Wow…well how ’bout them Boilermakers, who just may be the first #4 seed that has surprised most observers by doing…what they should do (based on their seed): make the Sweet 16.
With Robbie Hummel injured, many experts predicted Purdue to lose in round one to Siena. Once the Boilermakers got past that game, most expected them to succumb to a Texas A&M team that has been playing very well. (For the record, I picked Purdue to make it this far.)
However, led by ferocious, Hummel-esque productivity from Chris Kramer, plus terrific and timely interior defense by JaJuan Johnson, the Boilermakers won in overtime to set up a Sweet 16 battle with the Duke Blue Devils in Houston.
Let’s take a look at will undoubtedly be a tough, physical, probably ugly game between two very good teams.
Sweet 16 Preview: #4 Purdue v #1 Duke (South Region)
- Purdue-Duke Date: Friday, March 26th
- Purdue-Duke Iowa Tip Time: 9:57 ET
- Purdue-Duke Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX
- Purdue-Duke Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
- Purdue-Duke Spread: Duke -8
- StubHub:Â Purdue-Duke Tickets
- StubHub:Â South Regional Final Tickets
- StubHub:Â South Regional Tickets (both sessions)
Purdue-Duke Analysis
Next, let’s analyze this Sweet 16 matchup.
[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]
Here is how the numbers break down between Purdue and Duke:
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The win odds are, expectedly, in Duke’s favor pretty heavily. Offensively, the Blue Devils win five out of five categories over the Boilers, but only take three out of the five defensive categories. Without question, these are two of the most defensively imposing teams in America.
What separates Duke and Purdue is the offensive end of the court. Even with Robbie Hummel, the Boilermakers would be hard pressed to compete with the Blue Devils’ terrific trio of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith. Without Hummel, Purdue most likely will not have enough firepower to keep up with the Dukies.
To have a chance to win, Purdue will need another sterling effort from Chris Kramer, who scored 17 points and had 6 rebounds against Texas A&M. For the season, Kramer only averaged 6.4 points per game. Can he repeat his second round performance against Duke? Probably not.
Kramer is a “glue guy” whose contributions typically do not show up in the box score. If Purdue is going to make it to the Elite 8 and upset the #1 seed in the South Region, they will need Kramer’s contributions to be more of the box score variety, as they were in round two.
Of course, Purdue has already shocked many by overcoming Hummel’s loss to reach this point. So you doubt Matt Painter and his gritty team at your own risk…but obviously Siena and Texas A&M are not Duke. The Boilers will have to play even better than they played this weekend to have a shot at a W.
Purdue-Duke prediction: While the Blue Devils will have a time containing JaJuan Johnson inside, and the Purdue big man will make life difficult when Duke attacks the basket, the Scheyer-Singler-Smith trio should ultimately be able to shoot the Blue Devils into the Elite 8.
Duke 68 | Purdue 61
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* – Chris Kramer photo credit: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images via ESPN.com
About Jerod Morris
