The Pac-12 is the final major conference in my series of early looks at the college hoops landscape for 2011-12.
It’s not exactly a case of saving the best for last, as the last couple years have not ranked among the league’s best with the obvious exception being Arizona dumptrucking Duke in the tournament last year. The conference’s four NCAA bids last season doubled the total from 2009-10, but with eight of the league’s 10 First-Team All-Conference performers gone, that resurgence may be short-lived. (As a side note, I have no clue why they picked 10 guys for the First-Team. There is also no truth to the rumor that everyone received participation ribbons at the end of the season. )
Compared to the other conferences, there are fewer top recruits entering the fray this year, and in most early rankings, only one team made the cut. There seems to be a pretty clear-cut top four teams with a number of hardcore rebuilding efforts underway.
The Pac-12 recently announced its schedule for this year, and there will be no divisions for basketball, which means an unbalanced schedule. That also means there is no logical way for me to split this up, so here are the first six teams alphabetically.
Arizona
Despite the loss of leading scorer and rebounder Derrick Williams, Sean Miller’s squad is the highest rated team in the early rankings I checked out. That speaks highly to the job Miller has done both on the sideline and the recruiting trail, and this year he adds a Top 10 class to a core group of veterans.
The Wildcats return seven players who averaged more than nine minutes and five who scored at least 4.9 points, although none of them posted more than 8.1 per game. Guard Kyle Fogg has shown the ability to score in bunches, but he lacked consistency last year. Part of that can be attributed to a drop in his three-point shooting, but Miller will need more out of him as a senior.
Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom give the Wildcats a solid tandem on the wing. Hill finished second on the team in rebounding with nearly five per game. Like Fogg, he’ll need to be more consistent, but there should also be more shots to go around with Williams and MoMo Jones out of the picture. Parrom shot 50.8 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from beyond the arc, and he should also benefit from an increased workload. He showed a nice jump between his freshman and sophomore years and appears poised for another bump this season.
Jesse Perry is one of few returning inside players, and at 6-foot-7, he’ll be asked to provide a rebounding presence down low. He grabbed 4.4 boards in under 20 minutes of action last season and finished on a high note with 14 points and seven rebounds in a loss to UConn. Kyryl Natyazhko also provides returning size inside at 6-foot-11.
The other notable returnee is Jordin Mayes, who canned better than 45 percent from deep as a freshman and should provide scoring off the bench.
As for the highly touted recruiting class, all four members should be part of the rotation this season. Point guard Josiah Turner is likely to slip into the starting lineup thanks to the transfer of MoMo Jones, provided his eligibility isn’t impacted by a current investigation. Turner boasts terrific speed, which allows him to get to the rim with ease and excel off the dribble. His jumpshot is improving, but his passing ability will allow him to impact the team early on.
Backcourt mate Nick Johnson is a fierce competitor and does a number of things well on both ends of the floor, including his ability to finish above the rim. A general lack of depth at guard will land him playing time right away, and he might just play himself into the starting lineup. Up front, Angelo Chol and Sidiki Johnson provide some much-needed size. Chol is long and athletic, which will allow him to impact the game through his rebounding and shot-blocking while his offensive game evolves. Johnson is physically ready for the college game and brings good mobility to the table.
Although there is plenty of talent on the roster, there are still a number of question marks. Jones’ departure may turn out to be addition by subtraction, but it forces Arizona to rely on youth at the point. Inside play is the other key, as Perry needs to become a force and at least one of Chol and Johnson needs to step up as a freshman. Even so, Miller’s coaching should help to offset that along with what looks to be another down year for the league as a whole.
Arizona State
On the heels of a 12-19 season, the Sun Devils lost three of their top four scorers, their top two assist men, and their top three long-range shooters. They do add a couple nice pieces, but it’s tough to foresee much (if any) improvement in the win column.
Shooting guard Trent Lockett will be the focal point of the offense after leading the team in scoring with 13.4 points per game last season. He shot an impressive 51.6 percent from the field and finished second on the squad in rebounding from his backcourt position. Lockett posted five 20-point games but was also held to single digits on eight occasions. Still, he’s the go-to guy for Herb Sendek’s club.
Once you get past Lockett, no other returnee averaged more than six points. Forward Kyle Cain led the squad in rebounding and converted on 54.5 percent of his attempts. Look for more scoring from him this season after showing flashes last year, most notably with a 13-point, 17-rebound outburst against Houston Baptist and a 12-point, 16-board affair versus Long Beach State.
Carrick Felix, Keala King, Chanse Creekmur, and Ruslan Pateev also return to the rotation. Felix played well when given extended minutes in the middle of the season and will look to build on that as a sophomore. King has a variety of skills but struggled to adjust to the college game as evidenced by his poor shooting percentages and inconsistent playing time. Creekmur did most of his scoring in a couple games last season, and Pateev provides a presence inside due to his size.
There are three new faces on the roster, with two of them expected to play large roles right away. Jahii Carson is a Top 10 point guard, and despite his lack of height, his speed and strength allow him to get into the lane. He can also knock down three-pointers but needs to focus on making smart plays at the point and not forcing the action. Chris Colvin joins Carson in the backcourt after averaging 13 points and six assists at Palm Beach Junior College. He started his career at Iowa State and has a shot to crack the starting lineup immediately.
