Bettor’s Guide: NFL Week 11 Picks, Point Spreads, and Over-Under Odds

Update 11/17: All spreads and picks are in.

And I’m back!

After three straight weeks in which I was one game under .500, I stormed back in Week 10 with a 9-5 record. That makes me 76-57-6 overall, which is just over 57% for the season. I consider 51% to be successful when it comes to picking games in this wild, crazy, unpredictable league, so I’m ecstatic being 19 games over .500.

Now it’s time to back up a good week with another good one. Let’s get to the picks.

nfl week 11 picks - point spreads - over-under odds - free picks ats against the spreadA couple of quick things to keep in mind:

  • All times are ET.
  • All spread info is from Tuesday morning. Not all spreads were available so I’ll update this post when they are.
  • If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.
  • DocSports: NFL Odds
  • DocSports: NFL Picks

And with all that said, here are your Week 11 picks, as well as the point spreads and over-under odds for each Week 11 game.

NFL Week 11 Bettor’s Guide

Free Picks – Point Spreads – Over-Under Odds

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins

  • Bears-Dolphins Date: Thursday, November 18th at 8:20 pm on NFLN
  • Bears-Dolphins Point Spread: Dolphins -1.5
  • Bears-Dolphins Over-Under Odds: 40.5
  • Bears-Dolphins Spread Pick: The Dolphins played very well in Week 10, winning a game against Tennessee that I didn’t they’d win. Similarly, the Bears won a game I didn’t they’d win against Minnesota. Now they face eachother, with the Dolphins breaking in a new QB in Tyler Thigpen. I’m not too excited about an inexperienced, rusty QB facing the Bears D, but I’m also never excited about picking Jay Cutler on the road. The Dolphins are the better team and put the AFC’s superiority on the display in this one. Bears-Dolphins free pick: Dolphins -1.5

Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers

  • Ravens-Panthers Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on CBS
  • Ravens-Panthers Point Spread: Ravens -10
  • Ravens-Panthers Over-Under Odds: 37
  • Ravens-Panthers Spread Pick: I hate big numbers, especially when it’s the road team getting the points, but Carolina is so bad this year that 10 points almost doesn’t seem like enough. The Panthers very well may be starting rookie Tony Pike at QB, and who knows if they’ll have DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart back. With Baltimore rested, having played Thursday night in Week 10, and smarting from the loss to Atlanta, I think they’ll come ready to play. Carolina only has a shot if Baltimore isn’t focused and I don’t see that happening. Ravens-Panthers free pick: Ravens -10

Houston Texans at New York Jets

  • Texans-Jets Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on CBS
  • Texans-Jets Point Spread: Jets -7
  • Texans-Jets Over-Under Odds: 45.5
  • Texans-Jets Spread Pick: The Jets have battled the Browns and Lions to overtime victories the last two weeks when many expected them to roll in each game. Houston’s D has been terrible this year, but they have an offense that can compete in shootouts. The Jets are the better team, but Houston is desperate. Considering the Jets’ inability to beat Cleveland or Detroit by more than three, I expect the trend to continue. Texans-Jets free pick: Texans +7

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Cardinals-Chiefs Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Cardinals-Chiefs Point Spread: Chiefs -9
  • Cardinals-Chiefs Over-Under Odds: 43.5
  • Cardinals-Chiefs Spread Pick: Kansas City got blasted last week by Denver, perhaps a sign that some of their young players are hitting a wall. Arizona similarly got killed by Seattle, but still is playing for a playoff spot because of how bad the NFC West is. I expect a much better performance from Arizona, and the Chiefs are struggling enough that this should be a close game. Nine points are way too many to give when your QB is Matt Cassel and your defense is so young. Cardinals-Chiefs free pick: Cardinals +9

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans

  • Redskins-Titans Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Redskins-Titans Point Spread: Titans -7
  • Redskins-Titans Over-Under Odds: 44
  • Redskins-Titans Spread Pick: My immediate reaction to this spread is that it seems like an overreaction to what we saw Monday night. The Redskins are a decent team that ran into an unstoppable juggernaut in Michael Vick. With their season and playoff chances still very much alive in the NFC, I expect a much better effort from a humbled, embarrassed Washington team. Tennessee, on the other hand, worries me a bit. They cannot maintain any continuity at the QB position and Randy Moss is a wild card that has been decidedly negative so far this year. I like this one to be close. Redskins-Titans free pick: Redskins +7

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Bills-Bengals Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on CBS
  • Bills-Bengals Point Spread: Bengals -5
  • Bills-Bengals Over-Under Odds: 44
  • Bills-Bengals Spread Pick: Wow, I love this spread. Buffalo is fighting tooth and nail for every point and finally got in the W column last week. Cincinnati has been downright pathetic this year considering their preseason expectations. I expect the Bengals to start folding in games that get tough because I don’t trust their character. Buffalo, on the other hand, is proving that we should trust theirs. Bills-Bengals free pick: Bills +5

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Raiders-Steelers Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on CBS
  • Raiders-Steelers Point Spread: Steelers -9
  • Raiders-Steelers Over-Under Odds: 41.5
  • Raiders-Steelers Spread Pick: Wow, another big number, and I don’t like it. Pittsburgh was man-handled by New England last week, but it wasn’t necessarily a fluke. That game highlighted some major issues the Steelers have in the trenches. Oakland has been surprisingly good this year and should be able to run the ball even against the Steelers’ vaunted run D. I don’t think Oakland wins, but nine points just seems to high for this inconsistent Pittsburgh crew. Raiders-Steelers free pick: Raiders +9

