NFL Week 4 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Under Odds - Free Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for Week Four

Update: The spread and pick for the Eagles-49ers game is now posted.

Now that’s what I’m talking about!

After going a putrid 15-15-2 against the spread through the first two weeks of the 2011 NFL season, I exploded in Week 3 with a 12-4 domination of the point spreads. I’m now 27-19-2 on the season, good for about a 56% winning clip through three weeks.

I’d happily take that for the season, so if I can just maintain this pace I’ll set myself up for yet another successful season picking games the way I always do: first gut impression based on Tuesday lines.

There are some particularly interesting games this week for which I can’t wait to see the lines: Steelers-Texans, Lions-Cowboys, Patriots-Raiders, Ravens-Jets among them. Let’s hop to it.

A couple of quick things to keep in mind:

All times are ET.
All spread info as of Monday. If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, visit DocSports’ Week 4 NFL odds and lines page.
Follow the link to see the Week 4 TV Schedule, Announcer Lineup, and Coverage Maps

Now here are your Week 4 picks, along with the point spreads and over-under odds for each game.

NFL Week 4 Bettor’s Guide

Free Picks (ATS) – Point Spreads – Over-Unders – Odds

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Bills-Bengals Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on CBS
Bills-Bengals Point Spread: Bills -3
Bills-Bengals Over-Under Odds: 44.5
Bills-Bengals Spread Pick: Well look at this. The Buffalo Bills are favored by three points on the road, and I’m seriously considering taking it. Notice I said considering, because I can’t do it. We’ve seen it time and again in the NFL: upstart team gets all jacked up to play a big rival at home, beats them, and then has a letdown the next week. Now, the Bills may squeak out a late win, because they’re tricky like that, but the Bengals – smarting after an ugly loss last weekend – are going to make this one tough. Bills-Bengals free pick: Bengals +3

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Titans-Browns Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on CBS
Titans-Browns Point Spread: Browns -1
Titans-Browns Over-Under Odds: 37.5
Titans-Browns Spread Pick: I am not yet a believer in the Browns. They beat the Colts…whoop-di-do…and then, I thought, were outplayed by the Dolphins despite winning last week. The Titans, on the other hand, have been playing pretty good football. Unfortunately, they lost Kenny Britt for the season, which hurts their offense, but you have to think that Chris Johnson will start to get it going. Daniel Thomas ran well against Cleveland last week, so perhaps CJ2K can get himself on pace to be CJ1K in 2011 with his first good game of the year. I think he will, and that Tennessee wins again led by Matt Hasselbeck. Titans-Browns free pick: Titans +1

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Steelers-Texans Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on CBS
Steelers-Texans Point Spread: Texans -4
Steelers-Texans Over-Under Odds: 45
Steelers-Texans Spread Pick: I am not impressed with the Steelers at all. They were trounced in Week 1 – and as their own coach said, good teams do NOT have losses like that – then fattened up on a terrible Seattle team in Week 2 before eeking out a win in unimpressive fashion against the woeful Colts in Week 3. Now they take their depleted offensive line to take on a Texans defense that is improved from a year ago and licking their wounds after a tough loss in New Orleans. I do think these Texans are a bit different than in past years, and that they’ll bring a solid effort Sunday, enough to win this one by more than the spread. Consider it another wakeup call for a Steelers team that really may be too old to repeat its success of a year ago. Steelers-Texans free pick: Texans -4

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Lions-Cowboys Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on FOX
Lions-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -2
Lions-Cowboys Over-Under Odds: 47
Lions-Cowboys Spread Pick: The Cowboys have played nine straight games decided by three points or less. That is mind-boggling. And they have won the majority of them, which is a good sign for the Jason Garrett Era. I just don’t think they’ll win this one, even at home. Dallas is not going to have an answer for Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh, and I think those two guys alone could prove to be the difference, so long as Matthew Stafford doesn’t make any stupid decisions, of which he’s made precious few this season. I still like Dallas to make the playoffs, but they won’t be able to beat The Juggernaut this weekend. Lions-Cowboys free pick: Lions +2

