The Sweet 16 kicks off tonight with much anticipated matchups Butler v Wisconsin, BYU v Florida, and Duke v Arizona. The fourth matchup, which will actually be the first one to tip off, seems to be flying under the radar, but it has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the bunch.
Jim Calhoun and his Big East Tournament champion Huskies take on Steve Fisher and his #2 seeded San Diego State Aztecs. There will be plenty of athleticism to go around in this one, plus two guys with very bright futures at the next level: Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard.
Sweet 16: Connecticut v San Diego State
- Date: Thursday, March 24th
- Time: 7:15 ET
- TV: CBS
- Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
- Location and Arena: Anaheim, CA at The Honda Center
- Point Spread: Pick ‘em
- Over-Under: 128.5
Statistical breakdown via ESPN Bracket Predictor:
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Connecticut-San Diego State Analysis and Prediction
I underestimated Connecticut coming into this tournament. They were just 9-9 in the Big East during the regular season, and I was not sure that their sterling performance in the Big East tournament was anything more than just a hot week. And, truth be told, I’m still not sure exactly what Connecticut is after following that great 5-day run up with wins over Bucknell and Cincinnati.
Here is what I do know about Connecticut: Kemba Walker is outstanding. He can get his shot almost anytime he wants it, and his presence – and the defensive attention he demands – frees up other people on the floor. The Huskies score 1.07 points per possession, which is a solid number, in large part because of their catalyst.
For San Diego State, it’s all about defense. The Aztecs were one of the best defensive teams in the country this year, holding opponents to fewer than .9 points per possession and to an outstanding effective field goal percentage of 43.8%. Now, obviously they did not play a schedule as tough as UCONN’s, but the schedule SDSU played is not as light as you might think. They beat fellow Sweet 16 team BYU multiple times, and the Mountain West Conference is much better than people give it credit for.
I will readily admit that I have not watched these two teams play much. I caught some of Connecticut in the Big East Tournament and I watched San Diego State play Temple. When you look at their body of work this season, it is hard to know just how representative, if at all, those games were of who these two teams are. So I don’t feel comfortable writing out a long, wordy analysis because, well, I just do not have that much to say.
But here is what I know. When I look to make a pick between two teams I don’t know much about, I usually look at the following criteria:
- Who is better on defense? San Diego State.
- Who has the best player? Connecticut.
- Who has the best coach? Toss up. Jim Calhoun is outstanding, but don’t discount Steve Fisher’s ability to get his team playing loosely and confidently come tourney time. Remember, he’s coached in three national championship games.
Well crap. It comes out at 1-1-1, which really doesn’t help me pick!
I guess for me this game comes down to gut feel. When I originally did my bracket predictions, I had San Diego State in the Final 4. I would revise that now, with Kyrie Irving back for Duke, but I still think the Aztecs are underrated and have what it takes to get to Houston. Connecticut is definitely on a roll, but I think San Diego State will present a better, more athletic defense than I’ve seen in a while – yes, even considering the Big East Tournament.
This one will definitely be a close one, and a UCONN victory would not shock me in the least, but I’m sticking with Steve Fisher and the Aztecs.
- San Diego State-UCONN Prediction: San Diego State 65 – UCONN 62
- San Diego State-UCONN Spread Pick: San Diego State (pick ‘em)
- San Diego State-UCONN Over-Under: Under
About Jerod Morris
