As someone who has picked Butler in every single game of the entire tournament, what I’m about to write might not surprise you.
Regardless, don’t gloss over this fact: my heart wants to pick Butler…but so does my head.
Now, I understand that Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps, Dick Vitale, and Hubert Davis all picked UConn. In fact, the only person I have heard pick Butler is Doug Gottlieb…not exactly the person you want endorsing your team.
However, I have heard various forms of the same argument come out of every talking head’s mouth: “Kemba Walker is a winner, and he won’t let UConn lose.”
With all due respect to the Kemba, (believe me, I love watching the Revolutionary Iverson ball it up every night) that statement is a slap in the face to guys like Matt Howard, Ronald Nored, Shawn Vanzant, and Shelvin Mack.
I listened calmly as Jay Bilas told Mike and Mike on the radio this morning that “Butler would have a hard time stopping UConn’s fast break, and that would probably be the difference in the game.”
Apparently, research and facts are useless and irrelevant if you work for the World Wide Leader. Someone should tell Jay that Butler just held one of the best fast breaking teams in the country, VCU, to ZERO fast break points on Saturday night.
But that’s ok. Butler has made a living off of proving the doubters wrong. The 2011 NCAA Championship Game will be no different.
So let’s get to the actual game. First, all of the basic viewing info, and then I present to you three very legitimate reasons why Butler will beat UConn tonight; and none of them have anything to do with Nate Miles.
- Butler-UConn Date: Monday, April 4th
- Butler-UConn Tip Time: 9:18 ET
- Butler-UConn TV: CBS
- Butler-UConn Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Steve Kerr
- Butler-UConn Point Spread: Connecticut -3.5
- Butler-UConn Over-Under: 129
- MSF: Butler-Connecticut Statistical Analysis and Reader Poll
Butler’s role players will outplay UConn’s.
Everyone wants to talk about the stars going into this game. Kemba Walker. Shelvin Mack. Matt Howard. Jeremy Lamb.
It’s understandable. The fact of the matter is that, in basketball, star players sell tickets. They are the biggest selling point. They are who we enjoy cheering for the most.
Furthermore, it’s easy to do. If you have only been watching Butler or UConn play over the past four weeks, it would be easy to come to the false conclusion that both teams go as their stars go.
This is particularly true with Butler. For instance, when I previewed the Butler/Wisconsin game, some Wisconsin fan wrote in and said that Wisconsin was going to crush Butler because Butler relied too heavily on Shelvin Mack. I believe the exact quote was, “Wisconsin has great role players besides Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer. I don’t think Butler can win without Shelvin Mack scoring 30 points.”
Well, obviously this was based on one game (Pittsburgh) and no factual research. As good as Mack has played this tournament, most of you would be surprised that he scored 30 a grand total of ONE time this season before the Tournament.
UConn, on the other hand, quite frankly DOES rely on Kemba Walker.
It’s no coincidence that UConn started off and finished the season on a roll, when Kemba Walker was playing his best basketball. But he actually struggled so much during Big East play that some tool named Ben Hansbrough won the Big East Player of the Year.
If Kemba has a bad game, UConn will be in trouble.
Zach Hahn, Shawn Vanzant, Ronald Nored, and Khyle Marshall all play on the other side. As many big shots as Mack and Howard have hit this post season, Butler would not be here without Marshall’s offensive rebounding, Nored’s stellar defense, Hahn’s clutch shooting, and Vanzant’s ability to create his own shot when Mack is off the floor.
I don’t mean to say that Oriakhi, Roscoe Smith, and Shabazz Napier are bad players, but if the Mack/Howard end up matching Walker/Lamb, the edge goes to Butler, and it’s really not that close.
The single best unit on the floor Monday night will be the Butler defense.
Now you might be thinking, “OK I agree. Butler’s collective TEAM is better, but Kemba Walker is just TOO good.” To be honest, this isn’t necessarily a bad argument. Again, I love watching the kid play, and in my opinion, he should be the NCAA Player of the Year.
But Ashton Gibbs is an outstanding player. So are Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor. So are Chandler Parsons, Erving Walker, and Kenny Boynton. Go ahead and look up their collective stats against the Bulldogs the past two weeks. The results are staggering.
The fact is, if Butler DOES have a weakness, it’s teams that can pound them inside. That’s what Florida tried to do. That’s how Jamie Skeen scored 27 on Saturday night. But even in those games, Butler ended up shutting everybody else down.
Butler has held the opposing team under 60 in all but two games the past two Marches. Duke scored 61, and won by two. VCU scored 62, but only got to that mark in garbage time when Butler was up by double digits.
If you want to throw your eggs into Kemba’s basket, that’s fine. But in my opinion, the best unit on the floor Monday night will not be UConn’s offense, it will be Butler’s defense.
Again, Walker struggled for only 18 points against Kentucky, as his team failed to break 60 on the scoreboard. His team wouldn’t even have won had Kentucky shot just 50% from the Foul Line. The guy IS human. I’ll take Butler’s five over him every day of the week.
Butler is just flat out good.
In five years, I have a feeling that we will look back on this Butler team a little differently than we do today.
In 2001, an upstart football team won a controversial game at home in the snow because of a little-known rule that ended up going in their favor. Their young, inexperienced QB then beat the powerful Steelers in the AFC Championship game on their way to play the Greatest Show on Turf in the Super Bowl.
In the upset of the century, the Patriots actually pulled off the W as time expired. Almost immediately, everyone dismissed the game as a fluke. The Rams lost it…the Patriots didn’t win it, or so the arguments went.
Of course, ten years later, we look back at that Super Bowl differently.
Now, we have the luxury of realizing that the Patriots were led by a revolutionary coach who changed the way defense was played. We can now see that Tom Brady wasn’t just lucky to be playing for the injured Drew Bledsoe; actually, he’s one of the greatest QBs of all time.
This year’s Butler Bulldogs are the 2001 New England Patriots.
The fact is, they are led by a revolutionary coach who is also changing the way defense is played. Not only that, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack are better than anyone realizes.
Matt Howard could absolutely be Glen Davis 2.0 at the next level. Go ahead and laugh, but watch some smart team like the Spurs pick him up next season. I have a feeling we will see Howard become a slightly under-sized Power Forward at the next level who plays below the rim thriving on hustle plays and sweet shooting.
Which brings us to Shelvin Mack. Go no further than Coach K who, when asked about the Butler junior, had this to say: “Shelvin was easily one of the five best players at our Select Camp last summer.” Anyone who thinks Mack is just the go-to guy on a team with less talented players is mistaken. Don’t be surprised when he has a Jason Terry-type career at the next level as a great scoring third guard.
The sports world is always slow to catch on to things. Less than ten years ago, a team actually went UNDEFEATED in the SEC during college football and didn’t even play in the BCS Championship game. Why? Because we all thought that the Big Ten and USC were as good as it got. Of course this could never happen today because ESPN and everybody else worships the SEC. They caught on, but it took them a while.
In five years, we will all look back on tonight’s game and realize, Wow. Not only was Butler a good team, but they were the BEST team. They deserved to win the title.
As it is now, I will settle with being the odd-man out. I’ll be the “homer that picked Butler just because he’s a native Hoosier.”
That’s fine. I’ll be the one laughing tomorrow morning.
- Butler-Connecticut Prediction: Butler 63 – UConn 57.
- Butler-Connecticut Spread Pick – Butler +3.5
- Butler-Connecticut Over-Under Pick: Under
What do you think?
Who do you think will win the National Championship game between Butler and Connecticut? Total Voters: 667
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About Jon Washburn
