Earlier this week, I provided you with a few sleeper picks in the American League. These are players whose average draft positions are lower than I expect them to perform in 2010.
Today, I’m performing the exact same analysis, but for the National League.
Here are some potential NL sleepers that you should be targeting late in drafts or on the free agency wire if your draft is already completed.
Criteria
- Mixed Leagues – ADP must be 240 or greater
- AL / NL Only – ADP must be 120 or greater
NL Sleeper Pick:Â Chase Headley, 3B/OF, SD
- ADP Mixed #312, NL Only #131 Age:25
- Owned in: Deep Mixed, NL Only, Dynasty
Headley was the #32 ranked prospect in 2008 with Baseball America and he’s been slower to develop.  Much of that is playing out of position in LF and now with the trade of Kevin Kuzmanoff to OAK, Headley is back home at 3B.  Playing out of position can really get into some players heads.
I like the K/BB rate improvement last year, and the power should come with 20 HRs this year.  .285/20/85/10 isnt out of the question in 2010.  Headley has had a monster spring and his position plus draft status make him an incredible value.
NL Sleeper Pick:Â Lastings Milledge, OF, PIT
- ADP NL Only #192 Age:25
- Owned in: Deep Mixed, NL Only, Dynasty
Milledge was the #9 ranked prospect in 2006 when he played with the Mets, but hotdogging and laziness had the Mets turn sour on him and he was dealt for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Clearly a bad deal for the Mets at the time, and worse now that both players are no longer on the Mets.  Milledge was then dealt from the Nationals to the Pirates for Nyjer Morgan.
This is the year for Milledge – either he breaks through or he becomes a guy who will never live up to his potential.  I think he breaks through this year and become a stable guy in the OF for years to come.  A return to his 2008 numbers, but with a better batting average are the expectations and getting him this late in the draft is a steal.
NL Sleeper Pick:Â Franklin Morales, RP, COL
- ADP Mixed #332 , NL Only #164 Age:24
- Owned in: Deep Mixed, NL Only, Dynasty
You can see the theme here – I love going back and taking guys who were top 100 prospects but their value has been depressed  (Morales was #30 in 2007).  Morales started to show signs late last year that his role could be a dominant reliever with 7 saves down the stretch.  Now with Huston Street on the shelf and it looks like it could be a while, Morales inherits the closer role with a solid Colorado team.
The problem with Morales has always been the walks and he could kill your WHIP, but at this point in the draft you are buying saves so cheap that the ROI should be strong.
NL Sleeper Pick:Â Ian Desmond SS, WAS
- ADP NL Only #207 Age:24
- Owned in:Deep Mixed Leagues, NL Only, Dynasty
The Nationals did the right thing by announcing Desmond as the starter early.  Even though Cristian Guzman has a ridiculous contract, he is being relegated to the bench.  Desmond has had a nice spring and shown speed on the basepaths.  I can see Desmond delivering $10 value in 2010 with comparable numbers to Marco Scutaro and Orlando Cabrera last year.  The value with Desmond is also after 2010 when he starts to develop more power.
If he can become a 20/20 guy in the next 2 years with progression and a strong batting average, he will become a top tier SS in the NL for many years. I recently saw Desmond play in Spring Training and came away very impressed. He was the best player on the field for the Nationals (Dunn and Zimmerman were off).
NL Sleeper Pick:Â Jeff Clement, C/1B, PIT
- ADP NL Only #176 Age:26
- Owned in: Deep Mixed, NL Only
Ranked as the #33rd prospect  in 2006, Clement has been a bust as a top tier prospect with the Mariners, and was traded to the Pirates for Ian Snell.  Clement is benefitting from having C eligibility this year and the smart guys are picking up on that especially in Yahoo leagues.  He is a great pick in redraft leagues only.  He might land some C games as Doumit’s backup but chances are he won’t be a C in 2011.
NL Sleeper Pick:Â Jaime Garcia, SP, STL
- ADP NL Only – Not Drafted Age:24
- Owned in: NL Only, Dynasty
Starting pitchers with the Cardinals are always fantasy gold because of their pitching coach Dave Duncan.  He was able to make Kyle Lohse fantasy revelant!  Carpenter, Wainwright, Morris, and Piniero are some of the guys who have flourished in St. Louis over the years, and Garcia should be another one.    Throw in the fact he is in the NL Central and a ground ball machine, I really like Garcia this year for NL Only and Dynasty.  Next year at this time we could be looking at a pitcher drafted in the 15th round.
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* – Lastings Milledge photo credit: Scott Boehm/Getty Images via ESPN.com
