Sweet 16: Xavier-Kansas State Preview and Prediction

My good friends, you know me. I wear my emotions and my allegiances unabashedly on my sleeve.

If you follow MSF or if you follow me on Twitter, you know that I live and die (figuratively speaking…for the most part) by the success and failure of my Indiana Hoosiers. I grew up in an around Assembly Hall, I went to IU, I spoke passionately on the steps of the Hall to thousands of my peers the day Coach Knight got fired, and I will have cream and crimson running through my veins until the day I die.

So forgive me if I do not find it all that enjoyable to watch the Xavier Musketeers enjoy an NCAA Tournament run (next stop: Thursday night against Kansas State) while my Hoosiers wallow in the depths of 16 wins over two seasons.

Xavier’s backcourt of Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford, you might remember, should be showcasing their hardwood talents in Bloomington, not Cincinnati. At least, that was the plan under the Lying Snake Who Shall Not Be Named.

Then there were phone calls…and then there were rumors of marijuana use among many players…and then were F’s (and lots of them)…and then there were defections…and then there were releases granted from Letters of Intent…and then there was…

Oh to hell with it. F— you K.S. Yes, it’s two years later and I’m still bitter. F— you.

Let’s get on with the damn preview of two Sweet 16 teams not named Indiana.

Sweet 16: #2 Kansas State v #6 Xavier (West Regional)

• Kansas State-Xavier Date: Thursday, March 25
• Kansas State-Xavier Tip Time: 9:37 ET
• Kansas State-Xavier Location: Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT
• Kansas State-Xavier Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Kansas State-Xavier Spread: Kansas State -4
• StubHub: Xavier-Kansas State Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Tickets (both sessions)

Kansas State-Xavier Analysis

Next, let’s analyze this Sweet 16 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]

Here is how the numbers break down between Kansas State and Xavier:

Okay, I think I’ve composed myself enough now to actually produce some coherent, focused analysis.

Has any really good team flown more under the radar this year than Kansas State? I know that they have been ranked relatively well all year, and they got a #2 seed so they didn’t fly too far off the radar screen, but unless you are a Big 12 fan I bet that you have been surprised with how good the Wildcats have looked through their first two games of the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

This is a team with tremendous guards and a nasty streak that they get from their coach, rising star Frank Martin, which gives them a reputation similar to those early- to mid-90s Cincinnati teams under Bob Huggins (Martin’s mentor and close friend). Remember those teams? They may not have gone to class, but boy could they rebound, defend, and intimidate. Kansas State appears to have many of these same qualities (and I’m sure a greater focus in the classroom considering Martin’s background as a high school coach).

Looking at the win odds above, Kansas State appears to be about a 2:1 favorite to win. They are favored by 4.5, so this seems to make sense. And when you consider that three of Kansas State’s seven losses came to the tournament’s #1 seed (recently eliminated Kansas), that record starts to look more than slightly better than Xavier’s, especially considering the relative strength of the two team’s schedules.

Overall on offense, Kansas State wins a narrow 3-2 margin…and I mean narrow. The Wildcats are .01 better in points per possession than Xavier, which is the difference in one category. Defensively – and this surprised me – Xavier actually holds a 4-1 advantage over the Wildcats. (So maybe those comparisons to the UC aren’t perfectly apt after all…)

Ultimately, we can look at any number of stats to predict who might win this game, but I think it will come down to one factor that will decide who moves onto the Elite 8: who is Gus Johnson rooting for?

(Just kidding…although I am excited about the potential for this game to produce an epic Gus Johnson March Madness outburst.)

This game is going to come down to guard play. Both teams are led by their tremendous backcourts, and whichever backcourt rules the court on Thursday will lead their team to victory.

Kansas State is led by Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, a junior and senior respectively, who average a combined 35.5 points per game and who can absolutely get red hot. Case in point: Pullen’s explosion against BYU. Xavier is led by the aforementioned Crawford and Holloway who average about 32 points per game but who are only sophomores. Despite his youth though, Crawford is the most gifted scorer on the court, just as capable as Pullen is of completely taking a game over.

So who has the advantage in the backcourt? I’ll take Kansas State.

First, it’s the NCAA Tournament, the pressure with each game, I want the more experienced players on my side. K State has that. Second, Pulled and Clemente shoot better from the free throw line than Holloway and Crawford. This could be huge in a close game.

When all else is pretty much equal, give me the more experienced players who make a higher percentage of their foul shots. It’s by no means an exact prediction method, but I bet it wins a lot more than it loses come playoff time.

Xavier-Kansas Prediction: I know that there are other players on the court besides the guards. Kansas State has Jamar Samuels and Curtis Kelly both scoring in double figures while Xavier has Jason Love and Jamel McLean holding down the fort inside. This is close to a draw, with K State having perhaps a slight edge.

Give then the Wildcats’ slight edge in the backcourt, their slight edge in the frontcourt, plus their edge in the overall ruggedness of their regular season road to the tournament, I like Frank Martin’s crew to move on in a tight battle that should have us all enjoying the exuberant exclamations of Gus Johnson.

Kansas State 68 | Xavier 66

**********

* – Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway photo credit: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images via ESPN.com

* – Frank Martin photo credit: KC Confidential

---

---

---