2010 PGA Championship Preview and a Thorough Tiger Analysis

This weekend marks Tiger Woods’ final chance to win a major in 2010. Based on his performance last weekend, however, nary a golf observer is holding out much hope that he can compete. In fact, for the first time in well over a decade, Woods is not the favorite in a tournament he has entered (Phil is).

Will being an underdog for really the first time in his career affect Tiger? Can he possibly turn his swing around in one week and turn in a competitive performance? Is this the week Tiger loses the #1 spot in the world golf rankings that has been his seemingly forever?

All of these questions and more will be answered this weekend. Here, we take a look at the current state of Tiger’s game and what it all means for the future; but first, everything you need to know about this weekend’s PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.

2010 PGA Championship Quick Preview

• PGA Championship Dates: Thursday, August 12 through Sunday, August 15
• PGA Championship TV Schedule: 30 hours in all, Thursday/Friday 1-8 PM ET time (TNT), Saturday/Sunday 11 AM-2 PM ET (TNT), 2-8 PM ET (CBS)
• PGA Championship Course: Whistling Straits (Straits Course) Haven (Kohler), Wisconsin, Par-72, 7,514 yards
• Whistling Straits Course Style: Links-style, modeled after venues in United Kingdom/Ireland, course sits along two-mile stretch of Lake Michigan
• Whistling Straits History: Course opened 1998, hosted 2004 PGA Championship, 2007 U.S Senior Open
• Whistling Straits Future Events: 2015 PGA Championship, 2020 Ryder Cup
• PGA Championship Field: 156 players
• PGA Championship Purse: $7.5 million
• Tournament Criteria: Former Champions (10), Winners of the Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship over past five years, Current Senior PGA Champion, top-15 and ties from 2009 PGA Championship, top-20 from PGA Professional National Championship, top-70 in official PGA money standings, members of the 2008 U.S./European Ryder Cup teams (automatic bid), winners of tournaments co-sponsored/approved by PGA Tour, alternates (Paul Azinger, Bob Tway, Robert Allenby, and Lee Westwood have withdrawn, a fifth alternate made the field since Bridgestone winner Hunter Mahan was already qualified), at-large invitations chosen by PGA of America (34 were given invites).
• 2010 PGA Championship Weather Forecast: Possible isolated storms Thursday through Saturday, temps expected in low 80′s Thursday-Saturday, sunny and upper 70′s for Sunday.
• Official 2010 PGA Championship Website
• PGA Championship Tee Times: First/Second round tee-times
• Ticket availability – ALERT!!!! PGA released 5,000 single-day tickets last week, you can order straight from the PGA site, tickets must be picked-up in Will Call. In addition, at least three ticket brokers have set up shop near the course, they can be found at Exit 128 off of Interstate 43.
• Other Attractions in area – NFL Pre-Season Football, Cleveland Browns v. Green Bay Packers, Lambeau Field, 7 PM, Saturday, August 14, ticket details here…

What’s Next for Tiger?

In case you didn’t hear, the golfing media along with Matt Drudge declared Tiger Woods PGA Tour career dead after finishing in next to last place in the Bridgestone Tournament at the Firestone course in Ohio.

Myself, I do not know what was more stunning: Tiger winning by 15 shots at Pebble Beach ten years ago; winning on one leg at Torrey Pines just two short years ago; or finishing 30 shots behind Hunter Mahan on a track in which TW previously won seven times.

And the media already had the tale of Tiger’s demise in the can, writing their leads as Tiger was struggling in Round 1 last Thursday.

Take this comment by Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel after Tiger’s final round on Sunday:

‘Woods is no longer a young phenom with boundless potential. In fact he’s aging fast, soon to be 35…’

If Tiger was a veteran NFL linebacker or and NBA player, and not a golfer, then yes 35 is an age where a professional finish line would be in sight. Golf is a little different though; golf is a game where a competitor isn’t truly retired until he is six feet under. Personally, I do not even consider Jack Nicklaus or Arnold Palmer as ‘retired’. In fact they rake in more money in golf-related ventures even today than most current players.

Obviously, Eldrick has hit a rough patch unlike anything he’s had to battle previously. What is forgotten though is that golf is a weird and cruel game, and at its highest level even the most talented can lose or find his game without notice.

I need not say Tiger has had a lot on his plate since November. Jane Velez-Mitchell on HLN only dedicated countless shows to the Woods’ saga over the winter. Spending time in rehab, not hitting the practice range, etc. It was even predictable in February that if Tiger did attempt to play a somewhat normal schedule that he may fall far short of the enormously high bar he himself has set competitively in the past decade plus. And Tiger probably didn’t have the preparation in regards to the new groove regulations that his opposition had.

Yes, I remember going to the checkout line, getting some last minute Thanksgiving stuff, and seeing that Enquirer cover with mild amusement. Then the next day everything hit the fan with Tiger wrecking his rig and his wife’s ‘heroic’ effort to get him out in a driveway escapade that I don’t even think former Broncos QB Brian Griese could manage in his prime. Right then the story took a life of its own, in fact setting a record of consecutive days making the New York Post cover previously set by something called 9/11.

Soon, 19 no longer had anything to do with eclipsing Jack Nicklaus. It became the number of alleged mistresses (and then some) that stepped forward. And it hasn’t been just the last nine months; Tiger no doubt spent recent years worrying about when the tabloids were going to spill the beans and change the world’s perception of him forever.