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

49ers-Eagles Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on FOX
49ers-Eagles Point Spread: Eagles -9.5
49ers-Eagles Over-Under Odds: 44
49ers-Eagles Spread Pick: Early in the week there was some question as to whether Michael Vick would play or not in this week’s game against San Francisco. He is going to play; the question is for how long? Vick has been unable to make it through the last two games, and with the 49ers’ physical defense coming into town it is reasonable to wonder if he’ll make it through this one. And with Philly’s run defense proving sieve-like, could a two-headed RB monster of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter be enough to keep the 49ers in the game despite their awful passing game? I say yes, especially since the one receiving threat the 49ers have is tight end Vernon Davis, the very position Philly has had trouble stopping this year. I think Philly wins because they are too fast and too talented, but the 49ers will give them everything they can handle. 49ers-Eagles free pick: 49ers +9.5

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Panthers-Bears Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on FOX
Panthers-Bears Point Spread: Bears -7
Panthers-Bears Over-Under Odds: 44
Panthers-Bears Spread Pick: Ugh, I don’t not like this line at all. It’s hard to know what to expect from the Panthers with such talent but such inexperience at the QB position. My gut tells me that the Bears, smarting from their loss to the Packers, will be ready to play and will attack Newton. And while Newton will be able to make some plays, do the Panthers have a strong enough pass rush to make the Bears pay for their protection issues? I’m not sure. I tentatively like the Bears, but if I were wagering real money on this one I would stay far, far away. Panthers-Bears free pick: Bears -7

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Redskins-Rams Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on FOX
Redskins-Rams Point Spread: Pick ‘em (as of Tuesday)
Redskins-Rams Over-Under Odds: 42.5
Redskins-Rams Spread Pick: The Redskins defense is much better this year, which will help them overcome the inevitable Rex Grossman Meltdown game. I don’t know if it will come this weekend against St. Louis, but I do know that St. Louis has its back against the wall, and I’ll always take points or an even bet when the home team is desperate and the opponent is not a great team. That’s what we have here. Give me Sam Bradford and the Rams to get their season going with a win. Redskins-Rams free pick: Rams

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars

Saints-Jaguars Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on FOX
Saints-Jaguars Point Spread: Saints -7
Saints-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 46.5
Saints-Jaguars Spread Pick: I liked the Saints a lot before the season began, and their season-opening loss to the Packers didn’t make me like them any less. Now with impressive home wins against Chicago and Houston under their belts, I think the Saints are ready to get on a roll. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to have a decent day in this one, but the Saints and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams are going to make life hell on Jags rookie Blaine Gabbert. Saints win going away. Saints-Jaguars free pick: Saints -7

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

Vikings-Chiefs Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 ET on FOX
Vikings-Chiefs Point Spread: Vikings -2
Vikings-Chiefs Over-Under Odds: 40
Vikings-Chiefs Spread Pick: As I said in the first edition of the “Suck 4 Luck” Power Rankings, the Chiefs’ season is over, but I don’t think the Vikings’ season is yet. There is just too much talent on the Vikings roster for them to continue blowing halftime leads, and I think the next time they get one they will stomp on the throats of their opponent with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson. In fact, I think it happens Sunday to the hapless Fighting Todd Haleys. Vikings-Chiefs free pick: Vikings -2

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

Giant-Cardinals Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 4:05 ET on FOX
Giant-Cardinals Point Spread: Giants -1.5
Giant-Cardinals Over-Under Odds: 44
Giant-Cardinals Spread Pick: It really is true that the Giants always seem to play their best football when their backs are most firmly against the wall. I was shocked by their dominance of the Eagles last weekend, especially since so much of it came through the air, despite the Eagles’ high priced secondary and the absence of Mario Manningham. As we have seen, the Cardinals’ secondary is not good. Hell, Sidney Rice had a huge day last week with TJack tossing him the pigskin. I think the Giants’ roll again on offense and simply outscore the Cardinals, who are still looking for Kevin Kolb to play the solid football they’re paying him to play. Giants-Cardinals free pick: Giants -1.5

