Which active players are locks for the Basketball Hall of Fame?

When the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame announced its 2011 class a couple weeks ago, ESPN’s John Hollinger tweeted, “I give up. Congrats if you got in and all, but I’m not sure we’d do much worse just picking random names out of a hat.”

The 2011 Naismith inductees comprise one of the most underwhelming Hall of Fame classes in any major sport, ever.

Chris Mullin and Dennis Rodman were good players but, if this were baseball or football, they wouldn’t be Hall of Famers (at least not without a decade of pleading, lobbying, and complaining, à la Bert Blyleven and Harry Carson). And if Satch Sanders is a Hall of Famer, we might as well induct every player who wore a Celtics uniform in the 1960s. (Maybe we should. They won a lot of titles.)

(A quick note to those puzzled by Arvydas Sabonis’s inclusion: Sabonis played 14 years in Europe before playing in the NBA. During that time he was named the European Player of the Year four times. He’s deserving.)

But I’m not interested in debating the merits of this year’s class, at least not any more than I’ve done already. Now that the Playoffs are underway and everyone’s paying attention to the NBA, I’d like to pose this question: Which active players, if their career were to end tomorrow, would be deserving of election to the Basketball Hall of Fame?

The “if their career were to end tomorrow” is important. I would guess that Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose will one day be in the Hall of Fame. But if either of them fell down the stairs of a Manhattan disco next week, irreparably damaged his knee, and never played again, he probably wouldn’t be elected.

I’ve come up with a list of thirteen players who are Hall-of-Fame ready right now, and I’ve listed them alphabetically by last name. Let me know if I’ve missed anyone or if you disagree with any of players I’ve included.

Keep in mind that the Basketball Hall of Fame is not an NBA Hall of Fame. The Naismith Hall recognizes accomplishments at all levels of the game. So a player’s achievements in college, the Olympics, and/or a Spanish or Turkish league are relevant to this conversation.

(I love that the Naismith Hall of Fame celebrates basketball in all its manifestations, but I would also like to see the NBA open its own hall of fame. Bill Simmons suggests making it a pyramid and putting it in French Lick. Sounds good to me.)

Here’s the list:

Ray Allen
1 ring, 10-time All Star, one Olympic Gold Medal, all-time record for three-point shots made

If I consider it an injustice that Reggie Miller wasn’t even a Hall of Fame finalist in his first year of eligibility, then it follows that Allen—who has one more ring and five more All Star appearances than Miller and who broke Miller’s record for three pointers—is also deserving.

kobe-bryant-tim-duncanKobe Bryant
5 rings, one MVP, two Finals MVPs, 13-time All Star, 8-time All-NBA First Team, 8-time All-Defensive First Team, one Olympic Gold Medal, #6 all time in points scored

Tim Duncan
4 rings, two MVPs, three Finals MVPs, 13-time All Star, 9-time All-NBA First Team, 8-time All-Defensive First Team, 1997 Naismith College Player of the Year, 2-time consensus NCAA All American

My original plan was to rank everyone on this list from most obvious to most questionable. I abandoned that plan when I couldn’t figure out whether Duncan or Bryant should be first.

  • Kobe has one more title, but Duncan has the edge in MVP and Finals MVP awards.
  • Kobe has an Olympic Gold Medal; Duncan was Naismith Player of the Year in college.
  • One could argue that Kobe is the second best shooting guard in NBA history; one could argue that Duncan is the greatest power forward ever.
  • Kobe ranks sixth all time in points scored. Duncan’s Spurs have never finished worse than second in their division and—excepting the lockout-shortened 1999 season—have never won fewer than 50 games.

At any rate, both players are all-time greats and obvious first-ballot inductees.

Kevin Garnett
1 ring, 2004 MVP, 2008 Defensive Player of the Year, 14-time All Star, 4-time All-NBA First Team, 8-time All-Defensive First Team

Before his move to Boston, the Big Ticket was as well known for his inability to get out of the first round of the Playoffs as for being the 2004 MVP and one of the league’s best defensive big men. But Garnett deserves credit for turning the T-Wolves (who hadn’t won more than 29 games before drafting Garnett) into a perennial Playoff team. KG also started the trend of players entering the NBA Draft out of high school. So we can thank him for Kobe Bryant, Amar’e Stoudemire, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard (and Korleone Young, Kwame Brown, and Robert Swift). That counts for something.

