Less than two weeks from today we’ll have a real bracket in our hands, but there is still plenty of work to be done between now and then.
That also means plenty of time to break down the movers and shakers on the “soft bubble.” In case you’re scoring at home, that’s code for “a bunch of these teams kinda suck but we have to find 68 teams somehow.”
Instead of detailing the lengthy list of every team that’s in the mix, this week’s edition of Bubble Boys will look at those on the rise, on the decline, and those stuck in the middle. I’ll list my locks and other teams under consideration at the end.
Stock Up
Cincinnati (22-7, 9-7 Big East) – Even with Sunday’s loss to UConn, the Bearcats have made huge strides in recent weeks with a home win over Louisville coupled with a road victory against Georgetown. UC doesn’t have a bad loss (all against teams in the RPI Top 35), and with four Top 25 wins on their profile, things are looking up. They do finish with a pair of tough games, on the road at fellow bubble hopeful Marquette and at home versus Georgetown. Winning one of those should make them a lock, but losing both doesn’t eliminate them either.
Colorado (18-11, 7-7 Big 12) – Saturday’s huge come from behind win over Texas has the Buffs back in the discussion. They now have five Top 50 wins, which they hope can overshadow losses to San Francisco and Oklahoma. If the Buffs can avoid bad losses on the road against Iowa State and at home against Nebraska, that gives them 20 wins, which should be enough barring an early exit from the Big 12 Tournament.
George Mason (25-5, 16-2 Colonial) – The Patriots reeled off 15 straight wins to end the season with 12 of those victories coming by at least 14 points. In the process, Mason has entered the Top 25 in both the RPI and Pomeroy Ratings and helped erase the sting of early losses to Wofford and NC State. The Patriots won the regular season conference title by two games, so a trip to the finals probably isn’t necessary, although it certainly wouldn’t hurt from a seeding perspective. They are virtually a lock.
Kansas State (20-9, 8-6 Big 12) – The 16-point win over then top-ranked Kansas kicked off a four-game win streak for the Wildcats, including Saturday’s win over Missouri. The Wildcats are now 9-9 against the Top 100 with two Top 30 wins, which is a far cry from where they were just a few weeks ago. At this point, they can withstand a road loss at Texas on Monday, but the home finale against Iowa State is one they simply can’t lose.
Marquette (18-11, 9-7 Big East) – The Golden Eagles followed up Thursday’s overtime win over UConn by blowing out Providence on Sunday, which puts the Big East in position to get 11 teams in the tournament. As I mentioned last week, Marquette has played an astounding number of games against the RPI Top 25 and really doesn’t have a bad loss, so a home win against Cincinnati on Wednesday would be the icing on the cake.
Utah State (26-3, 13-1 WAC) – I was as skeptical of the Aggies as anyone just a couple weeks ago, so I have to give credit where credit is due. They picked up a critical win at Saint Mary’s in the Bracketbusters, coming back from a large first half deficit to win by double-digits. They are just 2-2 versus the Top 100, but given their gaudy RPI numbers, I can’t see them being left out unless they implode down the stretch. While you can disagree with RPI as an accurate measurement of a team’s overall quality, the fact is that we know the committee uses it in the selection process. That bodes well for Utah State’s chances.
Virginia Tech (19-8, 9-5 ACC) – In the wake of Va Tech’s win over Duke on Saturday night, Dick Vitale (aka the Master of Hyperbole) emphatically stated the Hokies were in. Not so fast Dickie V. The fact is that victory doubled Va Tech’s Top 50 win total (a nice way of saying they only had one before), and it doesn’t forgive being swept by Virginia. The Hokies have remaining games left at home against Boston College and at Clemson, both of whom are fighting for their tournament lives. Lose one or both of those and there will be work to do in the ACC Tournament.
Stock Down
Alabama (19-9, 11-3 SEC) – Saturday’s loss at Mississippi makes the Tide’s final two games (at Florida, vs. Georgia) must-wins. A weak SEC West has allowed them to rack up wins, but it has also limited their options for quality W’s. Eleven of their 19 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 200, and seven of their losses have come against teams that won’t make the tournament. That’s a steep hill to climb at this point in the season.
Memphis (21-8, 9-5 C-USA) – In any other year, losing by 27 to UTEP would be a death sentence, but not this one. Somehow Memphis remains in the Top 35 of the RPI (seriously, can anyone explain to me why this metric is used?) in spite of that loss. The Tigers have zero Top 25 wins and their only Top 50 wins are against UAB and Southern Mississippi. Even a run to the finals of the conference tournament won’t enhance their profile, so while they continue to show up in mock brackets, I have a hard time understanding the rationale.
Minnesota (17-11, 6-10 Big Ten) – The Gophers’ recent swoon has a direct correlation to point guard Al Nolen’s injury. As it stands, Minnesota has lost seven of its last eight games heading into Wednesday’s game at Northwestern. Two of their three best wins came all the way back in November, and there has been no indication as to when or if Nolen will return. The Gophers would need to make a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament to get back in the discussion.
