As mentioned in the NCAA Tournament Friday TV Schedule I just posted, today is a big day for the Big Ten. All five Big Ten teams that made the 2010 Big Dance play their first round games this afternoon and evening.
The conference has been much maligned in recent years, yet has a tremendous opportunity to assert itself with a strong first round performance. All the Big Ten needs to do is the exact opposite of what the Big East did yesterday.
The mighty Big East, renowned as the best conference in the nation, saw purported powerhouse Georgetown, along with Notre Dame and Marquette, go down in first round Thursday action. The conference’s lone winner, Villanova, needed some friendly officiating to escape being only the fifth #2 seed in history to lose in the first round.
The Big East still has teams like Syracuse and Pitt to play today, but a strong showing by the Big Ten’s Big Five today would obviously help the conference look much better in comparison.
Let’s quickly break down the schedule, assess what Big Ten fans should expect their conference today, and analyze why this is yet another day for Indiana fans to pull their hair out and lament what was…and what could have been.
#11 Minnesota v #6 Xavier
- Xavier-Minnesota Tip Time: 12:25 PM ET
- Xavier-Minnesota Location: Milwaukee, WI
- Xavier-Minnesota Announcers: Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel
This is a winnable game for the Golden Gophers, and they should have a tremendous amount of confidence coming off of their strong run in the Big Ten Tournament, plus the fact that both #11 seeds that played yesterday beat their 6th seeded opponents.
The Gophers should have the edge down low, where Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson give Minnesota a pair of twin towers that can rotate, stay fresh, and mitigate foul issues. Where Minnesota will need to really excel is in the backcourt. Xavier has guys in Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford who are very good all around players and will need to be contained.
Tubby Smith is an experienced tournament coach and I think he’ll have Minnesota ready to go. They just may not be talented or consistent enough to pull off the W.
My Minnesota-Xavier prediction: Xavier wins, but Minnesota gives them a rough go of it.
#4 Purdue v #13 Siena
- Siena-Purdue Tip Time: 2:30 PM ET
- Siena-Purdue Location: Spokane, WA
- Siena-Purdue Announcers: Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
This is one of the more enigmatic games of the day. Amazingly, I do not think many people would consider it an upset if 13th seeded Siena beat the Boilermakers. Siena has been a trendy upset pick all week as people cannot shake the Boilermakers’ awful showing in the Big Tournament out of their heads.
I say shake it out because I think we will see a much better team today. While Purdue is no longer a Final Four threat without Robbie Hummel, this is still a team that has many of the fundamentals for tournament success in place: experienced guards, a big man who controls the paint, a defensive-oriented approach, the ability hit open shots, previous tournament success, etc.
Yes, Siena has won games in the last two tournaments, and yes it could be argued that they are seeded too low and Purdue is seeded too high. Still, despite my Hoosier devotion, I have a lot of faith in Matt Painter as a coach and I have seen too many gritty performances from this Purdue team to count them out this easily.
My Purdue-Siena prediction: Led by E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, Purdue survives and advances.
#4 Wisconsin v #13 Wofford
- Wofford-Wisconsin Tip Time: 2:50 PM ET
- Wofford-Wisconsin Location: Jacksonville, FL
- Wofford-Wisconsin Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
I don’t know a whole lot about Wofford, but I do know a lot about Bo Ryan; and if you don’t know much about Ryan, just know that he is perhaps the most underrated basketball coach in America.
Also know this, before you start thinking that this will be another 13 over 4 upset: Ryan has taken Wisconsin to the tournament eight straight years. Only once (2006) has he failed to make it out of the first round.
While the Badgers play a plodding, slow-tempo style that can allow teams to hang around if they make shots, the Badgers also do not beat themselves and, as usual, have very good guards and tough, physical inside presences.
My Wisconsin-Wofford prediction: Pick against Bo Ryan in the first round at your peril; I won’t do. Wisconsin wins with relative ease.
#5 Michigan State v #12 New Mexico State
- New Mexico State-Michigan State Tip Time: 7:20 PM ET
- New Mexico State-Michigan State Location: Spokane, WA
- New Mexico State-Michigan State Announcers: Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
A lot of people who have watched Michigan State stumble after an undefeated start to the conference season are very interested to see how they play today.
Tom Izzo is as consistently good a tournament coach as there is in America, and this year’s Spartan team features players like Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Draymond Green, and others who were big parts of last year’s run to the NCAA title game. Unfortunately for Sparty, this year’s team has also been wrought with internal issues, chemistry concerns, and the recent suspension of sharp-shooting guard Chris Allen.
