Elite 8 Preview: Arizona v UCONN Info, Analysis & Prediction

Update: Prediction posted.

Not a lot of people had Arizona facing off against Connecticut in the Elite 8 – heck, I had UCONN losing in the first round! (yes, I’m an idiot) – but that’s the matchup we’ve got. And you know what? It’s a fascinating one.

Other than Butler, nobody in America is hotter than the Huskies. After scuffling to a 9-seed in the Big East Tournament, Connecticut decided to turn it on and hasn’t lost since. The biggest reason, of course, is Kemba Walker, who is unquestionably the best guard in America right now.

Arizona is not far removed from the Lute Olson rubble, but Sean Miller has proven himself to be one of the best young coaches in America. The ‘Cats are both talented and athletic – just ask Duke – and have perhaps the nation’s best overall player in Derrick Williams.

This will be a fast, physical, athletic game between two well-coached team led by terrific stars. So while it may not have been the one anyone predicted, it’s quite possible that this is the most entertaining Elite 8 matchup we could have gotten in the West Region. Let’s look at it a closer.

Elite 8: Arizona-UCONN Game Info

  • Arizona-UCONN Date: Saturday, March 26th
  • Arizona-UCONN Tip Time: 7:00 ET
  • Arizona-UCONN TV: CBS
  • Arizona-UCONN Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
  • Arizona-UCONN Location: The Honda Center in Anaheim, CA
  • Arizona-UCONN Point Spread: UCONN -3
  • Arizona-UCONN Over-Under: 145

Arizona-UCONN Statistical Analysis

Via the ESPN.com Bracket Predictor, here is a breakdown of Butler-Florida via some relevant, predictive metrics:

arizona-uconn-elite-8-preview-prediction-point-spread-pick-tv-tip-time-cbs-announcers

arizona-uconn-elite-8-preview-prediction-point-spread-pick-tv-tip-time-cbs-announcers arizona-uconn-elite-8-preview-prediction-point-spread-pick-tv-tip-time-cbs-announcers

uconn-arizona-elite-8-previewA couple quick notes about the stats:

  • First off, the straws that stir the drinks in this game are UCONN’s Kemba Walker and Arizona’s Derrick Williams. With apologies to Jared Sullinger and the Morris twins, Walker and Williams are playing better than anyone else in this tournament. If one is appreciably better than the other Saturday night, that team will win. I think they’ll both be outstanding, which means their supporting cast will ultimately decide the game.
  • Offensively, Arizona is very good: 14th in points per possession and 10th in effective field goal percentage. Where they struggle is with turnovers, which they do on 16.3% of their possessions. However, UCONN is a shocking 315th in the nation in forcing turnovers. To beat Arizona, UCONN will need to get turnovers and limit field goal attempts.
  • UCONN is very solid on offense, as led by Walker. Arizona has not been a great defensive team throughout the season, other than on the glass. This will be a big battle. UCONN is 7th best in the nation in controlling their own offensive glass, while Arizona is 44th (pretty good, not great) in giving up offensive rebounds. The ‘Cats need to keep the Fighting Calhouns off the glass.

Arizona-UCONN Prediction

One our college basketball-obsessed writers will have a more complete analysis and prediction for this game later today or tomorrow morning (at the latest). Until then, we want to know what you think:

Who will win the Elite 8 matchup between Arizona and Connecticut?

  • #3 seed UCONN Huskies (43%, 193 Votes)
  • #5 seed Arizona Wildcats (57%, 253 Votes)

Total Voters: 447

Loading ... Loading ...

Check back soon for our analysis and pick.

Update: Okay, time to quit procrastinating and offer a pick; but I’ll be honest in that I really do not feel strongly either way.

Connecticut is obviously red hot, seemingly still riding a way of confidence and energy from their Big East tourney run. They also have the best hand-handling player in America in Kemba Walker leading the charge. If this game is close in the final minutes, I always want the team with the best guard, so in a close game I like UCONN.

However, Arizona just showed us that they are capable of dominating a really good team and turning a deficit of their own into a 2nd half blowout. Derrick Williams was sensational against Duke, and there is not reason to think he will not have another explosive game. Could Arizona play near-perfect basketball gain, like they did in the 2nd half against Duke, and run the Huskies out of the gym? I guess anything is possible, and it’s a tough image to shake from my mind after the Duke game.

But I see this one being a close game between two pretty evenly matchup teams that had up-and-down regular seasons but are peaking at the right time. Like I said, in a close game give me the team with the best guard. That’s Kemba. This UCONN team looks like one you’ll have to beat by 7-10 to eliminate, because in tight games Kemba is going to make the play.

  • UCONN-Arizona Prediction: Connecticut 75 – Arizona 73
  • UCONN-Arizona Spread Pick: Arizona +3
  • UCONN-Arizona Over/Under Pick: Over

**********



About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

Comments

  1. BEAR DOWN says:

    Keep doubting Arizona, even after we DEMOLISHED duke…we are driven by haters :)
    Final four, here we come!!!!

  2. BYU fan here, I dont care who wins now, but if i had a couple grand to bet i would not hesistate to take Arizona to win it all. Anyone who watched second half against duke could see this is the best team in the tournament.

    • No kidding. Arizona looked spectacular. The question is, can they get up like that again or will there be a letdown? I think it's a legit question because they were clearly big time amped to beat Duke. And sometimes when you beat a team that badly, you come out a bit flat the next night. That said, I trust Sean Miller, and Derrick Williams is awesome, so I'd find it hard to pick against 'Zona.

  3. ZONA all the way!

  4. George Grabel says:

    Its UCONN in the Final Four. I guess you westies aren't aware that UCONN won the Big Tournament by winning 5 five games in five days. This included four ranked teams with Pittsburgh the 3rd ranked team in the country at that time. True blue Husky fan here.

  5. People say that Uconn won 5 games in 5 days….well listen up. What happens in the past has little to do with who wins. Duke–defending champions, FLATTENED by Arizona. AZ can and will pull it off again. They steamrolled over Duke and aren't stopping now.

  6. George Grabel says:

    You guys are easy to tweak up. I'm looking foreward to a great basketball game. May the best team win (UCONN).

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