There is no shortage of storylines in the ACC.
You have the team ranked atop most early 2011-12 rankings, the top-rated incoming freshman according to Rivals, two Top 10 recruiting classes, and four new coaches to name just a few.
Outside of what appears to be a clear-cut Top Three teams in the league, the middle of the pack has plenty of parity, which should make for an interesting season.
Boston College
Outside of St. John’s, it’s hard to find a team that lost more than the Eagles, who are looking to replace their top five scorers, rebounders, and assist men. In just his second season, Steve Donahue returns just two players who logged at least 14 minutes per game and no one who averaged more than 4.1 points. Returning guards Danny Rubin and Gabriel Moton will likely start by default, and forward Cortney Dunn should see a huge bump in his 7.7 minutes per game.
Oregon transfer Matthew Humphrey should crack the starting lineup as well. Humphrey posted 5.4 points in just 16 minutes per contest for the Ducks and was regarded as a potent scorer coming out of high school.
Obviously with so much lost there will be plenty of new faces for BC, with many of them making the long trek across country from California. Power forward Ryan Anderson has been praised for his shooting touch and passing ability, which will likely allow the reigning Gatorade Player of the Year from California a shot to start right away. Kyle Caudill brings terrific size and fundamentals to the frontcourt, but his conditioning will need to improve in order to log extended minutes.
In the backcourt, Jordan Daniels brings great quickness to the point, although he’s likely to serve in a backup role this year. Fellow guard Lonnie Jackson has been lauded for his basketball IQ and range, although like many freshman he needs to add strength. The same can be said for center Dennis Clifford, who came on strong late in his high school career thanks to his versatility. Recent signee Patrick Heckmann is a German guard who led his team in scoring at the 2010 European Championships. With a team in desperate need of scoring, he should see plenty of playing time early on.
Donahue’s coaching chops will be tested during what will most certainly be a rebuilding year. It seems hard to imagine BC finishing in anywhere but last place.
Clemson
The Tigers spent the latter part of the season firmly on the bubble before gaining one of the last four at-large bids. After losing their top two scorers, top rebounder, and top assist man from that squad, the Tigers have some holes to fill. However, they do return four players who tallied at least 7.8 points and six who logged at least 10 minutes per game.
Senior point guard Andre Young stands only 5-foot-9, but he managed to post 20 double-digit scoring efforts, including a 22-point outburst in a season-ending loss to West Virginia. Young posted a solid 2.55 assist-to-turnover ratio and canned nearly 40 percent of his triples. With Demontez Stitt gone, the Tigers will need more scoring and consistency from Young.
Fellow senior Tanner Smith joins him in the backcourt. Smith played nearly 30 minutes per game but saw his scoring and rebounding fall last year, so he’ll be looking to bounce back in his final season.
Up front, coach Brad Brownell will be counting on continued growth from Milton Jennings and Devin Booker. Jennings, a former McDonald’s All-American, posted 8.3 points and 5.2 boards in just over 20 minutes per game. He did have some normal freshman peaks and valleys last year, but I expect a nice jump in production with increased playing time. Booker showed improvement in his sophomore season and will be counted on even more with Jerai Grant gone. Small forward Bryan Narcisse should see an expanded role as well.
As for incoming recruits, the Tigers add five new faces. Top among those is power forward Bernard Sullivan who boasts nice versatility and a solid low-post game. K.J. McDaniels has a high motor and should provide depth on the wing. Guards T.J. Sapp and Devin Coleman have both been tabbed as streaky shooters, but they should see time due to a lack of backcourt depth.
Overall, Clemson has some solid pieces inside to go with Young at the point. One potential concern is outside shooting, which was relatively poor last season outside of Young and the now-departed Demontez Stitt. If Jennings can make the leap though, they have the potential to finish toward the top of a crowded middle tier.
Duke
Despite the losses of Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and Kyrie Irving, the Blue Devils still find themselves ranked in the Top 10 of most early rankings. Before we get to a highly touted recruiting class, there is some talent returning, including six players who averaged at least 9.9 minutes and five who scored between 4.8 and 9.0 points.
