Fantasy Football Strategy Advice: Three Rules to Abide By

Later in the week, “Fantasy Football Week” here at Midwest Sports Fans, I will help you analyze every position individually; but first, let’s take a look at fantasy football strategy from a macro view.

Whether you are doing a head-to-head league with a snake-style draft, an auction-based keeper league, or one of the free weekly FanDuel challenges that Drew and I will doing this season, here is some strategy advice that will serve you well this season in the form of three rules to make sure you abide by during the 2011 season.

1. Follow expert advice – but only on players of whom you have no opinion.

People like fantasy sports for a variety of different reasons, but I honestly think the biggest one is the control factor.  As fans, we spend an almost appalling amount of time following something – sports – of which we have almost no control over.

Fantasy sports are different.

Maybe you are a Bengals fan, and you know your team is going to be dreadful this year.  That’s ok.  You can still draft your boy AJ Green, but on YOUR team, you have Peyton Manning throwing the passes.

We love to have control over a team, and every time one of our players does well, it gives us a little dose of pride to share with our friends.

Sometimes, however, our desire to win causes us to give up some of our control, and we start listening to the experts a little too much.  I’m sure all of us, at one time or another, has sat a guy we felt good about in order to follow the “expert’s advice”…and it ended up costing us.  (I won’t bother boring you with one of my fantasy heartbreak stories – which we all have and like to share even though nobody REALLY cares about them – but let’s just say I once needed Todd Heap to score ONE MEASLY point on a Monday Night game…and the experts said he was a lock for double digits…and he didn’t come through.)

Expert advice can be very valuable and helpful.  I mean, wouldn’t it be nice to not have a real job and get to follow fantasy sports for a living like these guys?  Of course it would.  But don’t let them talk you out of something that you think is true.

adrian-peterson-fantasyThis year, the experts are saying that Arian Foster will score more points than Adrian Peterson.  I personally think that’s ridiculous.  Peterson will carry a large workload, and I actually think that Donovan McNabb will HELP him this year, considering Brett Favre’s corpse was manning the QB position last year.

If I have the first pick in the draft, I don’t care what the experts say; I’m taking Peterson (or even Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles for that matter) and laughing my way through the rest of the draft.  Why?  Because I have a strong opinion about it already.  If Foster really is the best player this year, the I can blame myself and admit to everyone I was wrong.  But I don’t think I’m wrong.

However, let’s say it’s late in the draft and I need a TE.  Gates, Clark, Davis, Witten, and Miller are off the board.  How much do I REALLY know about the current Tight End crop?  Should I try to get one of the Patriots’ young guys, even though they will cannibalize eachother all year?  Is Tony Gonzalez still a viable option?  Is Chris Cooley healthy?  Is Todd Heap alive?  Again, we don’t have the luxury of following this full time, so this situation is where the “experts” can really help us.

fantasy football strategy advice

2. This year, the guy with the most boring team may very well win it all.

Let’s just call this the “Ichiro Syndrome.”

Every single year, fantasy baseball owners try to find the “next great outfielder.”  Ichiro, invariably, ends up falling through the cracks.  In one of my drafts this year, Jason Heyward went in front of him.  Why?  Because it’s exciting to draft Jason Heyward.  When you draft him, your buddies will give you a slap on the back, and tell you, “Nice pick.  Dude is gonna be a baller.” And they are right.  He WILL be a great player some day.

On the flip side, for the past five years you have known what you are getting when you draft Ichiro.  You can basically pencil him in to lead the league batting average and hits while contributing nicely in steals and a few other categories.  He won’t strikeout, and he won’t make errors.  But, quite frankly, it’s not that fun to draft him on draft day.

(Granted, Ichiro has finally started to show signs of age and wear & tear this year, but the “Ichiro Syndrome” has worked out for over half a decade, so bear with me; you know what I’m getting at.)

Be warned.  The lockout is going to affect things dramatically this year.

First of all, we can probably expect the rookies to have a below average year (for normal standards).  It’s already tough enough for most rookies to learn the playbook, win playing time, AND stay healthy.  This year, they lost four valuable months of knowledge, practice, and team exercise.

