The Bottoms Line Non-BCS Watch List: Central Florida Knights

September 9, 2011 By 1 Comment

One of last season’s biggest early-season surprises, Central Florida, is next up as I continue through my Non-BCS Watch List.

Central Florida Knights

Looking Back

It was a tale of two seasons for the Knights.  They reeled off 14 straight victories to start the season, including wins over Florida, Miami (FL), and what turned out to be a strong Princeton team.  From there, things went off the rails, as UCF dropped eight straight games early in the Conference USA season.  They never really recovered and wound up playing in the College Basketball Invitational, losing to Creighton in the third round.

From a statistical standpoint, the Knights ranked 110th in Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Defensive Efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings.  They posted a terrific free throw rate, which means their ratio of free throws to field goal attempts was among the best in the country.  However, they offset that by finishing with more turnovers than assists, which fueled an ugly assist rate.  On defense, they were particularly strong in terms of shot-blocking and limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage.

Last season was the first at UCF for former Marshall head coach Donnie Jones.  He brought a new energy to the program thanks to that hot start, but he’s brought some negative press as well.  The New York Times is accusing Jones of using someone with ties to an agent to funnel players into the program.  No formal findings have been issued yet, but it is a cloud hanging over the program as we near the 2011-12 season.

This Year’s Knights

In all, UCF returns three of their top four scorers and rebounders to go with their top assist men, most notably two of C-USA’s top players in Keith Clanton and Marcus Jordan.  Clanton, a 6-foot-9 junior, is one of the top players most people have never heard of.  He tallied 14.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 steal, and 1.8 blocks per game last season while shooting nearly 53 percent from the field.  Clanton is a fierce rebounder on both ends and has proven to be adept at drawing fouls.  He was a force on defense without committing many fouls (just 3.4 per 40 minutes) and even showed some ability to step out and knock down three-pointers.  Look for another huge season from Clanton, who averaged 20.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks on UCF’s recent trip toCanada.

In case you aren’t aware, Marcus Jordan is Michael’s son.  He finished first on the team in both points and assists last season while playing a ton of minutes.  He drew over six fouls per 40 minutes, which is great news for a guy who converts at a 77.5 percent clip from the stripe. Jordan’s assist rate was impressive for a guy who takes a lot of shots, and if he can improve on his 33.3 percent three-point shooting, his scoring could see a nice bump.  Jordan and Clanton are the clear 1-2 punch on this squad, as they showed on their exhibition trip to Canada.

Despite the loss of three members of the team’s rotation last season, there are a number of other talented returnees.  Isaiah Sykes finished the season strong with three solid games in the CBI, and he looks to have used that as a springboard into the summer.  He reached double figures in each of the three games in Canada, posted one double-double, and even saw some time as the backup point guard.  As a freshman, Sykes was solid on the offensive glass and posted a nice free throw rate while hitting better than 56 percent from the field.  There are no signs of a sophomore slump here.

At the point, A.J. Rompza returns for his senior season.  His 3.2 assists placed him second on the team, and he led the Knights in steals.  The knock on him is relatively poor shooting, but his defense will be key as UCF looks to press more this season.

Down low, P.J. Gaynor and Dwight McCombs bring additional size as the team looks to replace big men Tom Herzog and A.J. Tyler.  Gaynor posted 4.8 points and 3.2 rebounds in under 17 minutes of action last season.  He shot better than 62 percent from two-point range but turned the ball over too often.  McCombs also showed flashes and posted the second-best efficiency rating on the team, thanks in large part to his 64.3 percent shooting.  He provides an additional presence on the glass as well as an ability to block shots.  Both guys had positive performances in Canada, with Gaynor scoring 39 points over the final two games and McCombs going off for 16 points in the finale.

Three transfers and three true freshmen comprise the new faces for UCF.  The top transfer is forward Tristan Spurlock who started his career at Virginia.  He’s a former Top 100 recruit and Virginia Mr. Basketball, and he should be in the mix to start at small forward.  He scored six points and grabbed eight boards in the opener in Canada before suffering an ankle injury that caused him to miss the final two contests.

The other transfers are big man Josh Crittle from Oregon, and Jeffrey Jordan, Marcus’ older brother, who played his first three years at Illinois.  Both players will see action off the bench.

The team actually expected to have four freshmen, but the highest rated of the bunch, Michael Chandler, will be attending prep school instead. Chandler, a Top 10 center, is also involved in the NCAA allegations.  The freshmen who will be joining the team are Rod Days, Wayne Martin, and Kasey Wilson.  Days and Wilson gained valuable experience on the Canada trip, while a heel injury sidelined Martin.  None are expected to factor prominently in the rotation barring injury.

2011-12 Outlook

Jones has expressed a desire to press more this season, a strategy that may have contributed to the team wearing down a year ago.  Still, the press was effective and disruptive inCanada, and the depth appears to be there.  The difference is the Knights won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.

The non-conference slate isn’t particularly rough, with the only notable games a road trip to Florida State and a potential date with UConn in the second round of the new Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament.  Ultimately it gives the Knights a decent shot to get off to a good start again; the question then becomes whether they can sustain it this time around.

With Clanton and Jordan, the team boasts two established scorers that can match up with any duo in Conference USA.  There are a number of big guys capable of stepping in up front, giving Jones the ability to mix and match along the front line.  UCF also has some talented wing players, which fit well into Jones’ style of play, and a solid starting backcourt.  I don’t foresee UCF winning the C-USA Title, but they should be in the mix near the top of the conference and in the bubble conversation.

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the first edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

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Filed Under: CBB, Mid-Majors, The Bottoms Line Tagged With: central florida, non-bcs watch list
About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Since 2003, he has provided fantasy football and baseball content for a number of sites, some of which has been syndicated on SI.com and Yahoo. However, his true passion has always been college hoops. In addition to his work at MSF, Andy hosts the Bottoms Line podcast and is an editor at Run The Floor. Previously he provided college hoops content for RotoExperts and hosted a weekly podcast with John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate who is glad to see the basketball program on the rise, still watches old game tapes of Calbert Cheaney, and would pay good money to punch Kelvin Sampson in the face. Twitter: @AndyBottoms