Bettors Guide: NFL Week 10 Picks, Point Spreads, and Over-Under Odds

Rock bottom.

That’s what I’m hoping my 5-6-1 record in Week 9 represents. It marks the third straight week that I’ve been one game under .500 after an absolutely torrid start to the season. Luckily I built up a nice cushion so that I’m still 15 games over .500 (67-52-6), but this sub-.500 BS has to stop.

No more rambling. Time to pick some winners.

nfl week 10 picks - point spreads - over-under odds - free picks against the spread atsA couple of quick things to keep in mind:

  • All times are ET.
  • If you want updated point spread info, or some expert advice as you make your weekly picks, below are a few helpful links.
  • DocSports: NFL Odds
  • DocSports: NFL Picks

And with all that said, here is your Week 10 Bettor’s Guide, complete with free spread picks for each Week 10 game, as well as the over-under odds for each matchup.

NFL Week 10 Bettor’s Guide

Point Spreads – Free Picks ATS – Odds – Over-Unders

The following teams are on bye in Week 10:

  • San Diego Chargers
  • New Orleans Saints
  • Oakland Raiders
  • Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

  • Ravens-Falcons Date: Thursday, November 11 at 8:20 PM on NFL Network
  • Ravens-Falcons Point Spread: Falcons -1
  • Ravens-Falcons Over-Under Odds: 43
  • Ravens-Falcons Spread Pick: I don’t have the stats in front of me (nor do I analyze stats before making these picks…you know that) but I believe Matt Ryan is now 615-1 at home as a starter. Maybe it’s not quite that good, but it’s close. His counterpart Joe Flacco is also known for being better at home than he is on the road. Atlanta is at home, and they are favored by one. The smart money says the Falcons will win this game, and you can’t win by less than that. I’ll take Atlanta. Ravens-Falcons free pick: Falcons -1

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

  • Titans-Dolphins Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Titans-Dolphins Point Spread: Titans -1.5
  • Titans-Dolphins Over-Under Odds: 42.5
  • Titans-Dolphins Spread Pick: The Dolphins are winless at home this season, in large part because they’ve played a murderer’s row of the AFC’s best in their home building. Well guess what? Tennessee is another team that is among the AFC’s best, and they just added Randy Moss to their passing game. After watching Miami flounder trying to catch up to Ray Rice last week, I shudder to think what Chris Johnson will do to them. Vince Young is playing efficient, confident football, while his counterpart Chad Henne is not. The Dolphins have to win at home sometime this year (right?), but I’m not too confident it will happen this weekend. Titans-Dolphins free pick: Titans -1.5

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

  • Jets-Browns Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Jets-Browns Point Spread: Jets -3
  • Jets-Browns Over-Under Odds: 37.5
  • Jets-Browns Spread Pick: So, the Browns install 3rd round pick Colt McCoy at QB and promptly win in New Orleans and at home against New England after losing his first start to Pittsburgh. It might be time to start taking these Browns seriously, which I already did as I picked them to cover against New England last week. The difference between the Patriots and Jets is that New York actually has a good defense. New England’s defense is terrible, and smoke and mirrors isn’t going to stop Peyton Hillis. The Jets’ highly ranked run D will contain Hillis, however, and the Jets have the secondary and pass rush to make Colt McCoy’s life a little less pleasant than it’s been. Jets-Browns free pick: Jets -3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

  • Bengals-Colts Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Bengals-Colts Point Spread: Colts -8
  • Bengals-Colts Over-Under Odds: 47.5
  • Bengals-Colts Spread Pick: The Colts don’t lose often, and it always seems like they step it up the week after a loss. With so many offensive players hurt, it would be understandable if Peyton and Co struggled to score, but they continue to hum along like a well-oiled machine. Cincinnati, however, is pretty much the T.O. Show and not much else. After losing a huge Monday Night battle to Pittsburgh that effectively ended their playoff chances, I look for a lethargic effort from a Bengals team that’s never been described as mentally tough. Bengals-Colts free pick: Colts -8