The other new player is Jonathan Gilling who hails from Denmark, where he averaged 15.2 points and hit 36 percent of his three-pointers. At 6-foot-8, he adds some size to the roster as well.
There isn’t much you can point to here if you are looking for reasons to expect a rebound from ASU. There is only one proven scorer on the team and very little in the way of size for a group that also doesn’t have accomplished shooters who can spread out opposing defenses. The Sun Devils appear headed for a finish in the bottom third of the league.
California
Of the top four returning scorers in conference games, three of them play for Cal, which gives the Bears a strong foundation and positive outlook heading into the season. In addition to their top three scorers, they return six of their top seven rebounders and their top two assist men.
Point guard Jorge Gutierrez is the team’s heart and soul and led the team in scoring, assists, and steals last season. He is not an elite shooter by any means, but he got to the foul line 201 times last year, converting on 80 percent of his attempts. Gutierrez reached double figures in 25 of 33 contests, including a 34-point outburst where he carried the team to an overtime win over UCLA. A decrease in his 3.0 turnovers per game is a reasonable expectation, which should make Cal’s offense even more effective.
Reigning conference Freshman of the Year Allen Crabbe joins Gutierrez in the backcourt. Crabbe knocked down 40 percent from beyond the arc and proved to be an effective rebounder with over five boards per game. Despite a heavy workload, he stayed fresh down the stretch, including one five-game run toward the end of the year where he averaged 22 points.
Up front, Harper Kamp converted on 52.8 percent from the field and scored at least eight points in all but three games. He also finished second on the team with 5.6 rebounds per game, and with big man Markhuri Sanders-Frison gone, Kamp will be asked to shoulder more of the frontcourt load.
The X-factor for this team may well be Richard Solomon. The 6-foot-8 forward put up 5.6 points and 4.4 rebounds in 15.7 minutes of action last year, and he should see his playing time skyrocket as a sophomore. Nearly one-third of his rebounds came on the offensive glass, which contributed to his 55.8 percent shooting.
Point guard Brandon Smith is the other returnee of note after averaging 3.9 assists last year. He also hit better than 41 percent from deep, albeit in limited attempts. Redshirt freshman Alex Rossi adds additional backcourt depth. He missed last season following hernia surgery but was hailed as an elite shooter coming out of high school.
Coach Mike Montgomery adds Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs to the backcourt mix. He averaged just over two points in his lone season for the Gophers before transferring closer to home.
The lone freshman expected to contribute is David Kravish. He’s a bit thin but has good length and a high motor. Expect his main contributions to come via rebounds and blocked shots while he puts on some weight.
Cal returns a number of experienced and productive players, including their underrated point guard and leader in Gutierrez. If Solomon can step up inside to offset limited depth there, this team could wind up winning the league. They’re my dark horse pick as of right now.
Colorado
Perhaps the Buffs would not have been left out of the NCAA Tournament last season had they been playing in the Pac-10. As it stands, Colorado enters the conference while replacing their top four scorers. In fact, no one returns who played over 23 minutes or scored more than seven points per game, with just two returnees averaging better than 3.1 points.
Only three guys who played last season look to factor prominently in the rotation. Andre Roberson led the team with nearly eight boards per game despite playing only 22 minutes per contest. At 6-foot-7, Roberson is listed as a guard, where he is able to use his size to his advantage, particularly on the offensive glass. He posted five double-doubles and shot 58 percent from the field. Look for much more from him as a sophomore given the wealth of scoring Coach Tad Boyle will be looking to replace.
Forward Austin Dufault shot better than 52 percent from the field, but of his nine double-digit scoring games, just one came after January 8. He’ll certainly get more shots this season and will be counted on to be among the team leaders in rebounding.
In the backcourt, Nate Tomlinson made 46.3 percent from beyond the arc in limited attempts and dished out 2.5 assists per game. With Alec Burks and Cory Higgins gone though, it’s unclear who will be on the receiving end of those dimes.
Utah transfer Carlon Brown seems to be a prime candidate for that after posting 12.6 points for the Utes in 2009-10. He also chipped in with 4.1 boards, but don’t be surprised to see him to lead the Buffs in scoring this season.
Big man Shane Harris-Tunks also returns after redshirting last season due to a torn ACL. At 6-foot-11, he has great size but parlayed that into relatively little production as a freshman two years ago. Given the team’s lack of size, he is in line for major minutes either way.
Four new players will be asked to contribute early on. Juco transfer Jeremy Adams redshirted as a freshman at Texas A&M before moving on to Navarro Junior College, where he averaged 12.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.4 steals last year. Expect him to be one of the first guys off the bench if he doesn’t crack the starting lineup.
Freshman Askia Booker is very athletic and can finish at the rim or knock down jumpers. He projects as a point guard but needs to work on decision-making and shot selection. Spencer Dinwiddie adds depth at the point. He’s been praised for his savvy but needs to add weight and improve his shooting. The final freshman is forward Damiene Cain who has nice footwork and makes up for his size with his competitive spirit.
