Note: This post is from 2011!!!
Click to see our official bracket for the 2012 NCAA Tournament.
As Michael Jackson and his brothers once sang, “Can you feel it? Can you feeeel it? CAN YOU FEEL IT!?” I am speaking, of course, about the 2011 NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament, which is always my favorite time of the sports year.
The excitement gets amped up during the final few weeks of the regular season, kicks into high gear during Championship Week, and then crescendos with three weeks of sports ecstasy once the brackets are announced on Selection Sunday. (Yeah, I’m kind of a college basketball nut.)
And there is nothing I get more ecstatic about during March Madness than making my bracket predictions.
My picks used to be very subjective and based far more on what my heart told me than what my head told me. Thus, I would always pick Indiana to go further than I probably should, I’d always pick Purdue to lose in the 1st round on principle, and I generally let factors other than who I actually thought was the best team influence my picks. Not that it mattered. I didn’t run a website back then, and I don’t enter tourney pools for money, so filling out my bracket was more for fun than anything else.
But once I started MSF, and achieved the honor and responsibility of a consistent reader base, that all changed*. Starting in 2009 I decided that I would completely switch gears and seek out some sort of objective, stat-based method for making my annual bracket picks. If I was going to post them here, I wanted to be able to defend my selections and offer a reasonable March Madness voice that people could use as they made their own picks.
* – in the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that this stark change also coincided with Indiana beginning its current 3-year run of missing the NCAA Tournament, which has meant I have not had to face the prospect of picking their game(s) objectively. I really, really, really hope I get to have that challenge again next season. Philosophies will collide…
In 2009, my March Madness bracket predictions went pretty well considering the general randomness inherent in picking the bracket. My system:
- correctly picked 72% of the first round game;
- correctly picked 45 out of the 64 possible bracket spots (70.3%), and;
- correctly predicted seven out of the eight Elite 8 teams, three of the four Final 4 teams, and the national champion, the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Obviously I will spend my entire life reaching for the Holy March Madness Grail of a perfect bracket, but reasonably speaking I will take my 2009 success every year.
Unfortunately, I tweaked my March Madness bracket picks in 2010 but did not fare quite so well. Let’s put it this way: I picked Kansas to win it all and had Butler losing in the first round. Yeah, not so good.
BUT, despite last year’s downturn, I enter the 2011 bracket picking season undeterred and ready to take another crack at improving my system for completely objective bracket predicting. As usual, I have chosen a set of statistics that I will use to break down each matchup. Based on the results from 2009 and 2010, I have settled on the following seven for this year:
- Guard Experience: calculated by assigning a value from 1-4 for freshman-senior for every guard who averaged 20 minutes or more per game and is healthy entering the tournament; that sum is then averaged.
- Potential NBA Players: using the Top 100 NBA Prospects from NBADraftExpress.com, I assigned each team 4 points for having a player in the top 25, 3 points for a player between 26-50, 2 points for a player between 51-75, and 1 point for a player between 76-100. The sum of the points is the team’s value for this category.
- KenPom rating: the overall team rating based on Ken Pomeroy’s statistical model. (note: I gathered most of the data, and all for the “big conference” teams before conference tournaments started, but for some small school automatic qualifiers, I had to wait until after the tournaments when I knew who the tourney team would be.)
- Defensive eFG%: this is a KenPom stat that measures field goal percentage, but with the twist that it gives 50% more credit for made three-point field goals (thus valuing the importance of a team’s ability to guard the three-point line, important in tournament play).
- Defensive Offensive rebounding percentage: this is another KenPom stat, and I realize it probably sounds oxymoronic; what it measures is the percentage of offensive rebounds a team allows when they are defense – just a fancy of assessing what team is better at protecting its own glass and not allowing opportunities for second-chance points.
- Assist-Turnover ratio: no fancy stats here; just total team assists divided by total team turnovers.
- Free Throw percentage: again, nothing fancy. Just a team’s FT% for the season.
Those are the Magnificent March Madness 7. If you have followed my picks in the past, you know that in general I look for the following things come tournament time: experienced guard play; teams that protect the ball; teams that make free throws; and teams that are solid on the defensive end of the floor.
