As I mentioned in the Week 16 waiver wire sleeper picks column, it’s a good thing the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* was not my only league. I made the playoffs in three other leagues, which gave me plenty of incentive to keep working hard doing the research it takes to write these columns and answer questions all week.
And luckily, despite having some bad matchups and making a few bad decisions, I was able to advance to the championship round in one of my leagues. Considering that it’s the league I’ve been in the longest – damn near a decade now, with some of my best friends – you can bet I’ll be overturning every stone to find an advantage. (Of course, when you have Tom Brady at QB and Michael Vick for an any-position flex spot, it’s not really that difficult….)
Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
And now a quick look back at my Week 15 top-line picks:
- Start em hits: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Jason Witten, Miami D
- Start em misses: Pierre Garcon (damn you Austin Collie!),
- Sit em hits: Christopher Ivory (was inactive due to hammy), Ben Roethlisberger; Green Bay D; Rob Gronkowski
- Sit em misses: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Picks
***Carolina and Pittsburgh play on Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play on Saturday night.***
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)
Choosing the start ‘em QB this week was tricky. I try not to make the pick obvious, which ruled out telling you to start guys with great matchups who you are probably already starting like Peyton Manning (at OAK) and Tom Brady (at BUF). In addition, the four teams with the worst passing defenses are all facing inexperienced QBs that I would not want to trust in the championship round: Dallas (John Skelton); Houston (Tim Tebow); Philadelphia (Joe Webb); Jacksonville (Rex Grossman).
So why did I settle on Freeman over the other guys you see in the bulleted list below? It’s pretty simple: he is the best combination of season-long consistency and matchup.
Freeman has thrown for at least one TD in nine straight games. He also only has one game all year in which he has thrown more than one interception, and he has just six INTs on the season. He has also run for over 300 yards, which gives him an extra point or two each week. Finally, Freeman and the Bucs face Seattle in Tampa Bay this week. The Seahawks’ pass defense is pathetic, having given up 26 TD passes on the season.
It’s the championship round, or perhaps the Final Four for you, and you need guaranteed production. Few QBs in the NFL have been as a consistently a 12+ point scorer this season as Freeman has been.
Josh Freeman fantasy football Week 16 projection: 230 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 35 yards rushing
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)
Before I go any further, a quick reminder: just because someone is listed as a sit ‘em, does NOT mean that you automatically sit them. Peyton Hillis will still likely be a top 20 back this week, but I put him to highlight his tough matchup, rough three-game stretch, and the fact that he is not a must-start in Week 16.
I imagine Hillis powered a lot of teams to the playoffs, and that many Hillis owners are still going in Week 16, which is part of why I wanted to list him here. The problem is that Hillis has not been nearly as good over the last three weeks as he had been during the 11 previous weeks. Hillis has not scored a TD since Week 12, though he did rack up 108 yards rushing against Buffalo.
This week, Hillis gets to face the less than generous Baltimore Ravens run defense that has given up just five rushing TDs on the season. Ask Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush what it’s like facing the Ravens. Now, you’ll recall that Hillis ran for 144 yards and a TD against Baltimore in 4. The way I see it, that was a much fresher Hillis – he’d never had more than 68 carries in a season coming into this one – and Baltimore’s run D has improved as the weather has gotten worse.
Final verdict: Hillis is still worth starting, but he could very well be the odd man out if you happen to be stacked at RB. Don’t be afraid to sit him if that’s the case.
Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 65 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 catches, 30 yards
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)
Bowe shocked the fantasy world by being the best WR in the league over the first 13 weeks of the season. He caught 14 TDs and during a three-game stretch from Week 12 through Week 12 he did not catch less than 109 yards or fewer than two TDs in any game. To put it simply, Bowe was awesome.
But then Week 13 happened, and Bowe got shut out. This was surprising, but he did have Champ Bailey on him. In Week 14, Bowe caught one pass for three yards as Brodie Croyle filled in for Matt Cassel. Okay, we all thought, he just needs Cassel back. Then, in Week 15, he got Cassel back and had just two catches for 53 yards against St. Louis. While that’s a nice average, it’s not a particularly strong fantasy day.
So what do you do now that we’re in Week 16, all the marbles are on the line, and the guy who carried you to the playoffs has now been worthless for three straight weeks? If it’s me, and I have decent alternatives, I sit him.
In addition to Bowe’s struggles over the past couple of weeks, he has to face a Tennessee pass D that is in the top third in league in terms of fewest TD passes allowed. While both Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter caught TD passes against the Titans last week, both were caught after the Titans had jumped out to a huge lead. I don’t think we’ll see Kansas City having to scramble playing catch up next week.
The Chiefs are built around the run and will continue to focus on the run now that their passing game has struggled for three straight weeks. Bowe is not a terrible option, but like Hillis, there is a chance that if you go this far that you have good alternatives. This would be a week to use them.
Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs
Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our extended start ‘em, sit ‘em projections at QB, RB, and WR, as well as our our start, sit picks at TE and Defense.
Commenting is turned off here, but feel free to ask any questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.
About Jerod Morris
