Fantasy Football Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Update 9/10/10: Get the latest injury update on Beanie Wells as well as injury updates on Knowshon Moreno, Michael Bush, and more.

Does it seem to you like the first full Sunday of regular season NFL action is still a ways off?

I don’t know why, but it does for me. Then I look at the calendar and – surprise, surprise! – we’re just a week away from a full slate of games on Sunday and Monday, and a mere five days away from the official kickoff of the 2010 season in the Superdome.

And that means it is time to start thinking about your Week 1 lineups.

As I did every week last year, I will once again be delving into the matchups to highlight guys you might normally start who you should think about sitting and, on the flip side, guys you might normally sit who you should think about starting.

Update: A new fantasy football feature on MSF this year is yours truly and his bearded mug on YouTube yapping about fantasy strategy. View Episode 1 of Fantasy Football 3-2-1 here, and you can view the recently posted Episode 2 right here:

Now remember: the advice here is not absolute; by that I mean that just because I say “sit Brett Favre” doesn’t mean I’d start Derek Anderson over him. It just means that you should downgrade Favre from what you’d normally expect, and if you have a reasonable backup option – like, say, Alex Smith – you might want to consider starting him.

I know you know this, but I just feel better saying it so we’re all on the same page.

Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Start ‘em QB: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay)

I’m not as high on Kolb as many are, mainly because I just don’t trust quarterbacks who have only started a handful of games. That said, the Packers have a banged up secondary that is essentially Charles Woodson and some scrubs, and we know that Andy Reid will not be shy about letting his young QB air it out.

Also in Kolb’s favor from a fantasy perspective is the fact that Green Bay just might have the most explosive offense in football – Indy and New Orleans included – which means that Kolb and the Eagles will have to throw early and often to keep up. That’s a great recipe for fantasy success, even for a newbie like Kolb.

Kevin Kolb Week 1 projection: 325 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• Don’t be scared about starting Philip Rivers even with Vincent Jackson out. Kansas City is not great on defense and Malcolm Floyd will step right in. Rivers is fine.
• Jay Cutler is going to be up and down this season, and he may get whacked a few times by Ndamukong Suh, but you have to start him against Detroit.
• Alex Smith is a sneaky Week 1 play. Seattle is bad all around and the 49ers have an underrated offense with passing game play makers like Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, and Josh Morgan.

Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at New Orleans)

I’m glad I don’t own Brett Favre in any leagues because he absolutely terrifies me this year. Another year of age, his apparent reluctance to return, the loss of Sidney Rice, the mysteries of Percy Harvin…I could go on and on.

Still, despite all of that, logic suggests that Favre will still be a worthwhile fantasy starter most weeks. He might not be as good as last year, but even 85-90% of that is still pretty good.

But Thursday night against New Orleans? In what is sure to be a raucous Superdome? I believe Senate Minority Leader John Boehner said it best: Hell no!

It’s become a cliche this offseason to say that the Saints showed everyone the “blueprint” for how to beat Old Favre: knock him around. But it’s a cliche because it’s true. And while the Saints weren’t exactly splitting the atom in devising this strategy, it is surely what they will try again.

Without his favorite deep threat, with the ankle apparently still tender, and with a packed house of screaming New Orleansites against them, I see the Vikings just trying to get out of this game alive. There won’t be much fantasy goodness to be had for anyone in purple but AD.

Brett Favre Week 1 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• I have to admit, I’m a little worried about Tony Romo, and the fact that Dallas opens at Washington, a team that has played the Cowboys tough in recent years, worries me even more. The Cowboys offense is struggling and I’d like to see Romo get going before I confidently start him.
• I’m also worried about the other QB in that game, Donovan McNabb. He’s been hobbled, and the Cowboys can pressure the quarterback.
• Chad Henne is facing Buffalo, a team that cannot do much right but has one of the best secondaries in football.

Follow the link to the brand spanking new MSF Fantasy Sports site to see Jerod’s start/sit recommendations at RB, WR, TE, and D/ST. Also, you can ask your Week 1 lineup questions in the comment section there.

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