Preview and Prediction for Thursday Night’s Saints-Vikings 2010 NFL Regular Season Opener

Ladies and gentlemen, we are a little more than two days away from the kickoff of the 2010 NFL season. And considering there may not be a 2011, I think it would behoove us all to cherish every moment of professional football we get this year.

The first moment ripe for cherishing is Thursday night’s season kickoff game between the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints and the two-time offseason drama champions of the entire sports world, the Minnesota Vikings.

These two teams met in the NFC Title Game last year, with the Saints winning courtesy of the Vikings turning the ball over like rookie point guards. Who will win the rematch in the Superdome on Thursday night? Let’s analyze and predict.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Primer

• Vikings-Saints Date: Thursday, September 9
• Vikings-Saints Location: The Superdome in New Orleans, LA
• Vikings-Saints Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Vikings-Saints TV Network: NBC
• Vikings-Saints Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Vikings-Saints Point Spread: Saints -4
• Vikings-Saints Over-Under Odds: 49
• Tickets: Vikings-Saints tickets from StubHub

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Preview

The NFL hit a home run making this the first game of the season. Even if Brett Favre hadn’t come back (yeah, right) this would have been the best choice; Favre being back just shoots into the stratosphere of compelling matchups, mainly because of how last year’s battle between these two teams went down.

In case you’ve forgotten how last year’s Vikings-Saints affair went, here is all you need to know: the Saints won 31-28 in overtime, but…

• Minnesota outgained them 475-257
• Minnesota had 31 first downs to the Saints’ 15
• Minnesota ran 82 plays to the Saints’ 55
• The Saints were penalized for more than double the yards Minnesota was
• New Orleans won the turnover battle 5-1

Ah ha…and that last little bullet is the most important: a four turnover difference.

What people often fail to remember though, in their haste to blame Adrian Peterson for all the turnovers, is that AD fumbled twice but didn’t lose either. Percy Harvin, Brett Favre, and Bernard Berrian were the culprits. So we can lay off AD. In fact Peterson was the best player in the game. He rumbled for 122 yards on 25 carries, scored 3 TDs, and generally looked like a man possessed to carry his ancient QB to the Super Bowl.

But the ancient QB did what the ancient QB is wont to do. He threw a game-losing interception during the most pivotal drive. Damn. Dream season ended, dominant performance wasted, and bedlam in the French Quarter.

Now let’s talk this year. Favre is back, Peterson is back, most of the Vikings’ receiving corps is back (minus Sidney Rice..more on this in a minute), and they still have a great defense. The Saints, on the other hand, while they have most everybody back, surely will be feeling the lingering effects of a Super Bowl hangover. So the Vikings should dominate again right? And this time hold onto the football and win?

As Lee Corso might say, not so fast my friend.

This is the first game of the season, which means we cannot predict a damn thing.

Remember that game a few years ago when Buffalo spanked New England 31-0 on opening day, but then the Bills went on to suck and the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl? Yeah. Well that’s how these things sometimes go. Teams are still coalescing in Week 1 and often we get incomplete pictures. Week 2 is when we can really start to judge a team because they’ve had a real game, have gone through the film, made adjustments, and been through a battle with this year’s 53-man group.

I don’t like this fact from a Vikings perspective.

Brett Favre has only been around for a couple of weeks now. And yeah, I know he was there last year, but the Vikings also had the pleasure of easing into their 2009 season with games against the Browns and the Lions. If you’ll remember, Adrian Peterson carried the team early (especially in Week 1) while Favre got his rhythm back. That can’t be the case this year. Taking on the defending champs in the toughest backyard in football is no picnic, yet that is the Vikings’ first test of 2010.

When Drew Brees is on the opposite sideline, you can’t beat him in his house with Adrian Peterson and a game manager. Brett Favre will need to be Brett Favre (the good version), but I wonder if he’s ready to do that in Week 1.

Also, don’t forget that Favre will have to do without his #1 receiving target from 2009, Sidney Rice. How much can receiver mean? I think a lot, especially considering the daily uncertainty surrounding Percy Harvin (who is expected to be just fine for Week 1).

In last year’s game, Bernard Berrian caught 9 passes for 102 yards and led the team with 12 targets, undoubtedly because the Saints focused on stopping Rice, which they did for the most part (4 rec, 43 yards, 1 TD). Without Rice, can Berrian and Harvin function effectively in the #1 and #2 slots? I’m not sold that either is suited for those roles.

Plus, Berrian’s nickname is “B-Twice”. That is laughably lame. I can’t put my faith in anyone with such a nickname. (For the record, my nickname in high school was Hot Rod, so make fun at your leisure.)

Then there is the departure of the underappreciated Chester Taylor. While Peterson gets the pub for his incredible running ability, Taylor was the man charged with picking up blitzes and protecting Favre on third downs. Now that role will have to go to Peterson or rookie Toby Gerhart. While the Saints did get to Favre often last year with Taylor, making this perhaps seem insignificant, I don’t see how the Vikings will be any more equipped this year to deal with Gregg Williams’ inevitable pressure. That could mean problems.

Finally, I think homefield advantage plays a huge role on Thursday night, especially if the Saints get off to a good start. Considering they have their full complement of offensive weapons, and Drew Brees still pulling the trigger, why shouldn’t they? Yes, the Vikings have a good defense and they somewhat contained the Saints last year, but Drew Brees still found a way to go 17-31 for 197 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. In the comfort of his own home and wanting to set the right tone for 2010, I think Brees and head coach Sean Payton will bring the offensive goods Thursday night.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Prediction and Spread Pick

If the Saints can get ahead early, and then just pin their ears back and come after Favre, it could ugly early. No Rice and little training camp means the timing of the Vikings’ passing offense could be compromised. If the Saints’ blitz can further compromise it, the Vikings will need a Herculean effort from Adrian Peterson just to make it a game. While AD is capable, I don’t like my odds if that is the case.

Over the last couple of weeks I have consistently said in multiple articles that I have a bad feeling about this game for the Vikings. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind. I don’t trust their coach, I don’t trust the receivers they head into Thursday night with, and I don’t trust that Brett Favre is ready for Primetime in the Superdome…yet.

I worry a little bit about a Super Bowl hangover causing the Saints to come out flat…but then I remember that this is their first game at home since winning the Super Bowl. The Saints may yet have to deal with a hangover during the dog days of the season, but I don’t think it will manifest itself in Week 1 in front of their rabid home fans.

The Saints win, and it’s not all that close.

Vikings-Saints prediction: Saints 27 | Vikings 13

Vikings-Saints spread pick: Saints -4

Vikings-Saints over/under pick: Under

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* – Brett Favre photo credit: ReservationsForSix.com

* – Bernard Berrian photo credit: Getty via Kevin Kaseviharn on Zimbio

* – Drew Brees photo credit: UPI /Dave Fornell via UPI.com

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