Obviously I tweaked things this year with the addition of the KenPom stats for defense and rebounding because I like his methodology for measuring them. And I used his overall rating because its purpose (explained here) is exactly what I’m looking for: “to be purely predictive” and “to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors.”
Also, the addition of the NBA category is new as well. It occurred to me while sitting down to plan this out that the teams that ultimately cut down the nets often have at least one and often multiple future NBA players on their roster. This is basketball after all, and the team with most talent will win most (I said most!) of the time. I figured this was an important component to incorporate.
Now, as for the methodology of how I make my game-by-game picks, it is as follows: I gather the data for each team and whichever squad wins more of the categories advances (hence the odd number of categories). If one category is a push, it is thrown out. Thus, the possibility exists for ties. Only in these cases do I allow subjectivity to enter my picks. Otherwise, I go straight down the line and let the stats decide. Make sense?
Quick caveat: I know that this system is inherently flawed, so there is no reason to take to the comment section and preach to the choir – although I do welcome constructive opinions about how you think it could be improved. What this system is, I think, is at least a decent attempt at an objective, stats-based predicting system that is reasonable for me to manage in terms of time and research. I’d love to have 24 hours a day, 7 days a week to gather data and create a mega-ultra-super-duper-system that accounts for every possible team factor I deem relevant, but that’s not possible. And, anyway, the sad truth is that I’ll end up spending some 8-10 hours doing these picks and my bracket will probably be beaten by some turd sandwich who hasn’t watched a single college basketball game all year. Madness indeed!
Here is the Excel spreadsheet I am working with if you want to see how I set it up and how everything played out.
Here is my official bracket for 2011:
I know that you will agree with some of these picks and disagree with some of these picks. And if you’re a Big East fan, apparently you’ll really disagree a few in particular…just look at the comment section. As always, I encourage dissent and opinions different than my own. So use the comment section liberally.
Also, consider putting your “money where your mouth is,” so to speak, by joining our bracket challenge. If you’re going to pick out individual picks and take me to task (and please do!), at least have the stones to present your entire bracket.
Update: Since posting these predictions, I wrote and published this article entitled “Using Advanced Metrics to Separate Contenders from Pretenders in This Year’s Tournament Field” based on the work of Ken Pomeroy and Luke Winn. I am not, I repeat not, changing my bracket based on the analysis I conducted for that article – over 100,000 people have already read my predictions so I’m sticking with them – but I will admit that analyzing the AdjO and AdjD rankings and trends of the past seven years as they relate to NCAA Tournament success has given me a hell of a good idea for how I’m going to tweak my prediction system next year.
So if you want to be fully informed with my thinking, read the predictions below and also check out that article. I wouldn’t have come back to this post to link to it if I didn’t think it was very, very much worth doing so.
Now onto the predictions.
East Region Bracket Predictions
First Round Picks:
- For #16 seed: Texas-San Antonio over Alabama State
- For 12 seed: Clemson over UAB
Sorry Mike Davis. You probably didn’t deserve a bid anyway, and I think you’ll go home early. But congrats on a great regular season in C-USA.
Second Round Picks:
- #1 Ohio State over #16 Texas-San Antonio
- #9 Villanova over #8 George Mason
- #4 Kentucky over #13 Princeton
- #5 West Virginia over #12 Clemson
- #2 North Carolina over #15 Long Island
- #10 Georgia over #7 Washington
- #6 Xavier over #11 Marquette
- #3 Syracuse over #14 Indiana State
Everyone is picking George Mason over ice cold Villanova, but the Wildcats have an experienced and talented backcourt that I think can lead them out of Round 1. Kentucky-Princeton will be closer than people think. Picking Georgia over Washington makes me nervous, especially when you consider how well Isaiah Thomas has played in tournament situations, but Georgia was a tick better this year on defense and on the glass, so they get the nod. Xavier-Marquette came out at 3-3, so it was a judgment call, and I’m going for Xavier because they are very good on the glass and better defensively than Marquette.
