Elite 8: Baylor-Duke Preview and Prediction – South Region

In a game that many people – me included – thought was going to close and competitive, Baylor absolutely trashed St. Mary’s in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite 8.

After a hard fought battle in the second game in Houston tonight, Duke prevailed to set up an intriguing contrast of talents and styles on Sunday night in the South Regional Final.

We have all the relevant information you need, plus a complete analysis and prediction for this compelling Elite 8 battle.

South Regional Final: #1 Duke v #3 Baylor

• Duke-Baylor Date: Sunday, March 28
• Duke-Baylor Tip Time: 5:05 ET
• Duke-Baylor Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX
• Duke-Baylor Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Duke-Baylor Spread: -4.5
• StubHub: Duke-Baylor Tickets
• StubHub: South Regional Final Tickets

Follow the link to view the complete Elite 8 TV schedule or to see our previews for the Butler-Kansas State, Kentucky-West Virginia game, or Michigan State-Tennessee game.

Baylor-Duke Preview

Next, let’s analyze this Elite 8 matchup.

[Note: If you followed our NCAA Tournament coverage here at MSF last year, you know that I published previews similar to this one for each game from the Sweet 16 on. Using statistical analysis from the ESPN Bracket Predictor, which is powered by TeamRankings.com, plus my own knowledge an intuition, I went 12-3 picking the 15 games that concluded the 2009 Tournament. The methodology is essentially the same this year; we'll see if the results are.]

Here is how the numbers break down between Baylor and Duke:

Before I give my prediction, you tell us how you think this game will go:

Baylor-Duke Analysis

This game features the most widely dispersed win odds we’ve seen. Typically the win odds are unanimously in the favor of one team. In this case, Duke wins three, there is a tie for one, and Baylor wins one. It is interesting to note that in tournament games for which there is a seed differential of two, the underdog has won 55% of the time.

Offensively, we are looking at two of the most efficiently productive teams in America. Both teams average well over 1 point per possession and have effective field goal percentages greater than 50%. Duke has a significant edge in terms of protecting the basketball with only a 13.1% turnover percentage, while both teams rebound fairly well and are about middle of the pack when it comes to getting to the free throw line. Duke leads the offensive categories 4-1.

On defense, Duke is outstanding, as Purdue can attest to after last night’s game. The Blue Devils can guard the perimeter well and have a solid rotation of role-playing big men down low who can rebound and body up opposing bigs. The Blue Devils lead Baylor in all five of the defensive categories above.

As with any NCAA Tournament game, this is a tricky one to predict.

Look at the stats contained herein and Duke would seem to have a pretty strong advantage. They hold leads in 9 out of the 10 offensive and defensive statistical categories above. Yet, the obvious caveat must be made that Baylor had a strong strength of schedule and the ACC was not of vintage ilk this year and not as strong as the Big 12. Account for that difference and perhaps Baylor overtakes Duke in a few of the closer categories.

So to hell with the numbers. As a well known though grating radio personality here in Dallas often says: “Watch the damn games.”

Well, if you watched Baylor completely dismantle St. Mary’s yesterday you might be ready to lay down some money on the Bears going all the way. They looked that good. Baylor has snuck up on people this year because they were only an NIT team last year, but this is a team with every element necessary to win a national title:

• a very good, experienced point guard in Tweety Carter who provides the requisite on-court leadership
• a bona fide star in LaceDarius Dunn who can take over games in a variety of ways
• an athletically gifted big man in Ekpe Udoh who is a matchup nightmare
• a freakishly athletic wing in Quincy Acy who is capable of attacking the rim on any possession and playing harrassing defense
• a gargantuan center in Josh Lomers who takes up space and has the ability to score in the post
• an up-and-coming coach with a strong pedigree who has a firm handle on his team’s many strengths and few weaknesses

What else do they need?

And remember, most Duke teams would enter an Elite 8 matchup having experience on their side. However, Duke hasn’t made it to the Elite 8 since 2004. So while Coach K obviously has more experience that Coach Drew, all of the players are in the same boat charting new tournament waters.

But lest this post become too much of a Baylor slop fest, keep this point in mind: as good as Baylor has looked during the tournament – and they’ve looked really good – upsets have given them a pretty sweet draw. Baylor has beaten a #14 seed, a #11 seed, and a #10 seed to reach the Elite 8.

Would Notre Dame or Villanova have given the Bears any big issues? I don’t know. I just throw it out there for whatever it is worth because Duke has looked pretty good in the tournament too, and they’ve beaten the Pac 10 champs and a team in Purdue that didn’t have its star player but still spent much of the season in top 10.

Duke-Baylor Prediction: Both of these teams are coming off of extremely impressive wins that came with completely different styles. That makes it hard to say that one of these teams will lose – I think after last night we can all see either Duke or Baylor winning.

So who goes home after Sunday’s game?

Well, after much internal debate, I’m reluctantly going with the Blue Devils. (And yes, I realize this counters my tweet from last night, but that’s why I waited until the morning to write this preview.)

Ultimately, no one has any idea how this game will go. I do think it will be a close game between two teams who are both capable of winning it all if they make it to Indianapolis. So with a lot of things feeling pretty even about this game, I’m going to trust the one stat that is decidedly uneven to help me predict this game: turnovers.

As you can see in the statistical breakdowns above, Baylor is 186th nationally in turning the ball over and 304th nationally in forcing turnovers. Duke, on the other hand, is 5th in the nation in turnover percentage while also doing a pretty good job of forcing turnovers (76th).

In tight games, turnovers can often be the difference. Considering that Duke has the 6th most efficient in America, it is safe to say that they know how to capitalize on any extra possessions. If Baylor gives Duke 4 or 5 extra possessions due to turnover differential, the stats say Duke will convert that into 5 or 6 points. In a tight game, that very well could be the difference.

Now I just hope I’m wrong.

Baylor’s a fun team to watch and I always root for the guys like Scott Drew who have Indiana roots. If the Bears squeeze the orange (h/t Clark Kellogg) they can win on Sunday. Unfortunately, I just don’t think that they will.

Duke 82 | Baylor 78

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* – Scott Drew photo credit: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America via Zimbio.com

* – Jon Scheyer photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via About.com

* – LaceDarius Dunn photo credit: DallasNews.com

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