Lauren Jackson
3-time WNBA MVP, 3-time WNBL (Australia) MVP, 2007 Women’s Korea Basketball League MVP, 2007 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year, 2010 WNBA Finals MVP, 2 WNBA titles, 4 WNBL titles

That’s right, Lauren Jackson.

The Basketball Hall of Fame knows no gender, and Jackson is an all-time great in the women’s game. She has won 7 MVP awards in three major leagues on three continents. The 2010 Seattle Storm, led by Jackson and Sue Bird, was the greatest team in WNBA history, going 28-6 and sweeping their opponents in each round of the Playoffs (and giving bitter Seattle basketball fans something to be happy about). The only thing missing from Jackson’s résumé is an Olympic Gold Medal. Her Australian team has thrice won silver, each time losing to the Americans in the finals.

LeBron James
2-time MVP, 4-time All-NBA First Team, 2-time All-Defensive First Team, one Olympic Gold Medal, 2003 Naismith Prep Player of the Year

Every former NBA MVP who is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in the Hall of Fame. LeBron has been MVP twice. That’s twice more than most of the players in the Hall.

The knock against LBJ, if his career were to end tomorrow, would be that he has only played eight seasons. It’s hard to find NBA players in Springfield who played eight or fewer seasons. Neil Johnston played eight seasons with the Philadelphia Warriors in the 1950s. Bill Walton played ten seasons, but all ten were shortened by injuries. (LeBron has already played 159 more regular season games than Walton did in his entire career.) David Thompson only played nine seasons (one in the ABA), his career cut short by cocaine and a tumble down the stairs at Studio 54. Johnston and Walton have a championship ring apiece; Walton and Thompson had all-time-great college careers; Johnston had to wait for the veterans committee to vote him in, 31 years after his retirement (and 12 years after his death).

Still, no history of basketball is complete without LeBron James. The hype surrounding LBJ when he came out of high school was unprecedented, and he has met or exceeded expectations. He also already has more career points than Kevin McHale, James Worthy, Tiny Archibald, and Pete Maravich. (And all of those players played more than eight seasons.)

Jason Kidd
10-time All Star, 5-time All-NBA First Team, 4-Time All-Defensive First Team, 2 Olympic Gold Medals, consensus NCAA All American, 1992 Naismith Prep Player of the Year, #2 all time in assists

Prior to Steve Nash’s second act in Phoenix and the ascent of Chris Paul and Deron Williams (and more recently Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose), there were several years when Kidd was, without question, the best point guard in the game. He also single-handedly made the New Jersey Nets a relevant franchise for a five-year span. That’s not an easy feat.

Steve Nash
2-time MVP, 7-time All Star, 3-time All NBA First Team, #6 all time in assists

After more than a decade as one of the NBA’s elite point guards, I think Steve Nash has earned a place in Springfield, even if he doesn’t play defense. The two MVPs (and the hair) are the clincher.

dirk-nowitzkiDirk Nowitzki
2007 MVP, 10-time All Star, 4-time All-NBA First Team

Dirk Nowitzki has been the best player on a team that has won 50 or more games for 11 consecutive seasons, and he continues to play at a high level. With apologies to the late, great Dražen Petrović, Dirk is the best European player ever, and that counts for a lot, even if he never wins a title for Mark Cuban.

Shaquille O’Neal
4 rings, 2000 MVP, 3-time Finals MVP, 15-time All Star, 8-time All-NBA First Team, Olympic Gold Medal, 2-time consensus NCAA First-Team All American, #5 all time in scoring

“If his career ended tomorrow”: It’s a hypothetical situation for the rest of the players on this list, but a real possibility for Shaq. The Big [fill in the blank] has had such a long career, and is so many years past his prime, that it’s easy to forget just how great he was at his peak. Few players have ever dominated the league the way Shaq did in 1999-2000. He also has put together impressive career numbers, ranking #6 all time in scoring and #12 all time in rebounding.