Third Round Picks:
- #1 Ohio State over #9 Villanova
- #4 Kentucky over #5 West Virginia
- #2 North Carolina over #10 Georgia
- #3 Syracuse over #6 Xavier
Well this is no fun. My system predicts each of the top four seeds to advance. No real explanation needed. The teams were seeded on the top line for a reason, and their ratings back it up and move them on.
Sweet 16 Picks:
- #1 Ohio State over #4 Kentucky
- #3 Syracuse over #2 North Carolina
Ohio State gets the nod over a very talented but young Kentucky team because of their guard experience and very high assist/turnover ratio (1.56). Tough draw for Kentucky. They are a good team, but just not good enough to get past Ohio State. Syracuse gets the nod over North Carolina in a very, very close matchup due to their backcourt experience and ability to take care of the basketball.
Elite 8 Picks:
- #1 Ohio State over #3 Syracuse
The Buckeyes actually came out ahead in six of the seven categories. I felt coming into the tournament that Ohio State was the best team, so it is no surprise that they end up moving on to my Final 4.
West Region Bracket Predictions
Second Round Picks:
- #1 Duke over #16 Hampton
- #8 Michigan over #9 Tennessee
- #4 Texas over #13 Oakland
- #5 Arizona over #12 Memphis
- #2 San Diego State over #15 Northern Colorado
- #7 Temple over #10 Penn State
- #11 Missouri over #6 Cincinnati
- #14 Bucknell over #3 UCONN
Bucknell's Mike Muscala
Chalk, chalk, chalk, WHOA! Yes, the West Regional features my biggest upset of the first round: Bucknell over UCONN. Earlier today, I wrote about why Bucknell was a double-digit seed poised to pull an upset, and the system backed me up and predicted it. Now, am I totally confident about them beating a UCONN team that features a bona fide superstar and that just beat five Big East teams in five days? No, not totally. But Bucknell has experience, they have size, and they are tremendous on the boards. And maybe, just maybe, UCONN will be tired and overconfident.
As for Missouri over Cincinnati, the Tigers have had a pretty nice tourney history under Mike Anderson, and I don’t trust the Bearcats, so that upset pick doesn’t worry me at all. One game I am a bit worried about is Texas-Oakland. Rick Barnes does not exactly inspire confidence, and Oakland is a really good team. I would not be surprised at all if Oakland pulls it out, but Texas has been a tremendous defensive team for most of the season, and they are clearly more talented.
Third Round Picks:
- #1 Duke over #8 Michigan
- #4 Texas over #5 Arizona
- #2 San Diego State over #7 Temple
- #14 Bucknell over #11 Missouri
Texas gets the nod over Arizona because of their talent and ability to force teams into poor shooting percentages. San Diego State is a really good team that I thought had a legit claim at the #1 seed. Oh, and there is Bucknell again. They simply dominate Missouri in every metric but overall KenPom rating and players with NBA potential. They are this year’s Cinderella, getting into the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16 Picks:
- #1 Duke over #4 Texas
- #2 San Diego State over #14 Bucknell
No way Rick Barnes beats Coach K. I just can’t see it happening. And with Duke’s experience, they have a clear edge. As for San Diego State and Bucknell, this was actually a 3-3 matchup that came down to a judgment call. It’s tough to pick against Bucknell, as they are clearly the team I’m hitching my bracket wagon to this year, but I went with San Diego State because they are more talented and very good on defense and on the glass. It’ll be a close one though.
Elite 8 Picks:
- #2 San Diego State over #1 Duke
Surprise! I would not have argued if the committee had chosen San Diego State as a #1 seed over Duke, and this obviously bears that out. San Diego State wins 4-3 here based on their higher assist/TO ratio and slightly better numbers for eFG% and defensive OR%.
Interesting note: if the bracket falls this way, then Duke will play Michigan and former Michigan coach and current SDSU coach Steve Fisher. Seeing as how the Fab 5 movie – which featured a lot of talk about the Fab 5′s Duke hate – debuted right after the ESPN bracket breakdown show, I’d say that’s pretty appropriate.
