Maybe it is time to go with the Chris Berman theory and keep picking the same two teams to reach the Super Bowl.
Back in the day Berman started a preseason tradition of predicting of a San Francisco 49ers v. Buffalo Bills Super Bowl. For seven consecutive years the Berman theory would have proved half right. The Niners won Super Bowl’s 23 and 24, then the Bills appeared in SB’s 25 through 28 before the Niners won Super Bowl XXIX. Sadly, the stars never quite aligned for Jim Kelly and Steve Young (or Joe Montana) to meet for all the marbles.
Obviously I wouldn’t touch either franchise to get anywhere close to the big game these days. But I’ve got my own two horses…
The Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers.
Actually I did not pick GB v. Diego last year. Instead I went with Packers v. the Indy Colts; and actually both picks were looking like a disaster until Green Bay went on a roll starting in Week 16 and completed what I referred to as their ‘NCAA Tournament run’ of winning six straight ‘elimination games’ to win the World Championship.
So why would I go with the Chargers in the AFC??? Simple, if there is any answer to Aaron Rodgers in the NFL, it is Philip Rivers, who is Dan Fouts for a new generation but unfortunately still carries Fouts’ legacy of never getting his team to the Super Bowl.
A closer look at Rivers’ stat-lines from the 2010 season and prior years — 4,700 passing yards, 30 TD’s v. 13 INT’s, 100+ QB rating in each of the past three seasons — shows that they virtually identical to Rodgers in both ’09 and ’10. And unlike the talent Rodgers has in Green Bay, Philip was working with a far more depleted receiving corps last year.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady remain in the conversation as difference makers, but Rodgers and Rivers are the best in the game right now, and history often says it is the best QB’s whose teams make it to that final game. I will go by that premise.
And hopefully be at least half-right…
AFC EAST PREDICTIONS
- New England (13-3) – If you have followed the pre-season, the Patriots were routing opponents in Bret Bielema-like fashion. It’s the post-season where this dynasty has hit the wall lately.
- NY Jets (10-6/Wild Card) – Sunday Night Football Week 1 is an Ari Kaufman special, Cowboys v. Jets, maybe the two most overrated teams in recent civilization.
- Buffalo (7-9) – Finished 2010 season going 4-4 and can’t go wrong getting my men Nick Barnett and Kirk Morrison on board. Don’t sleep too much on the Bills.
- Miami (4-12) – Remember the days when the Dolphins were one of the NFL’s flagship franchises? One thing going for them is that Jerod did put up a $32 bid (or something like that) to acquire Chad Henne during our draft auction.
[Editor's note: It was actually $1. And with the Dolphins sure to be down a lot and needing to pass, and with Henne and Brandon Marshall having a full year to get acclimated with one another, it could end up being the steal of the draft. BRING IT ON KURT!]
AFC NORTH PREDICTIONS
- Pittsburgh (11-5) – As much as the baseball team is consistently bad, the Steelers remain consistently solid. All the turmoil in the off-season before 2010, yet they still end up as conference champs – that was no surprise.
- Baltimore (11-5/Wild Card) – Same question as every year: this franchise remains solid, but can they get over the hump??
- Cleveland (7-9) – Kind of like the Bills, I think the Browns will sneak up on some people. One place they are set is at left tackle with Joe Thomas. The front office did well recently to lock up the franchise tackle to the tune of $84 million.
- Cincinnati (2-14) – Could I please get the name of Cedric Benson’s bail bonds guy? I hear he does pretty good work. Best news is that end of year Marvin Lewis will be long gone and the team will have #1 overall pick.
AFC SOUTH PREDICTIONS
- Houston (10-6) – Houston has had a problem the last nine years: basically that Peyton Manning and the Colts are in their division. With Manning ailing, if they don’t kill that witch and win the division this year, then when? Defense is the obvious key.
- Tennessee (9-7) – How much of an upgrade will lukewarm Matt Hasselbeck actually be? The best news is facing Kerry Collins two times rather than using him.
- Jacksonville (6-10) – After Bill Belichick and Andy Reid, Jack Del Rio (ninth year) is the third-longest tenured coach with his current club. Can his team keep chopping wood long enough to keep him employed?
- Indianapolis (4-12) – What has finally bitten Blue Horseshoe is their failure to develop another quarterback, unlike Green Bay or New England have, even though they already were set with a superstar at the position. Matt Cassel proved very useful for the Pats for one year while the Packers were able to flip several of Brett Favre’s understudies into eventual draft picks. My bold prediction of the year: Peyton Manning does NOT TAKE A SINGLE SNAP ALL SEASON. Blue Horseshoe, dead.