Guards Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are the top returning scorers, with 9.0 and 8.1 points, respectively. Both canned over 42 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc, while Curry ranked third on the squad in assists and second in steals.
Inside, Mason and Miles Plumlee join Ryan Kelly. Mason pulled down a team-high 8.4 boards last year to go with nearly two blocks, but the Blue Devils need more his offensive game to evolve. Miles managed nearly five rebounds in just 17 minutes per game and seems to be on a similar developmental path as his older brother. Kelly dramatically increased his production as a sophomore and will continue to provide depth up front.
Highly touted recruits Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton played sparingly as freshmen but will have the opportunity at expanded roles this season if they can hold off another batch of talented newcomers.
This year’s second-rated recruiting class has a little of everything. Guard Austin Rivers garnered multiple High School Player of the Year Awards and can do it all. He has terrific range but can also pull up for mid-range shots, use a deadly floater in the lane, or get to the rim. Look for him on All-American teams by the end of the year.
Small forward Michael Gbinije has been lauded for his strong fundamentals and smooth jumper, making him a Top 30 recruit by most services. A third Plumlee, Marshall, enters the fold up front, although he’ll likely be eased into things as his brothers were.
Quinn Cook’s quickness and passing make him an intriguing point guard prospect, and small forward Alex Murphy’s versatility can help created mismatches while he works to add muscle.
Duke lost plenty of star power, but the addition of Rivers helps to offset that. The keys will be Mason Plumlee’s offensive development and for someone to step up at the point, presumably Thornton or Cook.
Florida State
Leonard Hamilton lost just two players from last season’s Sweet 16 squad, but both Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen were multi-category contributors who will be tough to replace. Still, there is a ton of depth in Tallahassee with nine returning players who played at least 9.8 minutes per game last year.
Guard Michael Snaer has posted nearly identical stats in his first two season, but he needs to take on more of the scoring load as a junior. Up front, 26-year old Bernard James played some of his best basketball down the stretch and shot a superb 65.7 percent from the field. He posted 8.6 points, 5.9 boards, and 2.4 blocks in just 21 minutes per game, so expect a terrific senior season from him.
Look for improvement from soph Okaro White, who showed flashes as a freshman and made better than 80 percent from the line. Xavier Gibson and Terrence Shannon add even more bulk and rebounding down low.
There are a number of pieces to mix and match with Snaer in the backcourt. Luke Loucks finished second on the team in assists and should see an expanded role at the point. Shooting guards Deividas Dulkys and Ian Miller will compete for a starting spot as well. Dulkys saw his three-point shooting dropped off last season, which led to inconsistent scoring. Miller showed flashes in 23 games as a true freshman and should be improved this season.
Some promising recruits add further roster depth. Small forward Antwan Space boasts a smooth shooting stroke, and at least a couple services have him listed as a Top 70 recruit. Aaron Thomas is an athletic shooting guard, who can get to the rim and help out on the boards, and fellow guard Terry Whisnant’s outside shooting adds a dimension lacking from last season’s squad.
Up front, Kiel Turpin, son of the late Mel Turpin, is coming off of a Junior College Championship run that saw him earn tournament MVP honors. He provides more size down low and will be able to help out immediately with rebounding and shot-blocking.
Defensive intensity is a given for the Noles, and their depth is terrific. Offense has held this team back in the past, but some of the recruits should help to address that. Someone needs to step up as a go-to scorer with Singleton and Kitchen gone, but this has all the makings of a Top 25 team.
Georgia Tech
The good news for new coach Brian Gregory is that the Jackets return three of their top four scorers. The bad news is that Iman Shumpert, who led the squad in points, rebounds, assists, and steals, remained in the NBA Draft. That leaves serious questions at the point for a team that already had more turnovers than assists.
Mfon Udofia looks like the de facto option at point guard, although he needs to improve his shooting or else defenses will dare him to make shots.