Southwest Region Bracket Predictions
First Round Picks:
- For #11 seed: USC over Virginia Commonwealth
When I was preparing to do these picks, I gathered stats for every team that I thought might have a conceivable shot at making the tourney. I did not get stats for VCU. Let that be yet another knock on their legitimacy as a tourney team.
Second Round Picks:
- #1 Kansas over Boston U
- #9 Illinois over #8 UNLV
- #13 Morehead State over #3 Louisville
- #5 Vanderbilt over #12 Richmond
- #2 Notre Dame over #15 Akron
- #7 Texas A&M over #10 Florida State
- #6 Georgetown over #11 USC
- #3 Purdue over #14 St. Peter’s
Obviously the Morehead State over Louisville pick jumps out here. I know that Rick Pitino is a good tournament coach, but remember that the Cardinals have overachieved this year with relatively subpar talent. Morehead State, however, has Kenneth Faried, who is a legit NBA prospect. Because of Faried, Morehead State is outstanding on the glass. They also have an experienced backcourt that should be able to deal with battle-tested Louisville.
Texas A&M-Florida State was a 3-3 tie, and I chose the Aggies because of the uncertainty surrounding Chris Singleton’s injury. Illinois was a 5-2 winner over UNLV based on their talent and backcourt. The Illini have been disappointing, but they have the talent to make a tourney run.
Third Round Picks:
- #1 Kansas over #9 Illinois
- #5 Vanderbilt over #13 Morehead State
- #2 Notre Dame over #7 Texas A&M
- #3 Purdue over #6 Georgetown
Kansas-Illinois is an interesting matchup because of the Bill Self connection. Illinois has the talent to compete with Jayhawks, but I’m glad the stats predict Kansas because I think the Jayhawks are out to avenge last year’s early exit, and Illinois has just been too inconsistent to trust. Vandy gets the nod over Morehead State because they have more NBA talent and do a better job protecting the ball and making their free throws. Purdue is a pretty easy choice over Georgetown, though both teams struggled at the end of the season.
Sweet 16 Picks:
- #1 Kansas over #5 Vanderbilt
- #3 Purdue over #2 Notre Dame
Kansas really has a pretty easy road to the Elite 8, all things considered. But then again, no one thought they would lose to Northern Iowa last year, so who knows what an “easy road” really means anyway. The Jayhawks are far superior to Vanderbilt though, so I’d be shocked to see an upset here.
In the battle for the Hoosier State, Purdue gets the nod over Notre Dame because the Boilers have more talent with E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, and they also have more experience in the backcourt. It’s close to a toss-up though, so I would not be surprised either way. As a native of Indiana, I’d just love to see this matchup.
Elite 8 Picks:
- #1 Kansas over #3 Purdue
I’ve been pretty impressed with Purdue all season, and have said that they have Final 4 potential. They do, but they better hope someone knocks of Kansas before the Elite 8. The Jayhawks have more talent than Purdue, and the Morris twins would ultimately be the difference in this matchup, propelling Kansas to the Final 4 they should have made last year.
Southeast Regional Bracket Predictions
First Round Picks:
- For 16 seed: UNC-Asheville over Arkansas-Little Rock
Second Round Picks:
- #1 Pittsburgh over #16 UNC-Asheville
- #8 Butler over #9 Old Dominion
- #4 Wisconsin over #13 Belmont
- #12 Utah State over #5 Kansas State
- #2 Florida over #15 UC-Santa Barbara
- #10 Michigan State over #7 UCLA
- #11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John’s
- #3 BYU over #14 Wofford
The Southeast has the potential to wild. I have three lower-seeded teams winning in the first round, and it easily could be five. Butler-ODU was a 3-3 tie, and I chose Butler to right the wrongs of last year – when my system picked the eventual national runner-up Bulldogs to lose in Round 1 (ugh). Plus, I trust Brad Stevens and the Mack-Nored-Howard trio, despite my appreciation for Old Dominion. I really wish these two teams weren’t facing eachother.