Paul Pierce
1 ring, 2008 Finals MVP, 9-time All Star, 1998 consensus NCAA First-Team All American

Even before he united with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to win a title in Boston, Pierce had quietly put together a nice career. He was a perennial All Star who was often among the league’s leaders in scoring. But he wasn’t a Hall of Famer. He was Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo Anthony isn’t on this list. Leading the Celtics to a title put Pierce over the top. Since 2008, Pierce has transitioned nicely into one of the Association’s elder statesmen.

Diana Taurasi
2009 WNBA MVP, 6-time All-WNBA First Team, 2009 WNBA Finals MVP, 2004 WNBA Rookie of the Year, 2 Olympic Gold Medals, 2-time Naismith College Player of the Year, 4 NCAA Championships, 4 EuroLeague Women championships, 1 Turkish Championship

Now that we know for sure that the doping allegations against Taurasi were bogus, she is safely on this list.

Taurasi has had a shorter professional career than anyone else on this list, but she’s made the most of it. Taurasi is a top-five all-time college player who led UConn to three consecutive NCAA championships, she has been named to the All-WNBA First Team in six of her seven seasons in the league, almost all of her overseas teams have won major championships, and she has been a key player on two Gold Medal Olympic Teams. That’s enough “winning” to make Charlie Sheen jealous.

Dwyane Wade
1 ring, 2006 Finals MVP, 7-time All Star, 2-time All-NBA First Team, Olympic Gold Medal, 2003 AP NCAA First-Team All American

Like his teammate (no, not that teammate), Wade has played only eight seasons. Unlike his teammate, Wade has a ring. The manner in which he earned that ring earns him my hypothetical Hall of Fame vote. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player take over a series like Wade took over the 2006 Finals. (Danny Crawford may have helped him out in Game 3, but whatever.)

Regardless of how the rest of his career plays out, Wade will go down as one of his generation’s best players (“his generation” being the generation of players drafted between the lockouts), as he is a more complete player than almost all of his peers.

What do you think?

Which of Josh's choices do you agree would be Hall of Famers if their careers ended today? (Choose all that apply)

View Results

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That’s the list.

You could make a case for Pau Gasol, who has been remarkably consistent in his ten years in the NBA. In addition to the two rings he’s won with the Lakers, Gasol won a Liga ACB title and a Spanish King’s Cup with FC Barcelona Bàsquet in 2001. Gasol is close, but I think he’s a year or two (or one more ring) away.

Grant Hill is another player you could argue for, especially because he was such a great college player. (He’s one of only 473 players to have his number retired at Duke.) Despite the injuries that kept him from reaching his potential as a pro, Hill has put together a long and respectable NBA career.

I gave passing consideration to Chauncey Billups, but I think he’s stuck in the “very good but not great” category.

In the women’s game, Sue Bird and Tamika Catchings are on the cusp. Bird has a Naismith College Player of the Year Award and two Olympic Gold Medals to go with a very good pro career. Catchings also has the two Gold Medals, along with four WNBA Defensive Player of the Year Awards.

Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Dwight Howard? Check back in a couple years.

And I’m not sure what to do with Vince Carter. He has scored more than 20,000 points, with a career average of 22 per game, and he has made 8 All Star appearances. He also had a few really good years at North Carolina. That’s a nice résumé, but Vince Carter just doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. Sorry.

**********

Update: The comments have pointed out a glaring omission from this list. So here’s player #14:

Manu Ginóbili
3 NBA rings, 2-time Lega A (Italy) MVP, Olympic Gold Medal

Although he was a key player on three championship Spurs teams, Manu’s NBA achievements alone aren’t enough to get him in the Hall of Fame. But before coming to the states, Manu had an impressive stint in Italy, twice winning the Lega A MVP. (Lega A is the top basketball league in Italy.) In 2004 he led Argentina to an Olympic Gold Medal, making Argentina only the fourth nation to win basketball gold at the Summer Games (and the first from South America). At the very least, Manu is the greatest South American basketball player of all time (sorry, Nene), and he deserves to represent his continent in Springfield.

