The Bottoms Line: Fun with Numbers – Offensive Rating and Usage Rate (Continued)

In the first installment of Fun with Numbers, we defined Offensive Rating and Usage Rate, then looked at how these two metrics can be meshed together to assess skill curves using a few simple rules of thumb.  This time around I wanted to point out a few other observations from looking at the ORtg’s and Usage Rates of other returning players.

In the interest of space, I’ll spare you the list, but I pulled a list of the Top 50 returning players in terms of Offensive Rating.  A few things that might surprise you:

— Washington placed the most players (4) on the list with Abdul Gaddy, C.J. Wilcox, Scott Suggs, and Terrence Ross all making the cut.  Now many of them achieved this status in relatively limited minutes, but given UW’s pace of play, I find this a little surprising.  It also bodes well for the Huskies to remain toward the top of the Pac-12 despite having lost a few key players.  Look for breakout seasons from Wilcox and Ross.

— Four teams (Duke,Missouri,Ohio State,Wisconsin) placed three players on the list.  I briefly touched on players from three of these teams last time around, butMissouri is interesting to me for many of the same reasons as the aforementioned Huskies.  Under the direction of Mike Anderson, the Tigers embraced his uptempo style and played at the fastest pace of any major conference team.  In my head, efficiency and fast-paced basketball are not a natural marriage, but the Tigers were able to make it work.  Regardless, with Frank Haith now at the helm, that pace is likely to slow down given thatMiamiwas about 200 spots behind Mizzou in terms of possessions per game.  It will be interesting to watch what effect, if any, that has on the efficiency of guys like Marcus Denmon, Ricardo Ratliffe, and Laurence Bowers.

— Arizona forward Kevin Parrom will be asked to take on a larger role with Derrick Williams in Minnesota, and his 122.5 ORtg bodes well for his effectiveness.  His shooting percentages, 58.5 percent on two-pointers and 41.8 percent from deep, speak well to his offensive skill level.  Just another name to file away.

— While fellow freshmen Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones earned most of the headlines forKentucky, you cannot overlook how terrific Doron Lamb was in his first season.  He posted an ORtg over 121 despite a usage rate of 19.1, thanks in large part to his deadeye shooting from three-point range.  His absurd 48.6 percent from beyond the arc places him in the Top 50 for both eFG% and True Shooting Percentage.  As has become the norm, a new crop of five-star recruits will enter the fray forUKthis year, but they would be wise to ensure Lamb still gets a steady dose of shots as a sophomore.

— The inclusion of Jordan Hulls on this list will only further the love affair that has developed with Indiana fans.  It also begs the question of why his usage rate was sixth on the squad despite posting the top Offensive Rating among the team’s key rotation guys.  Like Lamb, his efficient shooting is the main reason for his lofty rating, but his assist rate doesn’t hurt either.  A key for the Hoosiers this year will be defining roles in the backcourt between Hulls and Verdell Jones.

— Outside of Kemba Walker, no one was more responsible for UConn’s championship run than Jeremy Lamb.  WithWalker on the floor, Lamb (and pretty much every other UConn player) benefited from opposing defenses that were hell bent on stopping Kemba at all costs.  Now that he’s gone, it will be interesting to watch what happens to Lamb’s efficiency rating, which at 115.5 was among some of the nation’s best.  Maintaining that level is probably unlikely, but a well-rounded offensive game and transition baskets generated from his strong defense should prevent a precipitous fall.

In an effort to pare down the list a bit more and weed out guys with more limited usage, I looked only at players with Usage Rates of at least 20.