Look for Glen Rice Jr. and Brian Oliver to pace the offensive attack. Rice had six 20-point games but saw his three-point shooting decrease dramatically. Oliver saw a similar decline in his outside shooting and missed a number of games late due to a thumb injury. Both are solid on the boards and should bounce back from a shooting standpoint.
Guard Jason Morris knocked down 40 percent from beyond the arc last season and should see a nice bump in his scoring as he increases his 18.3 minutes per game. Arkansas State transfer Brandon Reed adds backcourt depth as well. Reed posted better than 15 points per game in 2009-10 but is more of a volume shooter.
In the frontcourt, Daniel Miller will start at center. Miller led the team in blocks and was third in rebounding, but he needs to become more of an offensive threat by improving his shooting from the field and the line. Kammeon Holsey and Nate Hicks also return up front to add size, rebounding, and shot-blocking. Hicks led the team in field goal percentage at 56.7, albeit in limited attempts.
The only true freshman is forward Julian Royal, who has shown the ability to score inside or with a mid-range jumper. Royal’s work on the glass will also be critical, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him start early on.
Gregory’s Dayton squads have been tough defensively but virtually unwatchable on offense. Without a proven point guard, those offensive questions will follow him to Atlanta. There are some interesting pieces here, but there are no proven inside scorers on a team that shot worse than 30 percent from three-point land last year.
Maryland
Aside from their coach and four of their top five scorers and rebounders, the Terps didn’t lose much from last year. And while I like the Mark Turgeon hire, he only managed to retain one of the three recruits who had signed to play for Gary Williams. All of that, along with a glaring lack of height, could make for a long season.
The strength of this team will clearly be in the backcourt. Terrell Stoglin was impressive as a freshman, averaging 11.4 points and 3.3 assists in less than 22 minutes per game. Like all freshmen, he had his ups and downs, highlighted by a seven-game stretch where we poured in over 20 points per game and another four-game stretch where he scored 14 total points. Expect more consistency from him this year.
Fellow guard Sean Mosley came out of the gate strong with 21 points in the season opener, but his overall production dropped across the board as a junior. Pe’Shon Howard also returns to the backcourt after finishing third on the team in assists last year while posting an assist-to-turnover ratio close to 2.0.
On the wing, Haukur Palsson led the team in three-point shooting, albeit in just 29 attempts. His minutes ramped up toward the end of the season, and he should be one of the first guys off the bench as a sophomore. Fellow soph Mychal Parker was a highly regarded recruit but played sparingly as he struggled to adjust to the college game. With limited depth, he should get a second chance this year.
Up front is where things get interesting with Jordan Williams gone. Junior James Padgett is the top returning frontcourt option after playing just 8.7 minutes per game and scoring 3.3 points last season. He’s joined up front by Ashton Pankey, who played three minutes all of last year before having a steel rod put in his leg. He adds another big body, which the Terps sorely need. The only other option down low is Dutch center Berend Weijs who has good size but barely played last year.
The lone newcomer is long and athletic guard Nick Faust who does a number of things well and adds some scoring pop to the team. Even if he doesn’t start, expect him to see major minutes.
Turgeon’s teams are typically tough defensively, but the dearth of interior scoring and depth will make his first season a long one. I’d expect them to go small out of necessity, but given some of the talented big men in the ACC, that could also be a recipe for disaster.
Miami (FL)
I’m still somewhat puzzled by the Frank Haith hiring at Missouri, but Haith didn’t leave the cupboard bare for successor Jim Larranaga. The only notable loss was Adrian Thomas, but overall, Larranaga inherits a team returning its top three scorers (and seven of its top eight), its top two rebounders (seven of the top eight again), and its top four assist men. Seven players return who logged at least 13.9 minutes per game, with all of them averaging at least four points.
Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott form a terrific, yet underrated, backcourt. Grant led the team in scoring and assists while knocking down 42.3 percent from deep and over 85 percent from the line. He scored in double figures 29 times as a junior and should lead the team again this year. Scott does a little of everything, finishing second in scoring, rebounding, and assists while leading the team in steals. He also reached double figures 29 times and played some of his best basketball down the stretch. The only chink in their armor is that both turn the ball over a bit too much.