**********

Josh Tinley is the author of Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports. Follow him at twitter.com/joshtinley.

* – Kobe Bryant / Tim Duncan photo credit: Harry How/Getty Images North America via Zimbio.com



About Josh Tinley

Josh Tinley writes the Away From The Action column at Midwest Sports Fans, covering all aspects of sport aside from what actually happens on the field, court, or track. Josh grew up in Indianapolis and graduated from the University of Evansville and Vanderbilt Divinity School. He is the author of Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports and the managing editor of LinC, a weekly curriculum for teens that explores the intersection of faith and culture. Josh lives outside Nashville with his wife, Ashlee, and children, Meyer (7), Resha Kate (5), and Malachi (3). He will not allow himself to die before the Evansville Purple Aces make another trip to the NCAA Tournament. Follow him on Twitter @joshtinley or send him an e-mail.

Comments

  1. When you look at how the HOF has historically treated international accomplishments – Manu Ginboili is nothing short of a lock.

  2. Buddy Ochoa says:

    Manu Ginobili is the best international player in the world and has the rings and awards to prove it…he is definitely a lock for the Hall of Fame…

  3. KG is a nice player, but no HOF'er. He compares favorably to Hoarce Grant, a really good player on championship teams but not "the man" on the teams. No way he or Pierce deserve it, they are not special players. Neither of them changed the way the game is played or truly excelled, they are just really good. The HOF is for great, not really good.

    • Never changed the game? How long have you been watching the NBA? KG was one of the first to come to the NBA out of highschool when it was not possible for players to compete in the NBA. He started the new wave of highschool jumpers into the NBA. Learn your history bro

  4. Awesome read bro. Agree on each player.

  5. I'm giving Manu a lot of credit for being the best ever player from an entire continent and for the attention he's brought to the sport in Argentina.

    But you make a good point. He was only All-NBA once, and he was no better than the third best player on any of those championship teams (though I would argue that he's the Spurs' best player right now). I probably should have stuck with my original list and left everything else up for debate.

    • I see what you're saying, but if you think about it he's the best basketball player from a continent where basketball is not highly represented, and where all of their best athletes play soccer. By that logic you would have to let Yao Ming in, he's the best player ever from the most populated continent on the planet and where basketball is much more popular (To be fair I do think Yao would be a lock if he could continue his previous production).

      Overall though, I think this is a really well done and insightful article, you shouldn't listen to critics (including myself). You had it right the first time.

  6. Maun also won an Olympic bronze medal. might not be a whole lot to americans who compete for gold each time they step out for the red white and blue, but to the rest of the world, that means a whole LOT. remember yuh lose the silver but yuh gottah BEAT SOMEBODY to win that bronze eh?
    as for the rings, maun was a key component in that winning combination. would you call paxton a HOFer? no. but ask MJ if he wouldah won anything widout that lil white boy to pull up them corner J's… ask Isiah thomas about another guy named vinnie johnson.
    manu played a WAY GREATER part in the spurs though. and he aint done yet.

  7. Great post here.
    Good way to start a debate of who is deserving.
    All we can do is wait and see what the end result is.

  8. Fun article. But a couple minor corrections. Walton won 2 rings–not one (Portland, 1977 and Boston, 1986). And while his career was CERTAINLY injury-riddled, he did have one year where he played ALL 82 games (1986, in Boston, when he won 6th man of the year). Also, as you say, college years count for the HOF, as well, and Walton could be a HOF player on his UCLA career alone.

  9. I dont get the Dwayne Wade addition.  He’s a shooting guard who cant shoot.  He has an awful release, and shoots FREE throws at a 73% clip.  Shaq shot 50%, but he also had the rebounding, scoring, blocking, DOMINATING to go with it.  Wade has the jumping, but if jumping can get you into the Hall of Fame, let’s go ahead and include Gerald Green, because he is Wade’s height and his head can touch the rim.  If Im a coach, I’m more scared of Manu than I am of Wade, especially now that he plays with Lebron (please note Wade’s numbers since teaming with Lebron, they are worse than Kobe’s when he was with Shaq).

  10. Dirk is a queer, he should’ve been an actor for his tremendous faking on drawing fouls.

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