Unless you really think that Julio Jones is going to thrive as the 3rd or 4th option on the Falcons (not ruling this out…remember, only follow the experts in areas you have no clue about), it is probably safer to draft Wes Welker.  Will people rave about Welker when you draft him?  Of course not.  But he’s still Tom Brady’s favorite target, and if he’s healthy you know he’s a lock to catch 100 balls and get you good numbers in yards and TDs.

kevin-kolb-arizonaAnother group of players that the lockout will definitely affect is the newcomers.  Will Sidney Rice, Kevin Kolb, and Braylon Edwards be good fantasy options in the future?  It’s definitely possible.  But they, like the rookies, have been handicapped severely by the lockout.

Even though Kolb will be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, how long will it take him to learn the offense?  And is he even good?  Again, it might be fun on draft day to take Kolb and tell your friends, “I got a steal!  This guy is going to bust out this year!”  But the guy that drafted Eli Manning behind you will be quite happy.  And he will probably end up beating you as well.

3. Nobody will remember if you finish second.

Let’s just be honest: when it comes to fantasy, there is the guy that finished in first place…and everybody else. I have played in I don’t know how many fantasy leagues over the years, but I can only distinctly remember three fantasy football teams I had. Obviously, they were my three teams that won it all. I know I have finished second before, and I know I have finished near the bottom before as well, but I couldn’t differentiate any of those seasons if you were holding a gun to my head.

While it’s true that the guy with the most boring team could win it all this year, don’t be afraid to take a couple of risks. It’s possible that Michael Vick could destroy your team this season. But he could also singlehandedly win it all as well.

In the end, our teams’ respective plights really comes down to one or two picks. If we hit a home run with them, we could very well be hoisting up the trophy at the end of the season.

At the end of the season, only one guy can win.  Trust me, it’s not fun AT ALL to finish second because you didn’t take enough risks.  When it comes to Fantasy Sports, it really is time to do what they say: “Go big, or go home.”



About Jon Washburn

Jon Washburn grew up in Indianapolis, IN and as such, is a diehard Pacers, Colts, and Cubs fans. When it comes to college, he cheers for Notre Dame football fan and Purdue basketball. Yes, this sounds shady, but since he grew up without cable, he learned to love Notre Dame - the only team on TV. Glenn "The Big Dog" Robinson was at Purdue when Jon was in his formative years, so he latched onto them as well. Did that make him a fair-weather fan at the time? Sure. Give him a break...he was 8...and he has stayed with those teams ever since. Currently, he lives in Charleston, SC with his wife who grew up in Cleveland. Although he is no longer physically in the Midwest, his heart will always be there. Jon goes by the name "Twitch" because he has Tourette's Syndrome. Hit him up on his twitter @jwtwitch.

Comments

  1. I discovered your blog web site on google and test a couple of of your early posts. Continue to keep up the excellent operate. I just further up your RSS feed to my MSN Information Reader. Looking for ahead to reading more from you afterward!…

  2. Thanks for a marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading it, you may be a great author.
    I will be sure to bookmark your blog and will often come back sometime
    soon. I want to encourage you to ultimately continue your great posts, have a nice holiday weekend!

  3. There’s certainly a great deal to find out about this subject.
    I like all the points you’ve made.

  4. Link exchange is nothing else but it is simply placing the other person’s
    webpage link on your page at appropriate place and other person will also do similar for you.

  5. It’s perfect time to make a few plans for the long run and it is time to be happy.
    I’ve read this submit and if I may just I desire to recommend you some
    attention-grabbing issues or advice. Maybe you can write
    next articles referring to this article. I desire to read
    even more issues approximately it!

  6. I like what you guys are usually up too. This type of clever work
    and exposure! Keep up the fantastic works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to my personal blogroll.

  7. Greate article. Keep writing such kind of info on your site.
    Im really impressed by it.
    Hey there, You have done a fantastic job. I’ll certainly digg
    it and in my opinion suggest to my friends. I’m sure they will be benefited from this web site.