Also, Belmont is going to be a popular upset pick over Wisconsin. And it’s not a bad one. But my system rewards taking care of the basketball, making free throws, and rebounding, all things that Wisconsin is very good at. I’m terrified of trusting the Badgers after the egg they laid in the Big 10 Tournament, but I’ve got to trust the stats, so hopefully they and Bo Ryan come through for me.
As for Utah State over Kansas State, I figured this one would be the pick as soon as I saw the matchup during the Selection Show. Utah State is a top 25 team despite their 12 seed, and Kansas State has been up and down all year. Similarly, I think St. John’s is a bit overrated. They did a nice job during Big East play, but they have injury concerns and did not play much of a non-conference schedule. They are also not great on defense (an awful 50.8% defensive eFG%). Mark Few knows how to coach tourney underdogs, and I think Gonzaga gets it done.
Michigan State over UCLA? Yes, I trust Tom Izzo enough to feel comfortable with this pick. The Spartans are terribly inconsistent, but they can beat the Bruins.
Third Round Picks:
- #1 Pittsburgh over #8 Butler
- #4 Wisconsin over #12 Utah State
- #2 Florida over #10 Michigan State
- #3 BYU over #11 Gonzaga
After some second round craziness, the Southeast bracket settles down in the third round. Butler can definitely beat Pittsburgh, but this is the kind of game where not having a talent like Gordon Heyward will really limit the Bulldogs. Wisconsin-Utah State would be a great matchup, with Jordan Taylor being the difference. Michigan State has not proven they can play consistently, so while I would not be shocked to see them get it together and make a deep run I am happy that Florida was the pick. And BYU, with Jimmer Fredette, overwhelms Gonzaga.
Sweet 16 Picks:
- #1 Pittsburgh over #4 Wisconsin
- #3 BYU over #2 Florida
The Pittsburgh-Wisconsin matchup actually ended up as a 3-3 tie. I went with Pittsburgh because a) they are simply a better team overall, and b) I’m terrified the Badgers could get clipped by Belmont in their opening game so I don’t want them going too far. BYU came out as a 6-0 winner over Florida. Granted the stats take into account the games BYU played with Brandon Davies, but the Cougars have the best player on the floor and in tournament time that team wins more often than not.
Elite 8 Picks:
- #1 Pittsburgh over #3 BYU
And this would be one of those times when the team with the best player does not win. Jamie Dixon and the Panthers can finally get the Final 4 monkey off of their backs because of how well they take care of the basketball and because they are better on D and on the glass than BYU, especially with Davies out.
Final Four Predictions
Final 4 Picks:
- East #1 Ohio State over West #2 San Diego State
- Southwest #1 Kansas over Southeast #1 Pittsburgh
San Diego State will be the feel good story of the Final 4, but they just do not have what it takes to compete with the Buckeyes. Ohio State is more talented, better at protecting the ball, and good enough down low to rebound even better than the Aztecs, who are a good rebounding team themselves.
Kansas gets the nod over Pittsburgh based on talent, which helps the Jayhawks to be just a little bit better than the Panthers across the board statistically. Plus, Bill Self has been to the Final 4 before, whereas Dixon and the Panthers will be going for the first time.
Thad Matta and the Buckeyes are the #1 overall seed.
Championship Game Pick:
- Ohio State over Kansas
These are the top two teams heading into the tournament, and it would be fitting if they met in Houston to decide it all.
Ohio State is the pick because they can match up with Kansas’ immense talent, and are better than the Jayhawks in ball protection, making free throws, and rebounding. I would not be surprised in the slightest if Kansas ended up winning, but I think the difference is Jared Sullinger’s ability to control the paint and Jon Diebler’s ability to stretch the floor. With those two, David Lighty, William Buford, and DeShaun Thomas can operate in the middle of the floor and create all kinds of problems for Kansas.
There may be storm clouds forming over the Ohio State football program, but Thad Matta and the basketball Buckeyes will give their fans something to cheer about by bringing home a National Championship.
2011 NCAA Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
And now, for the third time in this post, I’ll encourage you to join the MSF Bracket Challenge. Whether you like my picks or not, put your bracket to the test and let’s see who (gets luckiest) prognosticates the best!
About Jerod Morris