I would not be surprised to see Michigan State win by 20, nor would I be surprised to see New Mexico State pick them off in another 12-5 upset. This game is truly like a box of chocolates…because, where Michigan State is concerned, we have no idea what we’re going to get.
My Michigan State-New Mexico State prediction: I have too much faith in Tom Izzo not to pick the Spartans here. It won’t be pretty, but they’ll win.
#2 Ohio State v #15 UC Santa Barbara
- UC Santa Barbara-Ohio State Tip Time: 9:35 PM ET
- UC Santa Barbara-Ohio State Location: Milwaukee, WI
- UC Santa Barbara-Ohio State Announcers: Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel
Ohio State won the Big Ten regular season, won the tournament, has one of the top two finalists for the Wooden Award, and a strong case could have been made that the Buckeyes deserved a #1 seed. So this should be a cake walk, right?
Yes, but…
What if Dallas Lauderdale gets in foul trouble? Ohio State is not a deep team and he is their main source of size. And what if guys like Jom Diebler don’t shoot well? UCSB would then be able to pay even more attention to Evan Turner.
These are legit question that Ohio State will have to face as the tournament progresses, but not today. When you have a player as dynamic as Turner, and surround him with diverse players who understand their roles, you have a damn good team and a good chance of advancing deep in the tournament.
My Ohio State-UC Santa Barbara prediction: The Buckeyes have some fatal flaws that will prevent them from winning it all, but they’ll dominate today.
Final Thoughts
If all of these predictions come to pass, the Big Ten will end up 4-1 in the first round and 80% of their tournament entrants into the Round of 32. All things considered, that would be a great first day for the conference. If Minnesota can somehow sneak past Xavier, and the chalk dictates the other matchups, it is not inconceivable that the Big Ten could have a 5-0 day.
Although, even if that happens, the conference cannot really be considered a undefeated winner. The reason, I am sad to say, is that Indiana fans like myself will have to spend another day being reminded of the collapse of our once proud program.
Did you see Ben Allen playing well for Saint Mary’s yesterday? He was once a Hoosier.
Did you catch that Ohio upset over Georgetown? You know little Armon Bassett, the guy with ice water in his veins knocking down shot after shot? He was once doing that in Bloomington.
The backcourt that powered Xavier to a 6th seed? Jordan Crawford was Armon Bassett’s teammate and Terrell Holloway was headed to IU before Kelvin Sampson got the boot.
The versatile inside-outside forward that complements Da’Sean Butler for West Virginia? Yeah, Devin Ebans was supposed to join Holloway at IU.
How do you think IU would have done this year with a lineup that looked like this:
- PG Terrell Holloway
- SG Armon Bassett
- SF Jordan Crawford
- PG Devin Ebanks
- C Ben Allen
Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that Maurice Creek and Christian Watford still chose IU, that would have created a pretty strong 7-man rotation. And if Tom Pritchard could have come off the bench in more of a reserve role, he would probably be a much more confident player. And…
Oh, to hell with it. The truth is that Bassett and Crawford were, by most accounts, both knuckleheads who needed to be jettisoned for IU to return to its more traditional program culture of, you know, actually going to class and not being a screw off. Holloway and Ebanks rightfully jumped ship when the coach that recruited them was fired ignominiously.
And while we have had to suffer through two rough seasons, Tom Crean is rebuilding the program the way it should be rebuilt: with hard working, high character guys who appreciate and understand what it means to be an Indiana basketball player. Bassett and Crawford never really understood this, which is why I wish them both well at their new schools. It’s not their fault that they never really should have been in Bloomington in the first place…at least not playing for a coach who demanded no accountability.
With all that said, it doesn’t mean it was 100% enjoyable seeing Bassett play so well for someone else last night. We IU fans can only hope that Jordan Hulls and Mo Creek are doing that to someone in the NCAA Tournament next year.
But this is this year, and it’s a very important day for the Big Ten. Hoosier fans everywhere should be getting behind their Big Ten brethren today because a strong showing by the conference makes IU look better by association. Anything that can help on the recruiting trail should be welcomed at this point. As they say, when the water rises, all the boats rise with it.
So go Gophers, Badgers, Buckeyes, Spartans, and…yes…even Boilers. If I can’t root for the Cream and Crimson, I can at least spread my rooting interests throughout the Big Ten family.
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* – Bo Ryan photo credit: AP Photo/Brian Kersey
* – Ralph Sampson III photo credit: AP photo via InfoForum.com
About Jerod Morris
