If you had this as a Sweet 16 matchup in your bracket, my hat is off to you. I had Kansas playing Maryland…but such is the story of my bracket, and pretty much everyone else’s bracket, during one of the most unpredictable tournaments in NCAA history.
Northern Iowa, which has been one of the most underrated teams in America all season because it plays in the under-appreciated Missouri Valley Conference, gets a chance to slay another Goliath from a big conference when the Panthers take on Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans in the Sweet 16.
We’ll get you all the information you need to know, plus offer a prediction for what is sure to be a unpredictable game.
Sweet 16 Preview: #5 Michigan State v #9 Northern Iowa (Midwest Region)
- Michigan State-Northern Iowa Date: Friday, March 26th
- Michigan State-Northern Iowa Tip Time: 9:37 ET
- Michigan State-Northern Iowa Location: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
- Michigan State-Northern Iowa Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
- Michigan State-Northern Iowa Spread: Michigan State -1
- StubHub: Michigan State-Northern Iowa Tickets
- StubHub: Midwest Regional Final Tickets
- StubHub: Midwest Regional Tickets (both sessions)
Michigan State-Northern Iowa Analysis
Next, let’s analyze this Sweet 16 matchup.
[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]
Here is how the numbers break down between Northern Iowa and Michigan State:
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Looking at the five win odds, Michigan State has an advantage, with the simulated games giving Michigan State a 54%-46% edge. Tallying up the offensive and defensive numbers, Michigan State has the edge in four of the five offensive categories while Northern Iowa has the edge in four of the five defensive categories.
So based on the stats, you’d think Michigan State should have a slight overall edge entering this contest.
However, what these numbers do not take into account is the injury suffered Spartan PG Kalin Lucas in the team’s win over Maryland. The immediate post game report on the injury is that it is likely a torn Achilles’ tendon. An MRI will be done on Monday, but it does not look good.
Can Michigan State win without Lucas? Sure, they can. The Spartans were able to fend off a late rally by Maryland in the Round of 32 without their floor general.
However, if Northern Iowa was able to defeat #1 ranked Kansas with their superb point guard Sherron Collins, why should we expect that the Panthers will not be able to take care of an inconsistent Spartans team playing without its point guard?
Sure, Michigan State has Tom Izzo’s tournament experience to fall back on, plus the experience guys like Draymond Green and Durrell Summers gained during last year’s Final Four run, and we know that Michigan State’s ability to rebound is second to none in America. But to pick Michigan State – assuming that they have to play without Kalin Lucas – without more compelling reasons than these, would be disrespectful to a Northern Iowa team that has proven it deserves to be held in high regard.
The Panthers are a balanced, experienced team led by guys like Ali Farokhmanesh who clearly have no fear and will not be intimidated by Michigan State. Northern Iowa has four players who average 9.7 points or more per game but none who averages more than 12.0.
They are also one of the most defensively efficient teams in America, which could prove very problematic for Michigan State if Lucas is a no-go. The Spartans have struggled with turnovers all season, a problem that will obviously be exacerbated if their point guard is out.
Michigan State-Northern Iowa prediction: If Lucas were playing, I’d pick Michigan State to end the Cinderalla story of Northern Iowa. However, without Lucas, Northern Iowa’s defensive toughness will prove too much to overcome, even for Tom Izzo and the experienced Spartans.
(Note: If something changes regarding Kalin Lucas’ status, I’ll update this post.)
Northern Iowa 63 | Michigan State 60
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* – Tom Izzo and Kalin Lucas photo credit: AP Photo/Rajah Bose via Washington Post
* – Ali Farokhmanesh photo credit:Â Nelson Chenault, US Presswire via USA Today
About Jerod Morris