Player Team ORtg Usage Rate
Ashton Gibbs Pittsburgh 127.9 21.0
Marcus Denmon Missouri 127.1 20.6
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 126.9 27.4
John Jenkins Vanderbilt 123.5 22.7
C.J. Wilcox Washington 121.7 20.1
Jared Sullinger Ohio St. 120.4 27.0
Tyler Zeller North Carolina 120.1 23.0
Tim Abromaitis Notre Dame 117.0 21.1
Reggie Johnson Miami FL 115.6 24.1
Deshaun Thomas Ohio St. 115.0 27.3
Laurence Bowers Missouri 114.7 22.0
John Shurna Northwestern 114.1 24.1
Tony Mitchell Alabama 113.8 23.8
Malcolm Grant Miami FL 113.4 23.4
William Buford Ohio St. 113.2 23.2
Festus Ezeli Vanderbilt 112.8 26.9
Richard Howell North Carolina St. 112.8 22.0
Dion Dixon Cincinnati 112.7 22.4
Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati 112.4 24.2
Erving Walker Florida 112.2 23.8
Kourtney Roberson Texas A&M 111.9 22.9
Kenny Boynton Florida 111.8 22.4
Gilvydas Biruta Rutgers 110.5 23.4
Michael Dixon Missouri 110.4 24.2
Trevor Mbakwe Minnesota 110.4 23.2
Mike Scott Virginia 110.4 28.1
Joshua Smith UCLA 110.2 26.3
Harper Kamp California 109.3 22.0
Jordan Morgan Michigan 109.0 20.9
Yancy Gates Cincinnati 108.8 22.9
Tim Hardaway Michigan 108.8 24.1
J’Covan Brown Texas 108.8 24.5
Thomas Robinson Kansas 108.7 26.7
Christian Watford Indiana 108.7 28.2
Quincy Acy Baylor 108.6 21.6
Kris Joseph Syracuse 108.5 22.6
Perry Jones Baylor 108.4 21.6
Josh Owens Stanford 108.2 22.5
Brandon Wood Michigan St. 108.0 26.5
Dion Waiters Syracuse 107.6 21.3

Some quick thoughts from the above list:

— Cincinnati and Missouri each placed three players on this list.  I touched on Mizzou earlier, but I really like Cincinnati as well.  They snuck up on teams last season, and while that won’t happen again, they have a solid (and efficient) nucleus in guards Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick along with big man Yancy Gates.

— Both Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway, Jr. made this list, but this season will be a true test of how important Darius Morris was at the point.  He consistently fed Morgan the ball for dunks and layups, so without a playmaker like Morris (who was also Morgan’s roommate) in the mix, Morgan may suffer from an efficiency standpoint.  Hardaway appears better equipped to deal with the loss of Morris, and I look for him to post solid numbers in his sophomore campaign.

— Pitt guard Ashton Gibbs is the highest rated player on the list at 127.9.  His shooting percentages are phenomenal, and for a team replacing a few key contributors, his presence will be a steadying influence on the Panthers.

— Following some huge losses for Notre Dame, look for Tim Abromaitis to fall off a bit as more of the scoring burden will fall on him.  He’s an accomplished shooter, and his size gives him another asset on offense.  But what happens with Ben Hansbrough and his 26.8 assist rate gone?

— Expect to find Kansas’ Thomas Robinson on virtually every list of breakout players heading into the season.  There is significant opportunity to double his 31.6 percent of minutes played, and his efficiency numbers are terrific.  With both a high rebound rate and a shooting percentage over 60 percent, things are lined up for a big junior year for T-Rob.  There’s also the fact thatKansashas virtually no returning players, just in case you needed more evidence.

— A couple less-heralded breakout candidates are Richard Howell (North Carolina St.) and Kourtney Roberson (Texas A&M).  Howell logged just over 44 percent of his team’s minutes last year but posted the highest efficiency rating of any player with a usage rate over 13 percent.  He posted the sixth-best offensive rebound percentage in the nation and will be a bigger part of the inside attach with Tracy Smith gone.  Roberson played in only 31 percent of A&M’s minutes as a freshman but was brutally efficient while on the floor.  Like Howell, he attacked the glass, which led to a solid field goal percentage, and in Roberson’s case, the departure of Nathan Walkup opens the door for more playing time.  I also like Dion Waiters of Syracuse, but there are so many talented guards and wing players on the Orange that his role isn’t likely to increase significantly.

— Among a few underrated players on this list is Harper Kamp of Cal.  Coming off of a knee injury that cost him the 2009-10 season, the 6-foot-8 forward posted an Offensive Rating of 109.3.  His shooting numbers are solid, and he also proved adept at drawing fouls (nearly five per game) and converting at a superb rate once he got there.  He’ll team with Richard Solomon (who I am also high on) to form an efficient starting frontcourt for the Bears.

I took a similar look at the worst players from an offensive rating standpoint, and a few things stuck out:

— A whopping six LSU players are among the bottom 50, which should ensure Trent Johnson’s seat doesn’t get cold.

— Iowa had the next most players with four, although some of that could be attributed to learning Fran McCaffery’s offensive system.  It may also point out that the players he inherited at Iowa were ill-equipped to play his tempo.
Without Iman Shumpert, Mfon Udofia is essentially Georgia Tech’s only option at the point.  New coach Brian Gregory’s style is much more deliberate, which may eventually mask some of the team’s weaknesses, but placing three players on this list, including their de facto point guard, doesn’t bode well for the Jackets this year.