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Texans-Jaguars Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 PM on CBS
  • Texans-Jaguars Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5
  • Texans-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 50
  • Texans-Jaguars Spread Pick: See that over-under? 50! That’s a big number, and I’d be tempted to take it. This game features two of the worst defenses in the NFL going up against offenses that have proven they can take advantage of good matchups. Both teams have been up and down, so it’s hard to know what to expect. Jacksonville is coming off a bye and at home, where they usually play best and where they beat the Colts earlier this year. I’ll go with the well-rested home team not coming off a crushing loss. Texans-Jaguars free pick: Jaguars -1.5

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

  • Vikings-Bears Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Vikings-Bears Point Spread: Vikings -1
  • Vikings-Bears Over-Under Odds: 40
  • Vikings-Bears Spread Pick: This is a very tough game to figure. I think, quite strongly, that Minnesota is the better team. Of course, I’ve thought that a lot of times this year and the Vikings haven’t won many games. Similarly, I haven’t been high on the Bears, yet they have found ways to win. With a one point spread, this game really comes down simply to who you think will win. With Minnesota finding its pass rush again last week (6 sacks) and the Bears always ripe for sacking, I like the desperate Vikes to get a huge W at Soldier Field. Vikings-Bears free pick: Vikings -1

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Panthers-Buccaneers Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Panthers-Buccaneers Point Spread: Buccaneers -7
  • Panthers-Buccaneers Over-Under Odds: 35
  • Panthers-Buccaneers Spread Pick: I’m not a big fan of this spread. I don’t like giving any team in the NFL 7 or more points, especially a team I don’t necessarily trust in Tampa Bay. However, the Bucs have proven all year that they can take care of the crappy teams on their schedule, and it looks like Jimmy Clausen will be playing QB for the Panthers. And if not him, the even less heralded Tony Pike will be taking snaps. With Josh Freeman looking more and more like a star in the making, I’m going trust a Bucs team that has everything to play for over a Panthers team that doesn’t. Panthers-Bucs free pick: Buccaneers -7

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

  • Lions-Bills Date: Sunday, November 14 at 1:00 pm on FOX
  • Lions-Bills Point Spread: Bills -3
  • Lions-Bills Over-Under Odds: 42.5
  • Lions-Bills Spread Pick: Wow. An 0-8 team is favorite by three points. You don’t see that very often. Of course, when their opponent is 2-6 and dealing with the very real possibility of Drew Stanton starting for them at QB, such a spread makes some sense. To their credit, Buffalo has been playing good football lately. They just haven’t been able to figure out how to get a win. With Stafford hobbled, and Jahvid Best injured, this could and should be the week Buffalo gets their first win. Lions-Bills free pick: Bills -3

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

  • Chiefs-Broncos Date: Sunday, November 14 at 4:05 PM on CBS
  • Chiefs-Broncos Point Spread: Chiefs -1
  • Chiefs-Broncos Over-Under Odds: 42
  • Chiefs-Broncos Spread Pick: Damnit, another 1 point spread in which the home team is one giving the point. Denver has been terrible this year, but they are coming off a bye and will be rested. The Chiefs are coming off of a physical game against Oakland in which they probably played better but lost. I’m a big fan of the Chiefs, but I do not necessarily trust Matt Cassel. I feel like Kansas City has a letdown performance coming at some point, and with so many young guys, Week 10 could be about when they start to hit the wall. I’ll roll the dice that the rested Broncos can make enough noise through the air to steal a home win. Chiefs-Broncos free pick: Broncos +1

