The national consensus seems to be that the Ohio State-Kentucky matchup at 9:45 ET on Friday night is the most intriguing game of the Sweet 16. But the East Region appetizer that comes before OSU-UK isn’t bad itself.
The #2 seed North Carolina faces one of the two remaining Big East teams, #11 seed Marquette. The Tar Heels are the favorite, but in this preview I’ll explain why there is legitimacy to the growing buzz that Marquette could pull off another upset.
Sweet 16: North Carolina v Marquette Game Info
- Date: Friday, March 25th
- Tip Time: 7:15 ET
- Arena and Location: The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
- TV: CBS
- Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
- Point Spread: North Carolina -4.5
- Over-Under: 150
North Carolina and Marquette: How They Got Here
The North Carolina Tar Heels have done a great job of improving during the season this year, taking a talented but young team that struggled in non-conference play and winning the ACC’s regular season outright. Roy Williams learned from adversity last year and did a better job of coaxing growth out of this year’s squad that he was able to do with last year’s mess.
UNC has improved due to a number of factors. As Dennis Green would appreciate, it turns out that Harrison Barnes was who we thought he was, not the player who struggled out of the gate.
In addition, Kendall Marshall is going to be an absolutely elite point guard at the college level. His vision is exemplary, his mistakes few. His 24 assists while only turning the ball over six times during the first two tournament games are simply phenomenal, especially for a Freshman.
Finally, the Heels are an absolute load down low, with John Henson and Tyler Zeller providing a potent if not imposing 1-2 punch down low.
You could see this improvement coming from mid-season onwards, as I noted in my January 27th post regarding the ACC:
(Other than Duke), North Carolina is the most likely candidate to get to the Sweet 16 or beyond. They have loads of talent, and with Kendall Marshall supplanting Larry Drew II at the point guard spot (which was long overdue), they can get the consistency they need to be a winning team. If they can figure out ways to open up Harrison Barnes and get him producing up to his talent level, this team can be nasty by March.
Marquette, on the other hand, is an under the radar team that embodies the personality of its previously underrated coach Buzz Williams. The man who replaced Tom Crean and kept this program moving on without missing a beat has a tremendous will to win. His team embodies this spirit and almost always finds a way to compete.
Despite being 11th in the Big East pecking order, this team backed down from nobody. They may not have the talent of some teams, but they take a backseat to no one in terms of heart.
While UNC boasts two future lottery picks (Barnes, Henson) and two others that should have long NBA careers in Marshall and Zeller, Marquette doesn’t have a single player that is a favorite to play in the league. What they do have is a bunch of solid college players who, because of their coach, play together to make a sum that is greater than its parts. Of those parts, the best of the bunch is Jimmy Butler, a senior leader who averages 16 points and six rebounds a night, and also does the intangibles to help his team get over the hump.
So, North Carolina is the higher rated team with more pure talent. Of course, the last time these two teams met in the NCAA tournament, UNC was also ranked higher and boasted the higher profile players. If you are old like me, you may remember it as Al McGuire’s last game, as the Warriors (that was PC back then) beat UNC 67-59 to win the 1977 National Championship behind Butch Lee, Jerome Whitehead and Bo Ellis. Walter Davis, Phil Ford and Mike O’Koren would never win a title while Dean Smith had to wait five more years until Fred Brown had a brain fart to win his first.
But back to 2011…
North Carolina-Marquette Statistical Analysis and Prediction
Here is a statistical breakdown of the two teams, via the ESPN Bracket Predictor.
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Surprisingly for a Roy Williams coached team, UNC is actually stronger defensively than they are with the ball. Of course, those numbers are misleading since they played the first half of the season without Kendall Marshall. His vision and passing skills take the Tar Heel offense to another dimension.
These teams’ strengths match up against each other. Marquette is a solid offensive team, scoring well overall and in points per possessions. On the flip side, UNC defends well, allowing the 22nd least points per possession.
The Tar Heel advantage really comes when they possess the ball. They have been a decent offensive team throughout the season, while Marquette has been average at best defensively (only ranked #133 in points per possession). The advantage here is magnified by the fact that the Tar Heels hit the offensive glass hard, while the Warriors, errr, Golden Eagles, do a poor job of owning the defensive glass. This gives a huge opportunity to the long Henson and his counterpart Zeller to create second chance points.
In order to compensate for this weakness, Marquette will have to pressure the ball defensively and force turnovers. UNC does an OK but not spectacular job of taking care of the basketball, and this is the area Marquette will need to exploit to offset their disadvantage defensively and on the glass.
It seems as though the majority of Marquette games are extremely close and hard fought and this team is used to being in difficult situations. Under the bright lights of the Sweet 16, their veteran squad who is used to the wars is more likely to stay composed than a young UNC squad who is probably already thinking about how to beat Ohio State.
Pace is another key to this game. UNC loves to create pace, and run up and down the court. Marquette on the other hand is happy to play a bit more deliberately. While they want to convert on the easy opportunities they can create via the turnover as discussed above, the Hilltoppers turned Warriors turned Golden Eagles will want to frustrate UNC by making the Heels play more slowly than they feel comfortable doing.
North Carolina has the better talent. They have the Hall of Fame Coach. They have the statistics that favor them. But Marquette has cohesion, they play as a superior team, and this team is not going to make it easy for the Baby Blues to have their way. All logic says that the Tar Heels will prevail and that they will advance to the Elite 8, but I have a feeling Marquette is going to win the battle of pace, frustrating the Tar Heels and ultimately pulling off the upset.
- North Carolina-Marquette Prediction: Marquette 73, North Carolina 71
- North Carolina-Marquette Spread Pick: Marquette +4.5
- North Carolina-Marquette Over-Under: Under
