During my long ride back from KC last night, ESPN radio had Tim Kurkjian on discussing the upcoming playoffs.
In my view, Tim’s one of the few bright minds left at ESPN, so I was disappointed in his response when they asked him the cliché “Can anyone beat the Phillies” question, and he basically gave the cliché answer of “I don’t think so.”
When pressed to find a weakness in the team, he reached for “back end of the bullpen,” which is correct,
as though they’re the best team in the NL, they arguably have the worst bullpen of any potential playoff team, and the most suspect closer in Ryan Madson. They’ve imploded a few times lately, most recently in Miami Saturday night.
But Tim, there was an easy weakness you could’ve noted, but didn’t because I bet it didn’t fit
ESPN’s modus operandi: the Rollins-Utley-Howard nucleus is aging and declining, and this season it’s hugely evident.
All Kurkjian needed to say was that, while Chase Utley’s been hurt, he’s not the same player at age 33 that he was at 28 or even 31. The 32 year-old’s average is down 30 points, and he’s hit just 25 homers in his last 200 games, after averaging around 30 per 162 the five prior years.
As for Jimmy Rollins, the oft-injured 32 year-old is having another mediocre season. Take away his
excellent 2007 (and questionable MVP — Matt Holliday deserved it), and he’s a .268 lifetime hitter with 15 HR power. Not terrible for a leadoff man, but his On Base Percentage is awful for a table setter.
Ryan Howard is off limits for criticism, of course. I need not chronicle my laundry list of those examples, other than to link this, this and especially this (re postseason).
Kurkjian could’ve easily noted that every category for Ryan decreases by season as he ages and makes more money.
Since last August, Howard’s a .250 hitter with 30-35 HR power (not 45-50), who continues to strike out more than any player not named Drew Stubbs, Mark Reynolds, or Adam Dunn. His OPS is brutal–barely top 25 in the NL—well behind teammates Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino (the two most consistent hitters in Philly’s lineup for 2011)
And Tim knows that Ryan was a liability in last season’s playoffs by not knocking in a single run, and
standing with his bat on his shoulder in the most important at bat of the Phillies season — versus Brian Wilson with the winning runs on base in Game 6 of the NLCS. Howard whiffed, as he’s done at playoff-record place the past two postseasons: 30 in last 52 at bats!
If Tim didn’t know all this, he’s not as well-versed as I thought he was. Why do bloggers like me and others – with full-time jobs — know this, but he does not? And if he did know this, and decided not to relay it (His answer was “their offense is awesome”) then he just joins another in the long list of sports and news media types who puts agenda before honest journalism.
Even the Philly blogs are now questioning Ryan Howard. This one talks briefly about why he wasn’t an All Star in 2011, then gets into his declining stats, and notes, as of 6 weeks ago, “Philly Faithful are hoping for an enormous finish to the season out of their Silver Slugger, but if 2010’s injury plagued second half proves to be the trend expect nothing better than his non-all-star caliber first half.”
And he’s hit .240 in the 2nd half with a pitiful .320 OBP, 56 Ks in 43 games. No surprise.
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