The Bottoms Line Non-BCS Watch List: BYU Cougars

As a fan of college hoops, a Jimmer-less season is tough to imagine, and it’s ultimately why BYU made my Non-BCS Watch List.

BYU Cougars

Looking Back

I could sum up last season in two words: The Jimmer.  Guard Jimmer Fredette took the country by storm and averaged over 28 points, leading the Cougars to a 32-5 record and climbing as high as Number Two in the polls.  He was a highlight reel waiting to happen and one of the most entertaining players ever to lace them up at the college level.

As a team, BYU ranked in the Top 30 of the Pomeroy Ratings for both offensive and defensive efficiency.  The defensive numbers are likely shocking, but this goes to show the importance of tempo-free stats.  With the team averaging in the Top 20 for possessions per game, it stands to reason that their defensive points per game were higher than many other teams in terms of raw numbers.  The Cougars also posted an outstanding turnover percentage, thanks in large part to now-graduated point guard Jackson Emery.

The other part of BYU’s 2010-11 season that earned headlines was the suspension of big man Brandon Davies for his infamous Honor Code violation.  Who knows how deep into the tournament BYU could have gone had he remained with the team?  The good news is that he was recently reinstated, which gives some hope to BYU as they begin their first season as part of the West Coast Conference.

This Year’s Cougars

The return of Davies should help to offset the losses of Fredette, Emery, and forward Kyle Collinsworth, who embarked on his Mormon mission following last season.  The 6-foot-9 junior shot better than 52 percent from the field while contributing on both the offensive and defensive glass.  Davies was also adept at getting opponents into foul trouble and should be the focal point of the offense this season.  He did not accompany the team on their recent trip toGreece, but he will be in uniform when the season tips off.

Davies is expected to join Noah Hartsock up front.  Hartsock was the team’s fourth leading scorer at 8.6 points per game and its second leading rebounder with nearly six boards per contest.  Davies’ return allows Hartsock to slide back over to his more natural power forward position.  He shot well from beyond the arc in somewhat limited attempts and ended the season ranked 61st in terms of overall offensive efficiency – higher than even The Jimmer.

Charles Abouo is the team’s other top returnee after putting up 7.2 points and 4.8 boards in just over 20 minutes per game.  His scoring was somewhat inconsistent, but since he was never a top option, that was to be expected.  Abouo did use his length to grab defensive rebounds and responded to his expanded role by averaging 14.8 points and 8.3 rebounds on the tour of Greece.  It is believed the Cougars may opt for a bigger lineup this season and play Abouo at shooting guard.

A pair of other returning players acquitted themselves very well in Greece.  Former walk-on Brock Zylstra led the team with 17.3 points per game after playing sparingly behind Emery last season.  At 6-foot-6, he gives the team good size in the backcourt, and it sounds as if there is at least the potential for him to play some point guard.

Stephen Rogers also averaged double-digit scoring in Greece.  The 6-foot-8 swingman took about 60 percent of his shots from beyond the arc last season.  His conversion rate from deep left a bit to be desired, but he did knock down better than 40 percent during his stint at junior college.  He gives the team more size and the ability to contribute on the defensive glass.

After a medical redshirt, Chris Collinsworth is back in the mix up front.  He logged just nine games last season but posted 5.9 points and 5.6 rebounds in just 16 minutes per game.  At 6-foot-9, he gives the team yet another big body.

A few new players are also expected to make an impact this year.  Point guard Matt Carlino originally committed to Indiana before heading to UCLA.  From there, he transferred to BYU and will sit out the first half of the season due to NCAA transfer rules.  Most expect him to slide into the role as the starting point guard once he returns, and he gives the team another solid shooter from the perimeter.  If either Zylstra or Carlino can’t handle the point, that job likely falls to Nick Martineau, who averaged fewer than five minutes last season.

True freshman Damarcus Harrison committed to the Cougars over the likes of Wisconsin, Marquette, and Florida State.  He’s a terrific athlete with a nice shooting stroke, and after posting nearly 10 points per game inGreece, he should be a key member of the rotation.

The other freshman to watch is Josh Sharp, who originally committed to Utah before his mission trip, but upon his return, he enrolled at BYU.  At 6-foot-7, the upside is there, and he is expected to provide versatility and toughness off the bench.

2011-12 Outlook

Without The Jimmer, expectations are certainly lowered for the youthful Cougars, but the return of Davies is absolutely huge for this team.  With him in the mix along with Hartsock and Collinsworth, the team has a strong front line.  Abouo will provide athleticism from the wing and will be a more consistent producer as his role expands.  The main question is at point guard, where Coach Dave Rose has to hope either Zylstra or Carlino takes hold of that role.  While Jimmer will be missed, you can’t underestimate what Emery brought to the team as a floor leader.

The non-conference schedule boasts a few challenging games, with a potential matchup with Wisconsin in the Chicago Invitational, a date with Baylor in Provo, and a January trip to Virginia Tech.  The Cougars also head to UtahState, which is always a tough environment, and play Oregon on a neutral floor.

So as the Cougars enter their first season in the WCC, they are by no means the favorite to win the conference title.  However, it is not unrealistic to expect them to finish in the top three among the likes of Gonzaga, Santa Clara, and Saint Mary’s.  Whether that earns them a tournament berth depends largely on how quickly the team gels and if they can pick up at least one marquee win out of conference.

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the first edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

* – Brandon Davis photo credit: By Douglas C. Pizac, US Presswire via USAToday.com

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