And don’t forget about the trick knee, and the 91 holes he needed over five days to finally dispatch Rocco Mediate at Torrey Pines in one of the most compelling performances in the history of golf. It was speculated at the time how much long-term damage Tiger may had done to himself physically while competing, and winning, over those five days.

If Tiger Woods goes the way of David Duval or Ian Baker-Finch, and his game goes away forever, he still has a legacy. He still makes the Mount Rushmore of golf (I say Tiger/Jack/Arnie/Bobby Jones, feel free to make your own revision). And 14 majors, if it ends right now, is still easily second all-time.

And yes, Tiger was nothing short of horrible last weekend at Firestone. But as a former college football coach named Mike Leach would say, that was last (freakin’) week.

Look, Tiger could miss the cut again at Whistling Straits. He may need the whole winter to clear his head and, in hindsight, I think he should have just taken this year off. Or Tiger could do fairly well, or even contend, or even win the silly thing. All I know is that golf is a four-letter word and nothing is more unpredictable.

And it isn’t like Tiger has been the only Tour golfer ever to at least be temporarily derailed by personal turmoil. Phil Mickelson in just the past year has had to deal with his wife and mother stricken with cancer. Kenny Perry decided to play through as his mother was terminally ill. Ernie Els has spent the last several years caring for an autistic son. Davis Love III had to deal with the grief of a family member who did himself in. Of course, most of the personal obstacles of the typical rank-and-file PGA member doesn’t get one percent combined compared to how Tiger is followed.

And then there is Steve Stricker, currently the #4 ranked golfer in the world, whose career appeared finished several years ago. He did not even qualify the last time the PGA Championship was held at Whistling Straits, which is in his home state. From 2003-2005 Stricker was ranked 188th, 151st, and 162nd on the money list. In 2003 Stricker was also age 36 and did not nearly have the pedigree of elite golfers at the time, except for 1996 when he finished fourth in earnings. What caused Stricker to slump so badly for three years?? And how did he rebound to make the top-ten of the World Rankings for 80 weeks since 2007, after he hit age 40? The only answer is: it’s golf.

Which brings me back to the subject of should Woods be considered washed up in 2011 at age 35? Is he on his way to being reduced to a latter-career Mike Tyson sideshow?

Well, here’s a quick sample of the current top-ten FedEx points list: #1 Ernie Els is 40; #2 Stricker is now 43; Jim Furyk 40; Justin Rose 30; Lefty is 40; Jeff Overton (who is by far the hottest player on Tour right now) is a pup at 27; Hunter Mahan is 28; Matt Kuchar 32; Ben Crane 34. And there are more new bloods coming through the ranks: Dustin Johnson is 26; Anthony Kim 25; Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler are the next big things at 21; and Camilo Villegas is 28.

Just going by that sample, Tiger is right around the median age at 34, that’s 27 in MLB or NBA player years. Has some tread left and should be far from finished. In my opinion, I feel Woods is going to need to re-tool and refine his game over time, not unlike a baseball pitcher who comes up with a blazing 98 MPH fastball early on but then has to rely on a slider and a cut-fastball in later years. I don’t think you will see the booming drives from Tiger that have left us in awe in the past. Course management will become more crucial, and TW has shown in the past he can excel in that part of the game as well.

Can Tiger get the four majors needed to tie Jack Nicklaus, or the five needed to eclipse the Golden Bear? Well no doubt the task is now more formidable. Winning 4-5 majors in a career, period, is usually enough to earn legend status. Tom Watson won eight majors, Arnold Palmer seven, Nick Faldo and Lee Trevino six, Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson won five, Lefty has won four, and then there’s poor Greg Norman who somehow only won two majors while throwing away numerous opportunities to win others.

If I were to put odds on it right now, I say it’s 50-50 that Tiger gets to 19. Without a doubt Woods’ skills have declined some, while the pool of those capable of being just as good or better than him has swelled. It’s not unlike what Jeff Gordon has gone through in NASCAR in recent years. It isn’t like Gordon’s skills or his team has completely diminished; it’s the competition getting stronger. Instead of being the man to beat each time he takes to the track, he is now just merely one of the contenders.

Tiger could also re-invent his public image. His penchant for saying choice words after bad shots is well documented. Get close to a NFL field or NBA court or any locker room and you’ll hear the cussing a lot more. In fact you hear it in most professions. Something goes wrong and someone yells ‘Fiddlesticks…’. I know I do myself; in fact, I’m calling the kettle black.

Though always charitable, Tiger would also be well served to connect with the spectators more often. We’ve seen it over the years with Phil Mickelson, some observers like to give him a ‘phony’ rap over it, but it has also made him the second most popular player on Tour. And Tiger could also take a cue from Phil in occasionally playing some of the ‘B’ level events over the course of a year.

Coincidentally, the Tour hinted this week that the top players in the future may be mandated to play certain events. I can’t see how they can do that, as players tend to pick and choose their schedules, and Tiger likes the competition and purse totals for the tournament in Dubai along with a few other worldwide events. That said, it also wouldn’t hurt if Tiger decided to play in Hartford or Houston once in a while. With many tournaments struggling for title sponsors, they could definitely use the boost.

Word out of Whistling Straits on Monday was that Tiger was welcomed by an enthusiastic gathering and didn’t even look half bad in practice. Maybe this is a turning point? The fans have seen Tiger get it from all angles since November, and now perhaps they want to help get him back on his feet. America is a forgiving nation, and if Tiger can return to form over the next few years, and win at least one more major along the way, he can easily find himself as a popular figure again.

Here’s for rooting for the legacy of Tiger to be rebuilt in this decade.

---

---

---