Nebraska (18-10, 6-8 Big 12) – A stunning win over Texas got the Huskers onto the bubble, and a horrendous week knocked them right back off. They played poorly down the stretch in a home loss to Kansas State and then rallied to force overtime before losing at lowly Iowa State. Half of their wins have come against sub-200 teams, and they have losses to Davidson and Texas Tech. The Huskers do have games left with Missouri and Colorado, but they’ll need those as well as a strong showing in the Big 12 Tournament to regain the goodwill they lost this week.
Saint Mary’s (23-7, 11-3 WCC) – Things snowballed quickly for the Gaels after losing to a woeful San Diego team. They followed that up by blowing a first half lead at home to lose to Utah State then losing in overtime to rival Gonzaga. They managed to salvage a season-ending contest with Portland on Saturday night, but the Gaels are in serious trouble. Their lone Top 50 win came on November 16 against St. John’s, and 10 of their wins are against teams outside the Top 200. At this point, a WCC title looks like a must.
VCU (21-10, 12-6 Colonial) – The Rams dropped their final four conference games, and things actually could have been worse. Their lone wins over their last eight games were by four points at James Madison, in double OT at Delaware, and on a questionable last-second foul call at Wichita State. Only nine of their wins are against the Top 200, which means they will need to win the conference tournament.
Wichita State (23-7, 14-4 MVC) – If the Shockers had been able to hang on against VCU at home and win at Missouri State for the regular season conference championship, they would have earned some margin for error. As it is, they are just 1-5 against the Top 100, with the lone win coming against Tulsa. Throw in a bad loss to Southern Illinois, and the Shockers have no choice but to run the table.
Stock Neutral
Baylor (18-10, 7-7 Big 12) – The Bears completed a season sweep of Texas A&M on Saturday, but the bad news is that those wins over the Aggies are Baylor’s only victories against the Top 50. That does help ease some of the sting of losing to Texas Tech at home, but the Bears need to win their final two games on the road against Oklahoma State and at home against Texas if they want to have a legitimate case on Selection Sunday.
Butler (21-9, 13-5 Horizon) – While the Bulldogs haven’t really picked up a resume-building win, they have won seven straight, which is far more than you can say for many other bubble teams. They also finished high enough to earn a bye into the Horizon League semi-finals, and if they can at least reach the finals, Butler has a great chance to go dancing.
Clemson (19-9, 8-6 ACC) – The Tigers seemed dead after losing to NC State, but they are still alive so long as they perform well over their final two games. On Wednesday they travel to Duke before finishing at home against Virginia Tech on Saturday. Clemson has no wins against the Top 25, and they’re just 7-6 against the Top 100. A home loss to bubble competitor Michigan doesn’t help either, but the opportunities are there for the taking.
Gonzaga (21-9, 11-3 WCC) – Much like Butler, the Zags have held serve while others have failed, winning their last six games heading into a non-conference tilt with Cal State Bakersfield on Monday. Wins over bubble brethren Baylor, Marquette, and Saint Mary’s help the cause, but there are a few ugly losses on their resume as well. A run to the WCC finals is a must for Gonzaga at this point.
Illinois (18-11, 8-8 Big Ten) – The Illini haven’t won any big games in the past couple weeks, but they also haven’t taken any bad losses. Even so, Illinois is just 3-7 against the RPI Top 50 to go along with that hideous loss to Illinois-Chicago. Still, the Illini are sitting at number 38 in the RPI with 10 Top 100 wins. A win at Purdue on Tuesday would seal the deal, but at the very least they can’t lose their home finale against Indiana next weekend.
Michigan (18-12, 8-9 Big Ten) – Saturday’s game at Minnesota was essentially an elimination game in the bubble picture. The Wolverines got the much-needed victory after a heart-breaking loss to Wisconsin earlier in the week when Josh Gasser banked in a three at the buzzer. Michigan is just 2-8 against the Top 50 with one of those wins over Harvard. The other is against Michigan State who the Wolverines play in the season finale on Saturday after a week off. Michigan needs to win that game and possibly another one in the conference tournament in order to make the field.
Richmond (22-7, 11-3 Atlantic 10) – The Spiders have gone 6-1 in their last seven games, and much like other teams listed above, they haven’t sustained a terrible loss in the process. They can’t afford to stumble in the final two games (at St. Joe’s, vs. Duquesne), and they’ll need to at least make the semi-finals of the A-10 Tournament. Their lone Top 50 win is a great one (Purdue), but there isn’t much other meat on the resume so far.
Here’s a quick rundown of the locks:
ACC (2) – Duke, North Carolina
Big East (9) – Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, St. John’s, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (3) – Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12 (4) – Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (1) – Arizona
SEC (3) – Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Mountain West (3) – BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Atlantic 10 (2) – Temple, Xavier
Other bubble teams not mentioned above under consideration:
ACC (3)Â - Boston College, Florida State
Big Ten (2)Â - Michigan State, Penn State
Pac-10 (4) – UCLA, USC (example 1,412 of how weak the bubble is), Washington, Washington State
SEC (2)Â - Georgia, Tennessee
Other (8)Â - Belmont (maybe), Cleveland State, Colorado State, Harvard, Missouri State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, UAB (example 1,413)
Follow me on Twitter for more college basketball thoughts and analysis.