The anchor down low is power forward Reggie Johnson. He’s improved his conditioning significantly, nearly doubling his minutes per game last season. Johnson made nearly 60 percent of his shots and came close to averaging a double-double with 11.9 points and 9.6 boards. Better than 36 percent of his rebounds came on the offensive end, and he blocked better than a shot per game. As he continues to improve his health and conditioning, Johnson can only become more effective.
Garrius Adams, Rion Brown, and DeQuan Jones also return to provide depth on the wing. Each of them showed flashes at various times last year and provide Larranaga the pieces he needs to run his style of offense. Julian Gamble, who was an effective rebounder last season, also returns to bolster the frontcourt.
A pair of transfers should also see playing time. Center Kenny Kadji was a highly rated player in the class of 2008, but things didn’t work out for him at Florida in terms of health or playing time. Trey McKinney-Jones left UMKC after averaging 10.9 points, 3.8 boards, and 2.0 assists in 2009-10, and he’ll provide additional depth behind Grant and Scott at guard.
With so many returning players, there will be only one freshman on the roster. Guard Bishop Daniels has been described as a highlight reel athlete with tremendous quickness. There are plenty of capable players for Daniels to learn from as he makes his transition to the college level.
Turnovers are probably the biggest question for this team, but based on his coaching credentials and track record, I expect Larranaga to have the Canes in the top third of the conference and firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
North Carolina
When both Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller opted to return to school, the Heels vaulted to the top of virtually every early Top 25. After all, they bring back virtually every player from a team that made the Elite Eight last season.
Talk of Barnes as a disappointment seems like ancient history after an electrifying finish to his freshman season. Starting in late January, Barnes averaged 19.7 points over the final 18 games of the season, scoring fewer than 16 points just twice during that stretch. Barnes has continued to work on his game this summer, even attending Chris Paul’s camp to improve his ballhandling. He’ll be in the National Player of the Year discussion from day one this season.
Zeller was outstanding in his own right, posting 15.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game while getting to the line at a high rate. He converted on better than 54 percent of his field goal attempts and averaged 25.8 points in UNC’s four tournament games.
I haven’t even mentioned John Henson yet, who averaged a double-double with 11.7 points and 10.1 rebounds and blocked a team-high 3.2 shots. His work on the glass was tremendous, and at one point during the year he grabbed double-digit boards in 15 straight games.
The point guard position is in goods hands as well thanks to Kendall Marshall. His mid-season insertion in the starting lineup sparked the team and led to Larry Drew II’s eventual transfer. Marshall is an adequate three-point shooter but generally doesn’t look for his own shot, instead opting to get teammates involved and setting them up for open looks. A full season of Marshall at the point will be huge given the talent on this roster.
Shooting guard appears to be the only open spot in the starting lineup, but there are a number of options. Leslie McDonald put up 7.0 points in 15.7 minutes while knocking down 38.1 percent from deep, and Reggie Bullock should be back after a season-ending knee injury toward the end of last year. Bullock was a highly regarded recruit, but he struggled to get into a rhythm as a freshman. Dexter Strickland provides additional backcourt depth and should be Marshall’s primary backup at the point.
Oh by the way, the Heels boast a Top 10 recruiting class. The two guys most likely to contribute this season are James Michael McAdoo and P.J. Hairston. McAdoo, the nephew of former NBA player Bob McAdoo, is considered by some to be the most college-ready recruit in this year’s class. He has been touted for his polished fundamentals and is described as an impressive rebounder and shot blocker. With so much interior depth, McAdoo will have the chance to ease his way into things while honing his skills in practice against some of the nation’s best.
Hairston has a chance to start at shooting guard thanks to his deep range and ability to get to the rim. At the very least, he should be a key member of the rotation.
With terrific depth up front, an effective and efficient lead guard in Marshall, and a superstar in Barnes, there’s not much to dislike about this team. Expect them to hover around the number one ranking throughout the season.