— The presence of three Rutgers players on this list doesn’t leave me brimming with confidence about my pick of the Scarlet Knights as a potential surprise team in the Big East.  Much like Iowa, there were some growing pains with Mike Rice’s system in year one, which contributed to some of these ugly numbers.  His hard-nosed approach on defense should help to offset some of that, but if the team can’t become more efficient, long-term success won’t be sustainable.

— One player I’ll be watching closely here is Terone Johnson, who is poised to take on a much larger role now that E’Twaun Moore has graduated.  Johnson’s shooting and consequently his efficiency were poor as a freshman, which can partly be attributed to his adjustment to the speed of the college game.  More than that, with Moore and JaJuan Johnson having the offense run through them, it was difficult for Terone to truly embrace and understand his role without getting consistent offensive opportunities.  That will obviously change this year, and the Boilers need him to step up and provide backcourt scoring.

By restricting the worst players to just those with Usage Rates over 20, the following guys emerged (or maybe submerged):

Player Team ORtg Usage Rate
Mike Poole Rutgers 84.8 21.9
Xavier Gibson Florida St. 86.6 22.4
Jeremy Jacob Oregon 86.9 26.3
Bruce Ellington South Carolina 87.7 27.6
Dorenzo Hudson Virginia Tech 88.6 21.3
Jawanza Poland South Florida 88.7 23.6
Rob Chubb Auburn 89.0 23.6
Mfon Udofia Georgia Tech 89.4 20.0
Jeff Peterson Florida St. 89.5 20.2
Malcolm White Louisiana St. 89.6 20.7
Garrett Green Louisiana St. 89.6 23.2
Markel Brown Oklahoma St. 90.2 20.1
Ralston Turner Louisiana St. 91.0 24.5
Deniz Kilicli West Virginia 91.3 26.3
Bryce Cartwright Iowa 91.6 26.2
Tony Freeland DePaul 91.6 24.2
Herb Pope Seton Hall 91.7 24.2
Julysses Nobles Arkansas 91.9 22.9
J.T. Terrell Wake Forest 92.0 26.8
Andre Stringer Louisiana St. 92.3 23.2
Dane Miller Rutgers 92.7 22.4
Josh Watkins Utah 92.9 30.2
Carl Blair Oklahoma 92.9 21.8
Roberto Nelson Oregon St. 93.5 25.3
C.J. Harris Wake Forest 93.6 20.3
Milton Jennings Clemson 93.9 25.6
Brandon Young DePaul 94.0 25.0
Storm Warren Louisiana St. 94.2 21.3
Ian Miller Florida St. 94.4 21.4
Carrick Felix Arizona St. 94.4 21.1
Verdell Jones Indiana 94.8 28.5
C.J. Leslie North Carolina St. 95.1 27.0
Faisal Aden Washington St. 95.1 27.2
Kenny Gabriel Auburn 95.5 23.0
Kim English Missouri 95.8 21.4
Toney McCray Nebraska 96.0 22.8
Lorenzo Brown North Carolina St. 96.2 21.1
Augustus Gilchrist South Florida 96.3 28.3
Andrew Fitzgerald Oklahoma 96.4 24.6
Rakeem Buckles Louisville 96.9 23.4

Not a ton of new ground to cover here, but a couple things stick out:

— I included recent Florida State transfer Jeff Peterson in the list despite the fact that his efficiency numbers are a product of his efforts last season at Arkansas.  Still, that gives the Noles three players in the bottom 40.  Not good news for a team that tends to struggle offensively and lost two of their top players.

— When you look at Milton Jennings’ raw numbers compared to his playing time, expanded minutes would seem to make him a potential breakout candidate.  His usage rate was the highest on the team, but his Offensive Rating was among the worst.  Part of the issue was his insistence on shooting three-pointers (82 on the season) despite an awful conversion rate from beyond the arc.  Jennings’ rebounding percentages look solid, and his ability to play to his strengths on offense will determine his long-term success.

Finally, I pulled a list of all returning players with usage rates of 25 or greater, which gave me the 41 names below.

