Elite 8: Kansas State-Butler Preview and Prediction – West Regional Final

Kansas State won a thrilling 2OT Sweet 16 game over Xavier last night hours after Butler shocked many people outside of Indianapolis by defeating mighty Syracuse.

Those two wins set up Saturday’s Butler-Kansas State Elite 8 matchups that will determine the West Regional representative in the Final Four.

We have all the basic schedule schedule information below, plus a preview and prediction for which of these two teams will be heading to Indianapolis.

Elite 8: #2 Kansas State v #5 Butler (West Region)

• Kansas State-Butler Date: Saturday, March 27
• Kansas State-Butler Tip Time: 4:30 ET
• Kansas State-Butler Location: Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT
• Kansas State-Butler Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Kansas State-Butler Spread: Kansas State -4.5
• StubHub: Kansas State-Butler West Regional Final Tickets
• StubHub: West Regional Final Tickets

Follow the link to view the complete Elite 8 TV schedule or to see our preview for the Kentucky-West Virginia game, Michigan State-Tennessee game, or Baylor-Duke game.

Kansas State-Butler Preview

Next, let’s analyze this Elite 8 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are. (3-1 through first four games of Sweet 16)]

Here is how the numbers break down between Kansas State and Butler:

Before I give you my analysis and pick, tell me yours:

Kansas State-Butler Analysis

If you followed my Sweet 16 previews and the statistical breakdowns that I use, you should not be surprised by Kansas State’s relatively hefty margin in each of the win odds categories. These essentially go by seed, with the higher seed team from the bigger conference usually having the advantage.

This game is no difference as Big 12 representative Kansas State and its 3rd ranked schedule are more highly ranked than Butler for the criteria that ESPN’s bracket predictor looks at.

Of course, Syracuse was a prohibitive favorite over the Bulldogs as well, and we saw how that turned out.

Offensively, Kansas State has a 3-2 edge by category. The teams are relatively similar until it gets to offensive rebounding percentage. This appears to be the area where Kansas State holds a significant advantage over the Bulldogs as Kansas State grabs 40% of possible offensive rebounds, good for 4th in the nation. Clearly Matt Howard, Gordon Hayward and the rest of the Bulldogs are going to have to keep Frank Martin’s crew off the offensive glass.

Defensively, Butler holds a 3-2 advantage over Kansas State. Fortunately for Butler, their strongest defensive ranking is opponent offensive rebounding percentage, which at 25.8% is good for 19th in the nation. As just mentioned, the Wildcats are animals on the offensive glass. Whichever team plays to its strength more in this category will have a significant edge in this game.

Another key area to look at is defensive free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Kansas State is ranked a woeful 317th nationally in this category and it tells you that they a) foul too much and b) are not as disciplined defensively as they should be. Obviously too many shooting fouls either means teams are getting into the bonus early, they are getting to the basket against an out of position defense, or you are fouling jump shooters. None of these are good.

As Butler proved against Syracuse, its defense may be one of the more underrated factors in this tournament. The Bulldogs are not physically imposing, but they are more physical than people give them credit for. They also have guards who can pressure the basketball as well as a coach who knows how to get his team to control the tempo and pace of the game. Butler beat Syracuse on the strength of a great defensive effort and they will need to do the same to beat Kansas State.

Much has been made of Gordon Hayward’s ability, and rightfully so, but Butler is proving that is has underrated guards in Shelvin Mack, Willie Veasley, and Ronald Nored. None had particularly impressive stats during the year, but they have all stepped up big in the biggest moments during Butler’s run to the Elite 8.

And the Bulldogs will need all three guards to bring it Saturday night because opposing them will be perhaps the best backcourt in the nation: Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.

If you watched that Kansas State-Xavier game Thursday night, you know that Pullen is one of the most dead-eye, clutch shooters in college basketball. He and Clemente bring an energy and a confidence that is contagious and that makes Kansas State one of the more exciting teams to watch in college basketball. The Wildcats will also need Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels, and Dominique Sutton to stay out of foul trouble and control the glass.

Kansas State scores 80+ points per game and likes to run. Butler, as we saw Thursday night against Syracuse, wants to control the tempo of the game and make it a halfcourt battle. This strategy was successful against Syracuse, which never seemed to be able to get into an offensive rhythm.

If the Bulldogs can make this a halfcourt game, their superb man-to-man defense could make life difficult for Pullen and Clemente. Those two guys will get theirs throughout the course of the game, but the Bulldogs can make them work for it. And the harder Mack, Veasley, and Nored can make life for Pullen and Clemente, the better Butler’s chances of making it to Indianapolis.

Kansas State has to be drained from their double OT win against Xavier, whereas Butler had a relatively “easy” time with Syracuse. I don’t know how much of a factor this will be, but if it makes the Wildcats leave any jumpers or free throws short late, it could be the different between winning and losing a close game.

Butler-Kansas State Prediction: My head says Kansas State. If I were forced to put money on this game, I would probably put it on Kansas State. But I know I don’t know enough to really have any idea how these games will go, plus I don’t gamble on sports. Thus, this seems like a perfect time to pick with my heart, as well as my gut instinct, and every now and then you need to do that.

I picked Butler to lose in Round 1 in my original bracket. In my Sweet 16 preview I picked Syracuse to beat them. So while I have been rooting for Butler every step of the way, I’ve expressed no public faith in them whatsoever. Well, I am not going to be fooled again.

In conclusion, I offer you this prediction hoping that I do not jinx the Bulldogs. Something about the underdog from Indianapolis getting to play in the Final Four in Indianapolis, where basketball Cinderella stories were born, just seems too perfect…almost preordained.

I’m going with Butler.

Butler 69 | Kansas State 67

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* – Jacob Pullen photo credit: AP via CJOnline

* – Gordon Hayward excited photo credit: Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images via ESPN.com

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