Admit it: when you first saw Ohio State vs Tennessee you gut reaction was to think football. It’s okay, it was mine too.
But this year’s basketball Buckeyes and hard court Volunteers are proving that there is far more than football on their respective pigskin-obsessed campuses.
Thad Matta’s Buckeye crew is led by the nation’s best overall player, Evan Turner, and a short but stout bench that goes only 6-7 deep. Bruce Pearl’s Vols, on the other hand, are deeper but do not have a singular star on Turner’s level.
Let’s preview Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup in the Midwest Region between Ohio State and Tennessee.
Sweet 16: #2 Ohio State v #6 Tennessee (Midwest Region)
- Ohio State-Tennessee Date: Friday, March 26th
- Ohio State-Tennessee Tip Time: 7:07 ET
- Ohio State-Tennessee Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
- Ohio State-Tennessee Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
- Ohio State-Tennessee Spread: Ohio State -4.5
- StubHub: Ohio State-Tennessee Tickets
- StubHub: Midwest Regional Final Tickets
- StubHub: Midwest Regional Tickets (both sessions)
Ohio State-Tennessee Analysis
Next, let’s analyze this Sweet 16 matchup.
[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered byTeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]
Here is how the numbers break down between Ohio State and Tennessee:
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The win odds show the Buckeyes as about a 2 to 1 favorite. Considering their consistency this season, and the fact that they have the best player on the floor, this seems reasonable.
As you can see from Ohio State’s offensive rankings, they are one of the most efficient teams in the nation at putting the ball in basket, ranking 9th and 4th in points per possession and effective FG%, respectively. Tennessee’s offensive rebounding ability and slightly better free throw attempt per field goal attempt numbers make it a somewhat misleadingly close 3-2 offensive advantage for Ohio Sate.
Defensively, Tennessee is very strong, in large part because of their size and athletic ability at every position on the floor. The Vols hold a 3-2 advantage in the defensive categories.
So far this tournament, both Ohio State and Tennessee have played very well. The Vols had a tough battle with a very good San Diego State team in Round 1, then beat upstart Ohio rather handily in Round 2. Ohio State was able to dispose of UC Santa Barbara with ease in Round 1 and then followed Evan Turner’s near-triple double to a nine point win over Georgia Tech in Round 2.
I think this game has a chance to be one of the more entertaining and competitive of all the Sweet 16 matchups. Remember, this Tennessee team, despite a #6 seed and eight losses on the season, handed Kentucky one of their two losses this season. So they are capable and talented enough to beat anybody. (That the Vols later lost by 30 to Kentucky only confirms their inconsistency.
Tennessee has experience in seniors Wayne Chism, Bobby Maze, and J.P. Prince as well as junior Brian Williams. Sophomore Scott Hopson is a talented young player who leads Tennessee in scoring and will be counted on to bring his shooting touch on Friday.
He’ll have to, because it will take a great effort from Tennessee to beat Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have been terrific all season, especially when Evan Turner is in the lineup. He is a triple-double waiting to happen every night he takes the floor. It should go without saying that the team with the best player will always have a huge leg up in any basketball game. Check mark Buckeyes.
Ohio State is not just Turner though. Dallas Lauderdale will be a load for Williams to handle down low, and Tennessee must find Jon Diebler, a player who can really fill it up from outside. William Buford and David Lighty are tremendous and versatile complements to Turner on the wing.
Ohio State-Tennessee Prediction: The Buckeyes will have their hands full Friday night. They must be ready to weather the runs that Tennessee will go on, and then capitalize if and when the Vols get into a lull. And when all else fails, the Buckeyes have Turner to lean on. Ultimately, he will prove to be too much for Tennessee for handle and the Buckeyes will march onto the Midwest Regional Final.
Ohio State 78 | Tennessee 74
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* – Evan Turner photo credit: AP Photo via TimesUnion.com
* – Thad Matta photo credit: AP Photo/Michael Conroy via ESPN.com
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