North Carolina State
To the surprise of no one, the Wolfpack showed Sidney Lowe the door, although I would argue many fans wanted to see a bigger splash than the one new coach Mark Gottfried provided. I’m not completely sold on the hire either, but there are a few pieces to work with here despite the loss of leading scorer Tracy Smith and the transfer of Ryan Harrow.
It was somewhat surprising to see C.J. Leslie not enter the draft, but another year of college should serve him well. He led the team in rebounds and blocks as a freshman while finishing second with 11.0 points per game. Leslie is an electrifying athlete, but there is room to expand his all-around game and consistency. He’s just too talented to be held to five or fewer points nine times in a season.
The other frontcourt player who seems poised to breakout is Richard Howell. In just over 18 minutes per game last year, Howell posted 7.4 points and 6.5 rebounds. With Smith gone, expect big things from Howell.
In the backcourt, Lorenzo Brown returns after a freshman year that saw him lead the team in steals and assists. His consistency improved in the latter part of the season; he just needs to focus on taking care of the ball. Scott Wood knocked down nearly 42 percent from deep and helps to space the floor, while C.J. Williams provides a veteran presence at guard.
The Wolfpack also added Cal State Bakersfield transfer Alex Johnson, who posted 13.3 points per game last year, and adds to the backcourt depth. DeShawn Painter returns up front to provide additional rebounding off the bench.
Forward Tyler Harris is the freshman most likely to make an impact. He needs to be more of a factor on the glass, but he can hit threes or finish at the rim. Thomas de Thaey, a power forward and native of Belgium, was a late addition to the class. He averaged 15 points and eight rebounds at the Canarias Basketball Academy and will provide additional depth up front.
NC State won 15 games last year, and while there is some talent on the roster, I’m not sure the quality depth is there to make a significant improvement on that total. Outside of Wood, no one else has shown the ability to consistently knock down outside shots, which will make Gottfried’s initial year a challenging one on the offensive end.
Virginia
The Cavaliers are one of the teams I am most interested to watch next year and are definitely under the radar nationally. They won 16 games last year, and they return seven players who played at least 15 minutes per game, six of their to seven scorers, their top five rebounders, and their top two assist men.
Forward Mike Scott received a medical hardship waiver after playing just 10 games last season and returns for a sixth season. He was averaging a double-double prior to undergoing ankle surgery last year and has been a consistent producer throughout his career.
There is no shortage of depth in the backcourt with Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, Sammy Zeglinski, and Jontel Evans all back in the fold. Harris had a solid freshman year, averaging better than 10 points while making 41.7 percent from deep. At 6-foot-6, he brings great size to the position, which allows him to chip in on the glass. Fellow soph K.T. Harrell seemed to wear down toward the end of last season, but an offseason of training should prevent that this year. Zeglinski finished strong, reaching double figures in eight of the final 11 contests, while Evans is the team’s top defender.
Seven-footer Assane Sene provides great size up front and grabbed better than five rebounds per game in 22.5 minutes. If he can add a little more offense to go with his shotblocking and rebounding, it gives UVA another dimension.
Some were surprised when James Johnson redshirted last year, but that should pay dividends this season. He has high upside and adds another big body up front at 6-foot-8. Keep an eye on him this year.
The two true freshmen mostly likely to crack the rotation are Malcolm Brogdon and Paul Jesperson. Brogdon adds another great shooter to Tony Bennett’s stable of guards, and Jesperson adds yet another sniper from the small forward position.
There isn’t a ton of depth inside, but with three guys returning who make better than 38 percent from beyond the arc, that can be offset. Scott’s health is critical, but between Johnson and Sene, there should be just enough down low. The Cavaliers won’t challenge for the ACC Championship, but they look poised to surprise people.
Virginia Tech
We’ve grown accustomed to seeing the Hokies on the bubble, but with a number of key losses, the bubble might be viewed as a success this year. Star guard Malcolm Delaney is gone, as are Jeff Allen and Terrell Bell, which means Seth Greenberg will be looking to replace his top two scorers and rebounders along with his top assist man. The Hokies also don’t return anyone who shot over 35 percent from deep for a team that struggled to make three-pointers last year. Even so, the roster isn’t a complete mess.