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Browns-Jaguars Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on CBS
  • Browns-Jaguars Point Spread: Jaguars -1
  • Browns-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 43
  • Browns-Jaguars Spread Pick: The Jags have played very well at home this year and keep on finding ways to win. Cleveland has been a plucky bunch, beating NE and NO, and almost beating the Jets last week. Still, I think the Browns a play-maker or two on offense away from winning consistently. With the Jags fighting for their playoff lives and Cleveland due for a letdown against a non-division, non-rival, non-big name opponent, I expect Jacksonville to win this one by about a TD. Browns-Jaguars free pick: Jaguars -1

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

  • Lions-Cowboys Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Lions-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5
  • Lions-Cowboys Over-Under Odds: 46.5
  • Lions-Cowboys Spread Pick: Wow, the Cowboys finally play four good quarters of football and suddenly they are nearly a TD favorite against a team that is playing everyone tough? No thanks. Dallas may well win this game, in fact they probably will since Detroit can’t win on the road, but I think it’d be foolish to trust the Cowboys enough to pick them by a TD. And Detroit’s been in enough games this year that a close, hard-fought battle is reasonable to expect. Lions-Cowboys free pick: Lions +6.5

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

  • Packers-Vikings Date: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Packers-Vikings Point Spread: Packers -3
  • Packers-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 44
  • Packers-Vikings Spread Pick: This is officially Minnesota’s last stand. A win and the Vikings remain barely alive at 4-6. A loss and the Vikings are 3-7 and making offseason plans. At home, against a QB who is not exactly clutch, I think Favre and the Vikings get the win. It won’t be pretty, but the expected return of Sidney Rice should help the offense. They just need to block Clay Matthews. Packers-Vikings free pick: Vikings +3

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints

  • Seahawks-Saints Date: Sunday, November 21st at 4:05 pm on FOX
  • Seahawks-Saints Point Spread: Saints -12
  • Seahawks-Saints Over-Under Odds: 44.5
  • Seahawks-Saints Spread Pick: Seattle is rarely good away from home…but they did pound Arizona last week in Arizona. Granted, the Cardinals aren’t anywhere near as good as New Orleans, but it does make me pause and consider this game. The Saints have been inconsistent on offense this year, but should get Reggie Bush back coming off of the bye. With Seattle’s terrible pass D, I expect Drew Brees and the Saints to explode in Week 11, and the Saints have given up only 6 TD passes all year, meaning Seattle will probably have a hard time coming back. Seahawks-Saints free pick: Saints -12

Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams

  • Falcons-Rams Date: Sunday, November 21st at 4:05 pm on FOX
  • Falcons-Rams Point Spread: Falcons -3
  • Falcons-Rams Over-Under Odds: 43
  • Falcons-Rams Spread Pick: What we have here is a classic case of a road team that plays much better at home being favored against a home team that plays much better at home. Play this game in the Georgia Dome and I think Atlanta wins by double digits. Play it in St. Louis and they’ll have to scrape and claw just to get a win by 1 point. Falcons-Rams free pick: Rams +3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

  • Buccaneers-49ers Date: Sunday, November 21st at 4:05 pm on FOX
  • Buccaneers-49ers Point Spread: 49ers -3
  • Buccaneers-49ers Over-Under Odds: 41.5
  • Buccaneers-49ers Spread Pick: San Francisco is playing much better now that Troy Smith is in at QB. He has given them a spark, and the 49ers defense is playing more consistently as well. Still, I don’t know that I trust San Francisco enough to lay three points. Tampa Bay has beaten the mediocre and bad teams this year and only run into trouble against good teams. San Francisco is not a good team, meaning the smart money is on the Bucs and points. Buccaneers-49ers free pick: Bucs +3

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

  • Colts-Patriots Date: Sunday, November 21st at 4:15 pm on CBS
  • Colts-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -3
  • Colts-Patriots Over-Under Odds: 50.5
  • Colts-Patriots Spread Pick: How much fun is this game every year? I love it. New England looked awful two weeks ago and great in Week 10. Indy has really been struggling on offense lately and the injuries may be taking their toll. In New England, the advantage here is to the Patriots, but it will be a close, back-and-forth game. I think Indy finds a way to keep it closer than a field goal, but I expect a Pats victory. Colts-Patriots free pick: Colts +3

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Giants-Eagles Date: Sunday, November 21st at 8:20 pm on NBC
  • Giants-Eagles Point Spread: Eagles -3
  • Giants-Eagles Over-Under Odds: 48.5
  • Giants-Eagles Spread Pick: This spread tells you that the oddsmakers think the Giants and Eagles are right about even, with Philly getting three points for being at home. And that sounds about right to me. Michael Vick is the best quarterback (no qualifier necessary) in the NFL right now, and the Giants are coming off of a very poor performance against the Cowboys. I think Steve Smith being out hurts their offense, and there is no telling what the Eagles could do to a D that allowed Jon Kitna and the Cowboys to look competent. I’m going to ride Vick and the Eagles in this one. Giants-Eagles free pick: Eagles -3

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

  • Broncos-Chargers Date: Monday, November 22nd at 8:30 pm on ESPN
  • Broncos-Chargers Point Spread: Chargers -10
  • Broncos-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 50.5
  • Broncos-Chargers Spread Pick: Do you trust the Chargers and their leaky special teams to win a division game by double digits? I don’t. Denver is far from a good team, but they will be riding high with confidence after trashing Kansas City last week. With San Diego getting some guys healthy, Philip Rivers should have more weapons on offense this week, but will their chemistry and continuity be off? I don’t know, but there are enough questions that I’m not giving Denver the points to take the Chargers. Broncos-Chargers free pick: Broncos +10

About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.


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