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

  • Rams-49ers Date: Sunday, November 14 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • Rams-49ers Point Spread: 49ers -6
  • Rams-49ers Over-Under Odds: 38.5
  • Rams-49ers Spread Pick: Do you feel comfortable giving six points to anyone when you’re 2-6 and Troy Smith is our quarterback? I know that St. Louis has not been nearly as good on the road this year as they’ve been at home, but still. San Francisco has been wildly inconsistent and tries everything it can to give games away. The Rams will keep it close. Jump on this line before it changes. Rams-49ers free pick: Rams +6

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

  • Cowboys-Giants Date: Sunday, November 14 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • Cowboys-Giants Point Spread: Giants -14
  • Cowboys-Giants Over-Under Odds: 45
  • Cowboys-Giants Spread Pick: A tough game to figure. Dallas has been awful, getting slaughtered by the Giants, the Jags, and the Packers in three straight games. Could they possibly loss by two or more touchdowns again? Of course they could, especially to the hottest team in the NFL. Maybe Jason Garrett will be able to find the magic formula to get the Cowboys playing good football again, but I’ll wait to see it before I believe it. Until then, I’ll expect Eli and his terrific wide receiver trio to have a field day against Dallas’ terrible safeties. Cowboys-Giants free pick: Giants -14 Okay…you know what, As soon as I typed out Giants -14 I had a bad feeling about it. So I’m changing to Cowboys +14. Why? Gut feeling, and a gnawing thought that the firing of Wade Phillips might wake a few of the Cowboys players up and at least make them play with a little more pride. Even if they don’t, the Giants sometimes fall asleep at the wheel when they have a big lead. Perhaps garbage time points bring Dallas within 14. Either way, I gotta go with my gut here. Cowboys +14. (And I’ll leave this typed just as is so you can see my entire thought process on this game.)

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

  • Seahawks-Cardinals Date: Sunday, November 14 at 4:15 PM on FOX
  • Seahawks-Cardinals Point Spread: Cardinals -3
  • Seahawks-Cardinals Over-Under Odds: 41
  • Seahawks-Cardinals Spread Pick: All I know is that I don’t want to be anywhere near a TV that has this game on. It will be ugly, especially if Matt Hasselbeck is not ready to play and the QB matchup is Derek Anderson v Charlie Whitehurst. Seattle is falling apart right now, and showing why so many people (me included) didn’t buy into their hot start. Arizona is doing all it can to compensate for severe QB issues and came damn close to beating Minnesota last week. I like the Cardinals to take out some frustration on Seattle. Seahawks-Cardinals free pick: Cardinals -3

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Patriots-Steelers Date: Sunday, November 14 at 8:20 PM on NBC
  • Patriots-Steelers Point Spread: Steelers -4.5
  • Patriots-Steelers Over-Under Odds: 45
  • Patriots-Steelers Spread Pick: New England looked bad against Cleveland last week. Really bad. And their defense is nowhere near ready for playoff football. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, got a hard-fought win on Monday Night Football, and usually seems to rise to the occasion on PrimeTime (Halloween in New Orleans notwithstanding.) Right now, I don’t have much faith in New England to contain its opposition, and it’s asking too much for Tom Brady to put up 24+ points when his weapons on offense are BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez. That’s not exactly the ’92 Cowboys. That said, the Steelers have a short week and Bill Belichick will have his young team’s attention. I don’t know if they’ll win, but I do think it’ll be a close game. Patriots-Steelers free pick: Patriots +4.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

  • Eagles-Redskins Date: Monday, November 15 at 8:30 PM on ESPN
  • Eagles-Redskins Point Spread: Eagles -3
  • Eagles-Redskins Over-Under Odds: 41.5
  • Eagles-Redskins Spread Pick: It’s the second edition of the Donovan McNabb Bowl. In the first game, McNabb played poorly but the Redskins pulled out the W. In this week’s episode, Michael Vick is under center against one of the league’s worst passing defenses. With Washington having QB issues and RB issues, I don’t think there is any way the Skins can put up enough points to keep up with Vick and Co. Eagles in a rout. Eagles-Redskins free pick: Eagles -3

About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.


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