Point guard Erick Green returns after scoring at least 10 points in 22 of the final 26 games. Given his free throw shooting, he would be well served to try to draw more fouls at the rim instead of settling for three-pointers. Green also paced the team defensively with nearly two steals per game.
Dorenzo Hudson was limited to just nine games before taking a medical redshirt, so he gives them another double-digit scorer. Small forward J.T. Thompson is also back after missing the season due to a torn ACL. He was solid off the bench in 2009-10, posting 7.3 points and 4.6 boards in around 20 minutes.
Inside play is a huge question mark. Victor Davila has been more of a complementary player over his career, but he has to become more of a consistent offensive threat as a senior. His 57.1 percent field goal shooting is a positive sign, although that number is considerably higher than his free throw percentage. Cadarian Raines is also coming off of a medical redshirt, and Florida transfer Allan Chaney’s future is in doubt after multiple procedures related to a heart ailment. Other returnees include Jarell Eddie on the wing and Tyron Garland at the point.
Va Tech does add a Top 25 recruiting class, which should help ease the blow of the aforementioned departures. Small forward Dorian Finney-Smith is one of the ACC’s top newcomers. He has a wide range of skills and can score in a variety of ways, so look for him to start right away. Robert Brown has been labeled a streaky shooter but plays with good energy and can get to the rim, making him a valuable backcourt backup.
A couple big guys provide much needed dept down low. C.J. Barksdale showed nice versatility on the prep level and will look to further develop his post game while putting on weight. The most recent addition is 21-year old Johan Van Zegeren, a Dutch big man who played at the Canarias Basketball Academy last year.
Even without Delaney, there are enough options on the perimeter and at the small forward spot to help offset that loss. The issues really come inside, where Davila will be asked to shoulder more of the load on offense while helping along a number of inexperienced players.
Wake Forest
Last season was pretty brutal for the Demon Deacons, and while the overall talent level isn’t back to previous levels, there is some reason for optimism in Winston-Salem. They return three of their top four scorers, five of their top six rebounders, and their top three assist men, so at the very least there should be continuity.
Sophomore forward Travis McKie is underrated nationally and led the team with 13.0 points and 7.7 boards as a true freshman. He reached double-digit points in 24 of 32 games, had nine double-digit rebound games, and shot nearly 50 percent from the field. Look for continued growth from McKie as a sophomore.
Like McKie, J.T. Terrell averaged double figures as a freshman, but his production really tailed off in the last half of the year. The talent is there, and an offseason of conditioning can only help. At the point, C.J. Harris led the team in assists, but unfortunately he did the same in the turnover department. Harris is also a capable scorer and excels from the foul line, a place he found himself more than any other Wake player.
Tony Chennault was second on the team in assists per game, so he provides a serviceable backup to Harris at the point. Forward Nikita Mescheriakov played some of his better basketball down the stretch and is in line for more minutes following the transfer of Ari Stewart.
A pair of seven-footers give Wake a large presence inside. Carson Desrosiers played around 20 minutes as a true freshman last season, providing 4.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks. His 39.3 percent shooting leaves a bit to be desired given his size, although he did show some range in knocking down five three-pointers. An offseason in the weight room should help him compete down low and improve upon his averages. Fellow big man Ty Walker posted similar numbers to Desrosiers with a few more blocked shots. The two of them can certainly protect the rim, but one of both need to become more of a threat offensively.
Coach Jeff Bzdelik adds a few new faces to the mix as well. Guard Chase Fischer is a terrific outside shooter, which should earn him a spot in the rotation early on. Daniel Green adds more size down low, and despite the fact that he is a little raw, he does have upside and room to develop.
While there weren’t many wins to show for it, many of the Wake players gained valuable experience last season that should serve them well as the rebuilding process continues for Bzdelik. There are some nice pieces like McKie, Terrell, and Harris, but someone has to step up at power forward and/or center. Regardless, a finish in the upper half of the conference is extremely unlikely.
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About Andy Bottoms