This team lost a ton of scoring and leadership, both of which will be hard to replace. Brown is intriguing as a transfer and Roberson could be a breakout performer, but the team has questions virtually everywhere.
Oregon
The Ducks lost three of their top four scorers, their top rebounder, and their top assist man, but thanks to a pair of transfers and a Top 25 recruiting class, things are not as bleak as they might seem for the defending CBI Champions.
Oregon’s top returnee is E.J. Singler, whose brother Kyle is just slightly more well-known in college basketball circles. E.J. is effective in his own right with 11.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game as a sophomore last season. He also canned nearly 40 percent of his triples and finished strong by averaging 15.1 points over the final nine games. Look for continued improvement from Singler as a junior.
Guard Garrett Sim is the top returnee in the backcourt. His production was inconsistent as a junior, and he shoots a few too many three-pointers for someone who has yet to make better than 35 percent from beyond the arc. He is basically the default option at point guard with Malcolm Armstead gone, although Johnathan Loyd will also be in the mix to start the season.
Most of the other returning contributors are in the frontcourt. Jeremy Jacob saw his season cut short due to arthroscopic knee surgery after posting 6.2 points and 3.5 boards in just 14.6 minutes per contest. Tyrone Nared returns after contributing mainly on the glass last year. One of these two guys has to step up following the departure of Joevan Catron.
Olu Ashaolu and Devoe Joseph are the transfers I alluded to above. Ashaolu is eligible immediately after graduating from Louisiana Tech where he posted 14.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 1.0 steals last year. He’s a bit undersized at 6-foot-6 but is a talented athlete who will start in the frontcourt. Joseph previously played for Minnesota and will likely slide in at the point when he becomes eligible for the second half of the season. He was a double-digit scorer for the Gophers and also dished out 3.5 assists per game.
Among the other newcomers, shooting guard Jabari Brown is the most highly touted. He projects as an elite shooter who can also get to the rim or take his man into the post. Brown needs to improve his rebounding and defense, but his scoring ability adds another dimension to the Oregon backcourt.
Fellow freshman guards Brett Kingma and Bruce Barron also join the team, with Kingma another accomplished shooter and Barron a tough playmaker and slasher.
Juco transfer Carlos Emery was a First-Team Junior College All-American after averaging 16.4 points and 7.9 rebounds at Howard College. He posted those numbers while dealing with colitis, which caused him to lose upwards of 20 pounds.
With just two players over 6-foot-8, size is a concern for the Ducks, but undersized players like Ashaolu and Emery should help to offset that. The team did not shoot a high percentage last season, and some of the incoming freshmen may well be their best pure shooters. The final question centers around point guard play until Joseph becomes eligible, with Sim the most likely candidate. There are some interesting pieces of here, but don’t expect Oregon to finish in the top third of the league just yet.
Oregon State
The good news is the Beavers return three of their top four scorers and two of their top three rebounders along with their top assist man. The bad news is that crew of players went 11-20 and were one of the worst major conference teams in the nation while averaging three more turnovers than assists per game and shooting barely over 30 percent from three-point range.
Despite the team’s struggles, Jared Cunningham asserted himself as one of the better scorers in the league, averaging 14.2 points as a sophomore. He wound up with seven 20-point games and proved particularly adept at getting to the free throw line with 213 attempts from the stripe. Cunningham also chipped in with nearly three steals on the defensive end and his 2.1 assists were good for third on the team. If there’s a bright spot for this team, it’s clearly the play of Cunningham.
Backcourt mate Ahmad Starks scored nearly eight points per game as a true freshman and is in line to start at point guard this year. His shooting left something to be desired, but he was one of few ballhandlers on the team to have more assists than turnovers. That said, he averaged just 1.5 assists per game, but with so few other options, he’s the de facto choice.
Roberto Nelson finally suited up for the Beavers and had his share of ups and downs. With five players suspended, he poured in 34 points and played all 40 minutes against Arizona State, but he had plenty of other games where he scored just two points. Nelson wound up averaging just over 17 minutes, but the talent is there if he can ever put it all together.
In the frontcourt, the team will count on returnees Devon Collier and Joe Burton. Collier shot 57.8 percent from the field and finished third on the team in rebounding at 4.4 per game. Burton’s 5.6 boards were good for second on the squad, while his 2.4 assists actually led the team. Both showed glimpses last season and will be counted on without Omari Johnson on the team. Angus Brandt and Kevin McShane provide additional size inside, with Brandt the more likely to see an uptick in his stats.
Just two newcomers join the team in Daniel Gomis and Challe Burton. Gomis has some upside due to his motor, but he is unlikely to contribute much offensively this year. Barton comes to the team from Sweden where he gained experience for the U18 team in the FIBA Championships. He should be one of the first guards off the bench.
There is plenty of room for improvement here, but very few things point toward that happening. The team has big questions at the point guard spot and didn’t take good care of the ball last season. They also didn’t shoot well nor did they add anyone likely to improve that situation. It looks like another long season in Corvallis.
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* – Sean Miller photo credit: Ethan Miller/Getty via B/R
About Andy Bottoms