  8. May I just say what a relief to find a person that genuinely understands what they’re talking about on the internet. You definitely know how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people need to check this out and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular because you certainly have the gift. you could try here: http://bit.ly/2b3E2rq

  9. Nice blog right here! Also your web site rather a lot up very fast!
    What host are you the use of? Can I get your associate hyperlink in your host?
    I wish my web site loaded up as quickly as yours lol

  10. I am sure this article has touched all the internet people, its really really fastidious article on building up new weblog.

  11. bookmarked!!, I really like your blog!

  12. Can I just say what a relief to discover someone that actually understands what
    they’re talking about on the internet. You definitely realize how to bring
    an issue to light and make it important. More and more people must look
    at this and understand this side of your story. It’s surprising you are not more popular given that you most certainly possess the gift.

  13. Useful info. Fortunate me I discovered your web site accidentally, and I am shocked why this coincidence didn’t happened earlier!
    I bookmarked it.

  14. It’s really a nice and helpful piece of info. I’m happy that you shared this helpful info with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

  15. Hi, Neat post. There’s a problem with your site in internet explorer, would test this… IE still is the market leader and a good portion of people will miss your excellent writing because of this problem.

  16. 1. Thanks for the great post keep up the amazing work.

  17. This blog was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something which helped me.
    Many thanks!

  18. En una Asamblea celebrada en la céntrica Puerta del Sol de Madrid, donde cumplen su quinta jornada los acampados han reclamado listas abiertas, circunscripción única y escaños proporcionales al número de votos. Vean ustedes a la señorita de la fotografía: se llama Maru Menéndez y actualmente es la portavoz del PSOE en la Asamblea de Madrid. Los manifestantes (pienso ir) seremos insultados en todos los medios frikis (los más vistos en tv) y no frikis. Tras una vida dedicada al servicio público, Manolo Chaves se retirará a vivir a una plaza de garaje.

  19. hope to learn more from your blog soon

  20. This blog was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped me.

    Many thanks!

  21. You should participate in a contest for among the finest blogs on the web. I will recommend this web site!

  22. whoah this blog is magnificent i love reading your posts. Keep up the great work! You know, a lot of people are looking around for this information, you could help them greatly.

  23. Heya great blog! Does running a blog like this take a large
    amount of work? I have very little understanding of coding however I had been hoping to start my own blog in the near future.

    Anyway, should you have any recommendations or tips for new blog owners please share.
    I know this is off topic but I just wanted to ask.
    Kudos!

  24. Hello there! I could have sworn I’ve been to this web site before but after
    going through some of the posts I realized
    it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely pleased I discovered it and
    I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back regularly!

  25. Hope to see more of your work soon

  26. It’s going to be finish of mine day, however before finish I am reading this enormous paragraph to increase
    my know-how.

  27. I could not refrain from commenting. Well written!

  28. How can I get a support issue to the blogger team?

  29. Le garantizamos un trato serio y profesional con un coste minimo para su reparacion de su frigorificos Balay. Nos tomamos muy en serio la reparación de su Frigorificos Liebherr, somos serios con nuestro trabajo porque lo respetamos a él y a usted. Por ello estamos permanentemente actualizándonos y renovándonos para perfeccionar nuestro servicio técnico y ofrecer la más excelente solución a su Frigorificos Liebherr.

  30. Excellent way of explaining, and nice post to get facts regarding my presentation topic, which i am going to present in college.
    Gamefly 3 month free trial

  31. What’s up, this weekend is good designed for me, since
    this time i am reading this great informative paragraph
    here at my home. Gamefly 3 month free trial

  32. Easily start a blog page on Bebo, will it get listed in search engines like Google?

  33. I do not even know the way I ended up right
    here, but I believed this put up was once good. I do not recognize who you are
    but definitely you are going to a well-known blogger if you happen to aren’t already.

    Cheers!

  34. It is perfect time to make some plans for the long run and it is time to be happy.
    I have read this publish and if I could I wish to counsel you some fascinating things or
    suggestions. Perhaps you can write subsequent articles referring to
    this article. I want to read even more issues about it!

