MLB 2011 Prediction: NL West – Defending champs are the favorites; will any contenders emerge?

As Spring Training winds down in Arizona and Florida, we are going division-by-division previewing the 2011 Major League Baseball season. Previously, we discussed the NL East and whether the Phillies can live up to enormous preseason expectations.

In this post I will talk about the National League West, home of the 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants.

We’ll be running through the rest of the National League and then the American League Divisions over the next week. I will give predictions and reasons to validate them, finishing with whom I think will make it to the World Series in 2011, and win it all.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants surprised a lot of people last year, myself included. But listening to what they had to say after they won it all, nobody in that clubhouse doubted they could do it. San Francisco is bringing back almost everyone from last year and will make another run. Their biggest loss was Edgar Renteria, but the signing of Miguel Tejada could make them better.

2011-mlb-predictions-nl-west-tim-lincecum-brian-wilsonThe Giants have good pitching: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez filling the top of the rotation, Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito filling the four and five spot. The closer will be Brian Wilson, who looks like he hasn’t touched his beard, with the set up duties going to Jeremy Affeldt. They have an up and coming star, behind the plate in Buster Posey, and are good enough defensively and have the players to produce well offensively with Aubrey Huff, Tejada, Posey, Pat Burrell, Pablo Sandoval and Cody Ross in the middle of their line-up. Freddy Sanchez will start at second base, Mark DeRosa will start in left field, and Andres Torres will play center and bat leadoff.

Aaron Rowand should make the team as the fourth outfielder while Mike Fontenot is the utility infielder, and Eli Whiteside will be the backup catcher.

The mix of veterans and younger players looks good as well. Manager Bruce Bochy will have this team ready to go, and they will play with the same determination they did last season.

Prediction: I look for the Giants to win 90-95 games, enough to win the division.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres finished the 2010 season two games behind the Giants, but the one game they were behind in the wild card race was harder to take. Looking at the roster, it looks like the ownership is giving up. The Padres seem to be rebuilding, bringing over Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson, while signing Jorge Cantu and Brad Hawpe. They lost their best player, Adrian Gonzalez, to the Boston Red Sox. The Padres have some nice players in Ryan Ludwick, Chase Headley, Wil Venable, Nick Hundley and Cameron Maybin, but a run at the playoffs is unlikely. There just isn’t enough offensive fire power.

Mat Latos heads the rotation with Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Aaron Harang, and either Dustin Mosely or Cory Luebke finishing out two through five. Heath Bell will be the team’s closer, if they can get to the ninth with a lead. Left handed specialist Joe Thatcher will be an important arm in the bullpen.

Prediction: Bud Black, the 2010 NL Manager of the year, will have a tough time of it this year, and winning 70 games will be good for the Fathers in 2011.

Colorado Rockies

After getting into the playoffs in 2009, the Colorado Rockies had a disappointing third place finish in the NL West in 2010. Barring any major injuries, this 2011 Rockies team could make a run at the wild card. If the main group of starters, like Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Lopez can stay healthy, the offense should be able to average between five and six runs a game.

Catcher Chris Iannetta also will play an important part, as he is going to be the main starter with Miguel Olivo leaving via free agency. Eric Young will get some looks at second base and in the outfield, as he possesses the ability to steal bases. If Lopez has trouble at second, Young would take over there. Ty Wigginton will be the utility infielder and could see a lot of playing time.

Prediction: With the pitching the Rockies have (Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa, and Aaron Cook (currently on DL)), as the top three starters, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel getting spots four and five), they could win 90 to 95 games this year. That would put them in a race for first in the NL West with the Giants, and right in the thick of the wild card race.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers had a bad year in 2010, with injuries and clubhouse distractions being the main reasons why. The Dodgers appear to be ready to make a push for the division, but again, can they stay healthy as, aside from perhaps Matt Kemp, the distractions seem to be cleared up with the departure of Manny Ramirez.

The starting rotation looks strong, but can Chad Billingsley get better, and can Ted Lilly get back the form he had with the Cubs. If Vicente Padilla (forearm surgery) can get healthy, he could be a fifth starter, while Jon Garland (oblique strain) could start the season on the DL. The Dodgers may not need a fifth starter until the start of May, so they have stated they’ll stay in house for a replacement.

Free Agent catcher Dioner Navarro, who started his big league career with LA, is looking to prove Tampa Bay wrong for letting him go. Shortstop Rafael Furcal is getting older, and consequently may not have too many more seasons left. The Dodgers still have some talented younger players in James Loney, Andre Ethier, Tony Gwynn and Matt Kempall. Thirty-five year old Journeyman Gabe Kapler is also a non-roster invitee trying to win a backup outfield job.

Don Mattingly will have his hands full this season, his first as manager of a big league ball club, but he will get his team to play at a high level. I don’t know if it will be high enough though, as the NL West will be pretty tough again this season.

Prediction: I see the Dodgers winning 75-80 games, which won’t be enough to get into the playoffs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks had a disappointing 2010, finishing last in the division, only winning 65 games. Arizona signed free agent Henry Blanco to be a mentor for young catcher Miguel Montero. The outfield looks good with Xavier Nady, Justin Upton and Chris Young. Gerardo Parra and Willie Bloomquist will be the outfield backups. Non-Roster invitee Russell Branyan could be a surprise addition with a good spring.

The starters on the infield will more than likely be Stephen Drew, Melvin Mora, Kelly Johnson and Juan Miranda. Geoff Blum, Tony Abreu and Ryan Roberts will use the spring to see who can fill the backup roll. Brandon Allen will try and open some eyes as well, after a strong 2010 in AAA.

Arizona’s rotation will consist of Joe Saunders, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Barry Enright and Zach Duke (out until May). Armando Galarraga will fill in for Duke, and whomever is faltering will be moved to the pen when Duke returns. J.J. Putz, signed in the off season after being the setup man for the White Sox last season, will be the closer.

I really don’t see Arizona competing in the NL West. If they are looking for at bats for non-roster invitee Micah Owings, who they are considering for the long relief role, it can’t be a good thing.

Prediction: The Diamondbacks may win 70 games this year, but at least they can look forward to the 2011 All Star game.
(All rosters are taken from mlb.com active rosters, depth charts and non-roster invitee lists as of 03-20-11)



Comments

  1. Common Knowledge says:

    How can you be a sports columnist posting a baseball preview and not realize that that losing Padilla is insignificant for the Dodgers as he was not in their starting rotation to begin with. You completely overlooked one of the top 10 pitchers in the league in Clayton Kershaw as well as Hiroki Kuroda. I know this and I'm from the east coast and not a Dodger fan.

  2. "it looks like the (Padres) ownership is giving up"

    What??? They traded A-gon for some solid prospects and otherwise IMPROVED the team: Hudson, Hawpe, Bartlett, Maybin, etc. Also Aaron Harang will be a stud in his hometown park.

    SD was picked to be really bad last year and nearly beat out the champs. I see much the same last year — even in a good division. You gotta' learn from history. The Padre-bashing is absurd.

    BTW, Gonzalez may do well in cheap Fenway, but he's an overrated player and NOT a leader. Ask anyone on that team, and they'll tell you he's quiet, lazy and does not hit or field when it counts. He's also a bozo with his ignorant comments about the Arizona immigration law.

    No big loss for SD. They're better and younger without him.

    Down year for Giants. No hitting.

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