Elite 8: Kentucky-West Virginia Preview and Prediction for East Regional Final

Last night, Kentucky disappointed everyone in America who is not a part of Big Blue Nation by knocking off 12th seeded Cornell in rather efficient, easy fashion. The Big Red played hard, but ultimately didn’t have the horses to run with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Co.

Kentucky’s victory, along with West Virginia’s second half dominance over Washington, sets up Saturday night’s marquee primetime Elite 8 matchup that will determine the East Regional representative in the Final Four.

As we know, every Kentucky victory is just one more that will ultimately have to be wiped from the books once John Calipari’s diabolical team-building methods are uncovered.  Will Big Blue Nation at least get enjoy their basketball house of cards for one more weekend? Or will the Huggy Bear and his Mountaineers travel west to Indianapolis for the Final Four?

Elite 8: #1 Kentucky v #2 West Virginia (East Region)

• Kentucky-West Virginia Date: Saturday, March 27
• Kentucky-West Virginia Tip Time: 7:05 ET
• Kentucky-West Virginia Location: The Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY
• Kentucky-West Virginia Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Kentucky-West Virginia Spread: Kentucky -4
• StubHub: Kentucky-West Virginia East Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: East Regional Final Tickets

Follow the link to view the complete Elite 8 TV schedule or to see our preview for the Butler-Kansas State game, Michigan State-Tennessee game, or Baylor-Duke game.

Kentucky-West Virginia Preview

Next, let’s analyze this Elite 8 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]

Here is how the numbers break down between West Virginia and Kentucky:

Before I give you my thoughts on this game, tell us who you think will win:

Kentucky-West Virginia Analysis

These are the closest win odds we’ve seen, which makes sense considering this game pits a #1 seed from a major conference against a #2 seed from a major conference. Interestingly, the win odds show us that #2 seeds actually win 52% of the time when facing #1 seeds. I would not have guessed that. Outside of this statistics, Kentucky has 5% or 8% advantage in the other categories.

Offensively, we have two pretty efficient teams in this one. Kentucky holds a 3-2 advantage in the offensive categories but both teams are in the top 15 in the nation in points per possession. Kentucky is a better effective field goal percentage, West Virginia turns the ball over less, and both teams attack the offensive glass. In fact, both Kentucky and West Virginia are in the top 6 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.

On the defensive side of the ball, Kentucky is outstanding. The Wildcats may be known for their high-flying offense, but they can lock teams down as well as anyone in the country. West Virginia was not a good defensive team early in the season, but as Bob Huggins said during his press conference last night, they have really improved defensively over the last 3-4 weeks. They’ll need to maintain every bit of that improvement if they want to contain John Wall and his henchmen.

As for rebounding, both teams are right around 29.5% when it comes to defensive rebounding, leading me to believe that neither team has a particular advantage on either the offensive or defensive glass. If one team can assert its dominance in this area, it could go a long way towards determining a winner.

When it comes to picking this game, regular readers of this site know that my heart will be completely on the side of West Virginia. I’ve hated Kentucky for as long as I can remember, and when they added Worldwide Wes as their coach — sorry, when they added John Calipari as their coach, it just took the hatred to entirely new levels.

That said, I have nothing against the Kentucky players. John Wall is as exciting, dynamic, and confident a player as I can remember in college basketball. He is fantastic and a joy to watch. DeMarcus Cousins has terrific skill for a guy his size.

And it’s not just those two. Eric Bledsoe may be the most underrated player in the America because of the huge shadows cast by Calipari, Wall, and Cousins. But is there a player anywhere who shoots with more confidence than Bledsoe? Oh, and then there’s Patrick Patterson, another very good all around player who has become underrated simply because there aren’t enough ratings to go around for all the highly rated players in Lexington.

This is what you expect when you bring in Worldwide Cal, and he certainly has delivered.

So while I will root against Kentucky with every fabric of my being, I certainly can appreciate the rare amalgamation of talent that Big Blue has assembled this year. It’s stunning. And for most teams that Kentucky plays, it is overwhelming. I do not, however, think that West Virginia will be overwhelmed.

What the Mountaineers will give up to Kentucky in explosive athletic ability and raw talent, they will make up for with experience, grit, and better free throw shooting, all of which can be tremendous assets in a one-and-done scenario. West Virginia will need to control tempo and reduce Kentucky’s transition opportunities, and their experience and toughness should help them do that.

Assuming West Virginia can keep the game close, this is a team that has the most important element necessary to win close games against good teams: a star with ice in his veins and skins on the wall. Da’Sean Butler is that star. He has made big shot after big shot this season and is the guy West Virginia looks to in key moments. Kentucky will undoubtedly look to make someone else beat them, but Butler is good enough to beat them anyway.

Kentucky-West Virginia Prediction: So with all that said, do I think West Virginia can actually come out of Saturday with a W and move on to Indianapolis? No, I do not. I hope I’m wrong, but Kentucky’s immense talent is just too intoxicating to pick against right now.

And while I will rip Calipari until the day he retires for being shady, sleazy, and lots of other negative “s” words, the man has proven that he can not only assemble freakishly talented basketball players, but that he can also get them to buy into playing defense as well.

Yes, much of Kentucky’s defensive prowess is a function of their players simply overwhelming opponents with athleticism, but many a good athlete and good offensive basketball player has been worthless on D. Give Calipari credit for leading a unit that plays both ends of the floor, despite the fact that four of them – four! – are likely lottery picks in this year’s NBA Draft.

West Virginia could do everything right and still lose this game. When you can say that, it’s to pick them. Talent doesn’t always win out in basketball, and especially not in college basketball…but it does win out most of the time. So I have to swallow some nasty medicine and pick the Wildcats to move on to the Final Four.

Kentucky 75 | West Virginia 68

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* – John Wall celebrating photo credit: KentuckySportsRadio.com

* – John Wall and Demarcus Cousins photo credit: NationofBlue.com

* – Bob Huggins gold suit photo credit: Digital Headbutt

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