Player Team ORtg Usage Rate
JaMychal Green Alabama 105.6 30.9
Josh Watkins Utah 92.9 30.2
Renardo Sidney Mississippi St. 98.9 29.5
Verdell Jones Indiana 94.8 28.5
Augustus Gilchrist South Florida 96.3 28.3
Christian Watford Indiana 108.7 28.2
Mike Scott Virginia 110.4 28.1
Khris Middleton Texas A&M 107.5 27.9
Terrence Jones Kentucky 104.6 27.9
Maalik Wayns Villanova 103.8 27.7
Bruce Ellington South Carolina 87.7 27.6
Dee Bost Mississippi St. 100.4 27.6
Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 126.9 27.4
Deshaun Thomas Ohio St. 115.0 27.3
Faisal Aden Washington St. 95.1 27.2
Jared Sullinger Ohio St. 120.4 27.0
C.J. Leslie North Carolina St. 95.1 27.0
Festus Ezeli Vanderbilt 112.8 26.9
Terrell Stoglin Maryland 105.2 26.9
Marshawn Powell Arkansas 100.5 26.8
J.T. Terrell Wake Forest 92.0 26.8
Thomas Robinson Kansas 108.7 26.7
Brandon Wood Michigan St. 108.0 26.5
Dundrecous Nelson Mississippi 100.3 26.5
Cleveland Melvin DePaul 103.9 26.4
Joshua Smith UCLA 110.2 26.3
Jeremy Jacob Oregon 86.9 26.3
Deniz Kilicli West Virginia 91.3 26.3
Bryce Cartwright Iowa 91.6 26.2
Jeffery Taylor Vanderbilt 104.7 25.7
Draymond Green Michigan St. 106.8 25.7
Darius Johnson-Odom Marquette 106.8 25.6
Jorge Gutierrez California 102.6 25.6
Milton Jennings Clemson 93.9 25.6
Darryl Bryant West Virginia 101.2 25.6
Glen Rice Georgia Tech 99.0 25.5
Trent Lockett Arizona St. 102.5 25.4
Roberto Nelson Oregon St. 93.5 25.3
J.P. Olukemi Oklahoma St. 106.0 25.1
Harrison Barnes North Carolina 105.8 25.0
Brandon Young DePaul 94.0 25.0

A few brief thoughts:

— Verdell Jones and Christian Watford give Indiana two of the top six Usage Rates.  In Watford’s case, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing given the improvement in his offensive game and his ability to draw fouls.  He also makes the most of his opportunities when he gets to the stripe, connecting on 84 percent of his 166 attempts last year.  I touched on Jones in the first installment of this series, and while he is also adept at drawing fouls, the results aren’t as positive due to his pedestrian conversion rate from the line.  Turnovers also widen the gap between them, with Jones far more apt to use possessions by losing the ball.

— I was surprised to see Alabama’s JaMychal Green atop the list with a 30.9 usage rate.  Part of that can be attributed to his 19.7 turnover rate, but he also took 28.5 percent of his team’s shots while he was on the floor.  The turnovers held down his overall efficiency numbers, but he still posted a respectable 105.6 rating.

— The much-maligned Renardo Sidney posted a predictably high usage rate after taking nearly one-third of his team’s shots while he was on the floor.  He also posted a turnover rate near 20, but for all the negatives about his game, Sidney did show some signs of improvement late in the season.  That said, a taste of success could have a negative impact if Sidney views that success as a license to do whatever he wants on the offensive end.  At the very least, it will be another test of Sidney’s maturity.

— As a freshman, Terrence Jones had the highest usage rate of any Kentucky player.  His return to Lexington was among the bigger surprises of the offseason, and with a monster recruiting class, it seems unlikely Jones will see the same slice of the possession pie.  In the end, that could be good news for Jones’ efficiency if he continues to draw fouls at a high rate and take care of the ball while cutting back on his three-point shooting.

— It’s amazing what a wide range of Offensive Ratings span this group, as 40 points separate Jeremy Jacob of Oregon and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor.  Part of this can be attributed to the preponderance of youthful players who are unable to recognize their own strengths and weaknesses, but it also speaks to coaches who are putting players in roles where they are unable to excel and help the team.

In the next installment, I plan to delve into some of the advanced shooting metrics like Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG) and True Shooting Percentage.

Follow me on Twitter for more college hoops thoughts and insight.



About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Andy ranks among the top bracketologists according to the Bracket Matrix and has provided his projections to Fox Sports for the past three seasons. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate and co-hosts The Assembly Call postgame show following every IU game. Twitter: @AndyBottoms

Comments

  1. You’ve made some good points there. I looked on the web for additional information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.

