I have read way too many columns this week that went somewhat like the following:
Miami is the better team, and they will more than likely win the title. They have the two best players in the series, and they can always score during crunch time. However, if Dirk plays really well, and the Mavericks shoot well from three-point range, and Dallas’ big play tough, and JJ Barea has a huge series, and the Heat struggle…Dallas can win.
I hate writers that try to have it both ways. What has “Sports Analyst X” really said in the previous paragraph that the knowledgaeble sports fan doesn’t already know?
Nothing.
To be honest, it’s tough to be a blogger. Half of the blogosphere is full of authors just trying to be controversial and drive traffic. “If I say that Kobe is better than Jordan, people will read it.” Another 30% of writers are just, to be honest, either boring or stupid.
We, at MSF, try our best to be interesting, but informative. The reality is that many people will visit MSF only after they have visited ESPN, FoxSports, and SI. I feel bad for these people, because outside of a few bold writers that offer legitimate insight, they really don’t get to read anything compelling.
I understand that many of you will disagree with what I’m about to write. That’s fine. That’s the best part about sports: having conversations (read: arguments) about what we think is going to happen. But I refuse to be like “Sports Analyst X.”
Here are the two things that Rick Carlisle MUST do and WILL do in order to win the series for Dallas.
Starting in Game 2, the Dallas Mavericks need to and will start Jason Terry or JJ Barea.
There were two reasons why Dallas lost Game 1, and both reasons are clear just by looking at the stats in the box score.
The first stat is that Jason Terry, JJ Barea, and Peja Stojakavic shot 4 of 21 from the field. If you watched the game, you will realize that probably 15 of those shots were uncontested, wide open looks. Some people will chalk it up to nerves. Others will say Dallas was simply unlucky. Either way, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that there is no way the Mavs can win if those three keep shooting that way.
I think it’s part of a larger problem. Believe it or not, Dallas’ starters have had a NEGATIVE +/- during the playoffs. Unless DeShawn Stevenson is a bona fide Dwyane Wade stopper (which clearly, he’s not), there is no reason for him to be stealing minutes from “the underrated three.” If the trend continues, Dallas may end up falling behind at the beginning of the first and third quarters every game, especially considering the Heat are amazing with their starters on the court.
Rick Carlisle knows this. He can’t afford to let his team (who is already fighting from behind in the talent department) actually keep fighting from behind during the game.
Starting Terry or Barea will do a few things:
First, Wade will actually have to play defense. Although Terry/Barea has no chance of stopping Flash, Dallas can always hide them on Bibby and let Kidd (a very underrated defender) d-up D-Wade. And plus,it’s not like Stevenson was much more than a Matador in Game 1. Forcing Wade to chase his man all over the court, fighting through screens on every play, will actually do more to slow him down than any defender ever could.
Secondly, it will spread the floor. When Wade is allowed to play free safety, the Heat are nearly impossible to score on. That’s what happened in the Chicago series. Because the Bulls had no legitimate shooting guard, Wade was able to roam on defense with no implications. He came through with big blocks, steals, deflections, and rebounds. Starting one of these instant offense bench players will take that wrinkle away from the Heat defense.
Third, just think about it logically. Who are the Maverick’s five best players? Better yet, who are their EIGHT best players. Chances are that DeShawn Stevenson doesn’t crack that list. He needs to be shelved for the rest of the series in order to give Dallas the best chance to win.
This brings the logical question, “Why would Carlisle change things up right now?”
Because it’s not unprecedented. Anyone that remembers the Pistons/Pacers bloodbath from 2004 remembers one of the most compelling series in recent memory from a coaching standpoint. In that series, Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle took part in a coaching chess match for the ages.
After splitting the first two games in Indiana, the Pacers lost Game 3 pretty convincingly. The Pacers were on the ropes, and Carlisle pulled something out of left field for Game 4. He called upon Austin Croshere, a player who hadn’t played meaningful playoff minutes since 2000. Croshere’s sweet outside shooting and offensive rebounding were too much for the Wallace Brothers to handle. They couldn’t stay with him out on the floor, and his shooting took one big out from underneath the basket. The Pacers won comfortably to bring it back home.
Unfortunately, the Pacers lost the series because the Pistons were just as flexible. Larry Brown was able to make some adjustments that the Pacers could not counter. Fortunately for Dallas, that’s not the case in this series – and Carlisle knows it. Unlike the Pistons, the Heat don’t have a Plan B. Is their Plan A effective? Extremely. But I don’t think the Heat can respond to this wrinkle. More minutes for Terry and/or Barea means more effort expended on the defensive end for the Heat.
Terry and Barea will play more. They will shoot better. The Mavericks will win Game 2…and the series.
Starting in Game 2, the Dallas Mavericks will outrebound the Heat.
The second most important stat of Game 1, and the reason why the Mavericks lost, was the fact that Miami had ten more offensive rebounds than the Mavericks. This simply can’t happen if the Mavericks hope to win it all.
The series also reminds me of the Pacers-Bulls series in 1998. The Pacers were bigger, stronger, and taller. Unfortunately, they weren’t tougher. Unbelievably, the undersized Bulls kept crashing the boards and ended up outrebounding the Mammoth Pacers led by Rik Smits and the Davis Brothers. Jordan and Pippen willed the Bulls to victory.
LeBron and Wade could definitely end up doing the same thing for the Heat in this series, but they won’t. Tyson Chandler and Brendan Hayward won’t let it happen. I expect them both to lay a some wood early and often tonight. Chandler got out-toughed in Game 1; it won’t happen again.
At the end of the day, Miami and Dallas are both good teams. Miami has three of the four best players in the series, and they have been executing extremely well the past two months. However, the Heat have one weakness: they don’t have a Plan B.
Rick Carlisle, the best coach from this year’s playoffs, knows this. He’s a smart man, and he knows that something drastic needs to happen.
Starting Terry wins the battle. Becoming tougher wins the war.
Dallas in 6. That’s the only way I see it.
About Jon Washburn