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Falcons-Seahawks Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 4:05 ET on FOX
Falcons-Seahawks Point Spread: Falcons -4.5
Falcons-Seahawks Over-Under Odds: 41
Falcons-Seahawks Spread Pick: As you may know, while a lot of people were picking the Falcons to make the Super Bowl, I predicted them to the miss the playoffs. I just wasn’t buying what the majority of the media was selling, so they’re slow start is not a surprise to me. Nor will it be a surprise when they struggle mightily against the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense is better than people think, and they actually looked competent on offense last week. Since Atlanta’s defense isn’t very good, Seattle could play well enough on offense again to keep this one close. Atlanta will probably win by virtue of Matt Ryan being better than Tarvaris Jackson, but the homefield advantage Seattle enjoys will help them make it a knock-down, drag-out fight. Falcons-Seahawks free pick: Seahawks +4.5

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

Broncos-Packers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 4:15 ET on CBS
Broncos-Packers Point Spread: Packers -13
Broncos-Packers Over-Under Odds: 47
Broncos-Packers Spread Pick: The Packers are really rolling right now, and the Broncos are not. Yet, for some reason, I feel uncomfortable going with Green Bay at minus 13, even at home. This feels like one of those games where Green Bay jumps out early and then coasts, but the Packers’ secondary has been giving up some big plays and Kyle Orton is at least good enough to take advantage of that with Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker at his disposal. Call it a hunch. Packers coming off big rivalry game playing a nondescript opponent…they win, but not by two TDs. Broncos-Packers free pick: Broncos +13

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Patriots-Raiders Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 4:15 ET on CBS
Patriots-Raiders Point Spread: Patriots -4
Patriots-Raiders Over-Under Odds: 53.5
Patriots-Raiders Spread Pick: Upset alert! Upset alert! The Raiders have already knocked off one AFC East heavyweight…could they do it again? I think they just might. Sure, it’ll have to be in the 30s, but why can’t Oakland keep up with Tom Brady and the Patriots? Oakland might actually have a more multi-dimensional offense. New England can’t run, they only throw, and they’ll rack up video game numbers again this weekend. But Oakland has an underrated passing game with Jason Campbell and emerging star Denarius Moore, who should be able to hook up against the Patriots’ awful secondary. Mix in some McFadden and Bush to control the clock and a physical defensive front to harass Tom Brady, and the Raiders could very well send the Patriots to a second straight loss. Patriots-Raiders free pick: Raiders +4

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

Dolphins-Chargers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 4:15 ET on CBS
Dolphins-Chargers Point Spread: Chargers -8
Dolphins-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 46
Dolphins-Chargers Spread Pick: The Dolphins are a desperate 0-3, and they are playing teams tough. The Chargers are notorious slow starters who play down to their competition, and at 2-1 will not have their typical Week 4/5 sense of urgency where they are trying to fight back into the playoff picture. I’m sure San Diego will win this one, but the Dolphins will once again put up a good fight. They just can’t put it in the end zone enough to turn Ls into Ws. Dolphins-Chargers free pick: Dolphins +8

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Jets-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 2nd at 8:20 ET on NBC
Jets-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -3
Jets-Ravens Over-Under Odds: 40
Jets-Ravens Spread Pick: I am already excited to watch this game Sunday night. It will be physical, tough, and probably go back and forth. I could see it evolving into a shootout or a 10-7 slugfest. All possibilities are on the table. I also think Baltimore is the better team and will ultimately impose their will on a Jets’ defense that has regressed and an offense that can’t compete with the Ravens’ offense because Joe Flacco is better than Mark Sanchez. Jets-Ravens free pick: Ravens -3

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Colts-Buccaneers Date, Time, and TV: Monday, October 3rd at 8:30 ET on ESPN
Colts-Buccaneers Point Spread: Buccaneers -10
Colts-Buccaneers Over-Under Odds: 41
Colts-Buccaneers Spread Pick: The Colts laid it all on the line Sunday night – it really was an impressive effort, especially by the defense – but ultimately came up short at home against Pittsburgh. With uncertainty at QB, no home crowd to boost them, and the talented Bucs feeling good about themselves after a W over Atlanta, I think this game gets ugly early, and the Colts just don’t have the leadership or ability under center to get it back after that. Colts-Buccaneers free pick: Buccaneers -10

Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 4 Picks, Point Spreads, Over-Unders