  2. They are a very good way to promote business service. The says of free proxies and tunnelling services are over, and as the Chinese government begins to tighten its grip on what comes in and out of the country informationally speaking, the need for a vpn to bypass internet censorship in China grows every day. To report stolen email addresses at Yahoo, click Yahoo.

  3. Superb blog you have here but I was wanting to know if you knew of any community forums that cover the same topics discussed here? I’d really like to be a part of online community where I can get suggestions from other experienced individuals that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Many thanks!

  4. Thanks for one’s marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed reading it, you may be a great author.I will remember to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back sometime soon. I want to encourage that you continue your great work, have a nice morning!

  5. Keep working ,splendid job!

  6. I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great. I don’t know who you are but certainly you’re going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already Cheers!Look at my web page … after effects wiggle expression (Amelia)

  7. Hello my friend! I want to say that this post is awesome, nice written and include almost all vital infos. I would like to see more posts like this .

  8. wh0cd969033 [url=http://colchicineonline.us.com/]order colchicine[/url] [url=http://citalopram20.us.com/]citalopram for fibromyalgia[/url] [url=http://lexapro2016.us/]how to order lexapro online[/url] [url=http://costofcymbalta.us.com/]cymbalta medicine[/url]

  9. http://lasix.phartesdomusa.org/ maximum lasix dosage in 24 hours

  10. Hey! I understand this is kind of off-topic however I had to ask.
    Does building a well-established blog such as yours require a lot
    of work? I am brand new to blogging but I do write in my journal every
    day. I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my experience
    and thoughts online. Please let me know if you have any suggestions or
    tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

  11. Great article, just what I wanted to find.

  12. Due for the report! We are really at a clean place….we will be at the ROCK College or university (Wide & Washington) 1101 Extensive Road, Philadelphia, PA. Arrive via…We’ll preserve the mild upon for ya!

  13. Great items from you, man. I’ve take into accout
    your stuff previous to and you are simply too great.
    I really like what you’ve received right here, certainly like what you’re stating and
    the way by which you assert it. You’re making it
    enjoyable and you still care for to stay it smart.
    I can’t wait to read far more from you. This is actually a wonderful site.

  14. My brother suggested I might like this web site.
    He was totally right. This post truly made my day. You cann’t imagine just how much time I had spent for this info!

    Thanks!

  15. Hi to every body, it’s my first visit of this
    blog; this web site contains remarkable and truly
    fine material in support of visitors.

  16. Its like you read my mind! You appear to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but other than that, this is great blog. A fantastic read. I’ll certainly be back.

  17. This is the right blog for anyone who really wants to understand this topic.
    You know so much its almost tough to argue
    with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa).
    You definitely put a fresh spin on a subject that’s been written about for a long time.
    Wonderful stuff, just wonderful!

  18. Wow! This can be one particular of the most beneficial blogs We have ever arrive across on this subject. Actually Magnificent. I am also an expert in this topic therefore I can understand your hard work.

  19. Aw, this was a really nice post. Spending some time and actual effort to make a top notch article…
    but what can I say… I put things off a lot and never manage to get nearly anything done.

  20. I enjoy what you guys are usually up too. This sort of clever
    work and reporting! Keep up the wonderful works guys I’ve added you guys to our blogroll.

  21. It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I desire to read even more things about it!My blog post louis vuitton outlet

  22. Attractive element of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and
    in accession capital to claim that I acquire in fact loved account your weblog posts.

    Anyway I will be subscribing for your feeds and even I success you access consistently rapidly.

  23. I am not sure where you are getting your information, but great topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more. Thanks for fantastic information I was looking for this information for my mission.

  24. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Chrome. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design look great though! Hope you get the problem fixed soon. Kudos

  25. I have recently started a site, the info you offer on this web site has helped me tremendously. Thanks for all of your time & work.

  26. My spouse and I stumbled over here by a different page
    and thought I may as well check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you.
    Look forward to looking into your web page repeatedly.

  27. At this time I am going to do my breakfast, once having my breakfast coming over again to read more news.Review my blog post; Maximo

  28. Nice post. I learn something new and challenging on sites I stumbleupon on a daily basis. It’s always interesting to read articles from other writers and use something from other websites.

  29. In the interest of space, I’ll spare you the list, but I pulled a list of the Top 50 returning players in terms of Offensive Rating.
    Bandar Togel indonesia

Speak Your Mind