, I sense a letdown for San Francisco. They might win, but the this Tampa Bay team is great in close games late. I definitely foresee a close game, and I’d pick Tampa Bay to win straight up if I had too. Thus, I’ll obviously take the points. Buccaneers-49ers free pick: Bucs +2.5

New York Jets at New England Patriots

  • Jets-Patriots Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 4:15 ET on CBS
  • Jets-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -9
  • Jets-Patriots Over-Under Odds: 48.5
  • Jets-Patriots Spread Pick: We’ve seen this before. The Patriots are rolling on offense, the Jets are the angry underdog…and the Jets end up winning. I don’t know if they’ll win – it’s always hard for me to predict Mark Sanchez beating Tom Brady – but I do think Rex Ryan and the Jets will be geeked up for this one, and that often produces good results against the Pats offense. The question will be if the Jets offense can do anything at all. We’ll see. I think the game is a competitive one though. Jets-Patriots free pick: Jets +9

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

  • Chargers-Broncos Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 4:15 ET on CBS
  • Chargers-Broncos Point Spread: Chargers -4
  • Chargers-Broncos Over-Under Odds: 47
  • Chargers-Broncos Spread Pick: Not a big fan of this game. San Diego is always a threat to underperform what you think they will do, and the Broncos do have enough playmakers on offense to put a decent outing together. I wouldn’t want to touch this game with 10-foot pole if I actually put my own money on the line with these picks, but if I did, I’d do what I always do when I’m uncertain: take the points. Chargers-Broncos free pick: Broncos +4

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

  • Packers-Falcons Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 9th at 8:20 ET on NBC
  • Packers-Falcons Point Spread: Packers -5.5
  • Packers-Falcons Over-Under Odds: 54
  • Packers-Falcons Spread Pick: This should be a fun one. If you’ve been following this site, and especially my preseason predictions, you know that I am not high on the Falcons this year. I don’t think they’ll make it back to the playoffs, and I have little respect for their ability to play well away from home or outside of a dome. But guess what? This game is in a dome, it’s at home, and there is a revenge factor at play. The Packers knocked the Falcons off in the playoffs last year, and I’m sure Atlanta would love to get its season back on the right track by handing the Packers their first loss. I don’t know if they will, but they’ll keep it close. Packers-Falcons free pick: Falcons +5.5

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

  • Bears-Lions Date, Time, and TV: Monday, October 10th at 8:30 ET on ESPN
  • Bears-Lions Point Spread: Lions -6
  • Bears-Lions Over-Under Odds: 48
  • Bears-Lions Spread Pick: What a fun game this should be. Detroit is one of the most fun teams in the league to watch, and the Bears always find a way to make games compelling…whether it’s Devin Hester in the return game, good or bad Jay Cutler (both are fun to watch), or the defense making forcing incredible turnovers all over the field. And with the Bears desperately looking to hold onto a semblance of hope in the NFC North, and rediscovering their ground game last week, I think they can give the Lions a good fight. Is Detroit ready for primetime? We’ll find out Monday. I’m happy to take six points with the team that is used to primetime. Bears-Lions free pick: Bears +6


About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

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