AFC WEST PREDICTIONS
- San Diego (11-5) – Will Ryan Matthews take a leap after his Year One false start? Mike Tolbert is still very much in the picture to do some of the heavy lifting the run game.
- Denver (8-8) – Unlike the third-stringer, Kyle Orton does not have a best-selling book out. He is a pretty damn good QB though.
- Kansas City (7-9) – Look for the team I refer to as the ‘SEC Alums’ to regress after sneaking up last year, and do not look for Todd Haley to be a candidate for Coach of the Year this time around. The Chiefs lost TE Tony Moeaki for the year in final pre-season game when Haley he needlessly played many of his regulars most of the game.
- Oakland (5-11) – Terrelle Pryor’s Wonderlic score was reportedly a 7. That’s disputed by the Pryor camp, but seven probably still beats the score of the Raiders braintrust who continue to waste draft picks throwing darts on players with character issues.
NFC EAST PREDICTIONS
- Philadelphia (11-5) – The self-anointed “Dream Team” after landing Nnamdi Asomugha along with some other bold post lockout moves. Probably good enough to win division but I am not banking on another career year out of Michael Vick.
- Dallas (10-6/Wild Card) – Jason Garrett finally as coach, Romo back at quarterback, a talented receiving tandem in Miles Austin/Dez Bryant, and maybe the long awaited breakout year by Felix Jones should be enough to at least get Dallas back in the playoffs.
- NY Giants (8-8) – The headline “Prince Out For Season” caused a few Milwaukee Brewers fans to have heart palpitations – but it was actually Giants football fans who needed the antacids after #1 draft pick Prince Amukamara went down in camp.
- Washington (5-11) – Dan Snyder keeps throwing bad money after more bad money. The current US economy is convinced Snyder is out of order.
NFC NORTH PREDICTIONS
- Detroit (11-5) – Yes, I’ve bought a family size of the Lions Kool-Aid, and they will become third NFC North team not named the Packers to win division crown in last three years. All presuming Mega-Tron, Stafford, and Javhid Best can stay healthy for once. Even if they don’t Mr. Suh might be enough to carry this ship. Winning in the playoffs is where the brick wall may be this year though.
- Green Bay (11-5/Wild Card) – The Anti-Redskins. 13 members of the 2010 team are now gone, with no free agents signed from other teams. But I have long quit questioning Ted Thompson’s genius. Look for LB’s Jamari Lattimore and Vic So’oto to become the latest undrafted wonders.
- Chicago (7-9) – The Bears under Lovie Smith are kind of like Brett Saberhagen’s up-and-down baseball career. This will be the Bears down year, check back in 2012.
- Minnesota (6-10) – When the Donovan McNabb experiment fails and Christian Ponder takes over, we will get a better idea where Leslie Frazier’s program is truly headed. (Wait, it just hit me – an NFL season is about to begin WITHOUT Brett Favre! That’s as stunning as the Labor Day telethon without Jerry Lewis).
NFC SOUTH PREDICTIONS
- New Orleans (12-4) – The fashionable pick, the team that stuck together during the lockout. The Saints appear to remain as loaded as anyone, and coach Sean Peyton wisely is locked up through 2015.
- Atlanta (10-6) – The Falcons are good, but 13-3 good like last year?? I have the A-T-L falling just short in a crowded NFC playoff picture.
- Tampa Bay (7-9) – The NFC version of Kansas City. I’m not quite sold yet on Josh Freeman as a franchise QB, and not nearly as sold as plodding LeGarrette Blount in the running game.
- Carolina (4-12) – The kitties at least have the first puzzle piece secured with rookie QB Cam Newton, even if he is thrown to the wolves this year.
NFC WEST PREDICTIONS
- St. Louis (10-6) – Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith, or Sam Bradford. By process of elimination the Rams have by far the most upward momentum of any of the NFC West squads.
- San Francisco (7-9) – Bad news is Niners are in the wrong division to be truly bad enough to set up a Jim Harbaugh/Andrew Luck reunion.
- Arizona (7-9) – One half of Kevin Kolb against the Packers last year and another half against GB this season is enough to convince me that he is not a difference maker.
- Seattle (5-11) – Pete Carroll can’t do any better than what he has at quarterback right now? Doesn’t he have Matt Leinart or even Mitch Mustain’s phone number on his cell??
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS FOR 2011
- AFC Championship – San Diego over New England
- NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans
- Super Bowl 46 – Green Bay over San Diego
What do you think? Surely you agree with some of Kurt’s picks and disagree with others. The comment section awaits your plaudits and disagreements.