  35. Thank you for some other informative web site.

    The place else may I get that kind of information written in such a
    perfect means? I have a mission that I’m just now working on,
    and I’ve been on the glance out for such information.

  36. Thanks , I have just been looking for info about this topic for a long time and yours is the best I have discovered till now. But, what in regards to the conclusion? Are you positive concerning the supply?

  37. If you desire to grow your familiarity simply keep visiting
    this web page and be updated with the latest information posted
    here.

  38. Hi there, of course this paragraph is really nice and
    I have learned lot of things from it concerning blogging.
    thanks.

  39. So I created a supplementary blog off my initial one, yet I now want my secondary blog page to be my own or my main blog. So that as soon and I actually sign on the newer blog page I produced would be my default blog page. If which makes any feeling… Is there a way to do this?.

  40. I visited several web sites but the audio feature for audio songs current
    at this site is truly superb.

  41. Whats a good website to begin a blog page on (a free one), and how would i do that?.

  42. Hey There. I discovered your weblog using msn. This is a really smartly written article.

    I will make sure to bookmark it and return to read more of
    your useful information. Thank you for the post.
    I’ll certainly comeback.

  43. How do you obtain menus and modules to alter language when using the Joom! Fish Joomla extension?

  44. Nice post. I learn something new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon everyday.
    It will always be useful to read through content from other writers and use something from other sites.

  45. For most recent news you have to visit the web and on internet I
    found this web page as a most excellent site for hottest updates.

  46. Y9p9Ki Right away I am ready to do my breakfast, once having my breakfast coming yet again to read additional news.|

  47. What is the best absolutely free blog/web or internet search engine directory on the internet?

  48. How do I edit a wordpress page to display the particular posts, so minus the menubars?

  49. How do you password secure a Tumblr blog on a custom website?

  50. With no asking these to delete it, is there a way i can delete my own blog page comments upon someone else’s blog? Please help(:.

  51. Good day! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be ok. I’m definitely enjoying your blog and look forward to new updates.

  52. Nice post. Thanks for sharing this fantastic post with us. I enjoy at the time of reading this article. You have done a awesome job by sharing this post with us. Keep it up.

  53. Hello, its good post regarding media print, we all know media is a impressive source of data.|

  54. Really informative article post.Really looking forward to read more. Fantastic.

  55. Im thankful for the blog article.Thanks Again. Much obliged.

  56. I was recommended this website by my cousin. I am not sure whether this post is written by him as nobody else know such detailed about my difficulty. You are amazing! Thanks!

  57. Very interesting subject , regards for posting. What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error. by Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron.

  58. You ave made some really good points there. I checked on the internet for more information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this site.

  59. Hello There. I discovered your weblog the use
    of msn. This is an extremely well written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark it and come back to
    read more of your helpful info. Thanks for the post.
    I’ll definitely comeback.

  60. Well I definitely liked reading it. This information offered by you is very constructive for proper planning.

  61. You completed various fine points there. I did a search on the matter and found most folks will have the same opinion with your blog.

  62. Thank you for your blog article.Thanks Again.

  63. I’m not that much of a internet reader to be honest but your blogs
    really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your site to come back later on. All the best

Trackbacks

  1. […] Sun-TimesFantasy Football Rankings 2011: 3 Rookie WRs Worth Drafting EarlyBleacher ReportFantasy Football Strategy Advice: Three Rules to Abide ByMidwest Sports FansHuffington Post -Patch.com -Gringoes.comall 87 news […]

  2. […] Foster vs. Adrian PetersonHuffington PostNFL Fantasy Football: Hidden draft gemsChicago Sun-TimesFantasy Football Strategy Advice: Three Rules to Abide ByMidwest Sports FansA.V. Club Denver/Boulder -Gringoes.com -SYS-CON Media (press […]

  3. […] For This Year's Fantasy Football LeagueCincy JungleCultureMap Houston -FakeTeams -Midwest Sports Fansall 101 news […]

Speak Your Mind