An Argument Against Duke Being a #1 Seed

March 9, 2010 By 11 Comments

Total road wins for some top teams: Cornell 15, Butler 13, Nova 9, Syracuse 8, Purdue 8, West Virginia 8, K-State 8, Ohio State 7, UK 7, Duke 5.

Every analyst talks ad nauseum about how “good teams win on the road” and “teams that win on the road win in the tourney.” They are, of course, correct.

So how has Duke (or Kentucky for that matter) done in the tourney the past few years? Not well at all.

There’s a reason a 3rd seeded Villanova team dismantled a second seeded Duke team last year and few were surprised.

mike-krzyzewskiLook at the history of the tourney, and I’d bet NO team has ever been a #1 seed with just FIVE miniscule road wins all season. And none of those were non-conference, nor were any of them against really good teams – maybe one of those teams (Clemson) is even a tourney team. One.

I’m not a Duke hater. I’m just being honest and doing the research the media apparently is not (imagine if they had full time jobs outside of sports like I do!), but hopefully the Committee is paying attention. Certainly the weekly poll voters have not.

Duke lost last week and “held their spot” at number four. How does that happen, especially considering none of the four teams directly below them lost, and two of them had really strong weeks?

Duke is truly a #3 seed at best, but no doubt they’ll get a #2 seed at worst, and perhaps a #1.

Don’t forward this to any Duke fans. I know from recent experiences they will simply resort to ad hominem attacks.

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* – Mike Krzyzewski photo credit: Passion of the Weiss

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Filed Under: CBB, March Madness Tagged With: duke, ncaa tournament
About AJ Kaufman

AJ Kaufman is the co-editor of Midwest Sports Fans, where he has been a columnist since March 2009. AJ, a former Los Angeles schoolteacher and Indiana military historian, is now a corporate journalist, compiling publications for organizations across the country. He is a supporter of anything baseball-related -- especially minor league ball -- and mid-major college hoops. The author of three books, AJ is married to Maria and currently lives in Lincoln, Neb.

Follow him on Twitter (@ajkauf7) for ruminations on sports, politics, history and travel.

  • http://www.favredollarfootlongs.com FavreDollarFootlongs

    The only problem with your logic there is that Duke is undefeated on neutral courts and during the tournament where do they play…neutral courts. Plus, most places they go they will be the favorite.

  • Nate

    The bright side of Duke getting a undeserved high seed will be watching them get upset in the early rounds. Yesterday, Braketologist (did I just capitalize that?), Joe Lunardi, had them as a #1 seed set to face #8 Louisville in the second round. That could be an upset waiting to happen. He also had Butler as a 6th seed. I don't understand how a team could be top 15 all year and be considered in the 21-24 range (i.e. a 6th seed).

  • KDW

    I have been saying the same thing. How they didn't drop last week is insane. It's garbage, but it's just how it is. They are media darlings and it's crap… but it continues and will continue because their fan base is large. They are the Notre Dame of basketball

  • JSC

    You are going on one statistic – road wins, and ignoring all else. Duke's 1 road victory over a tourney team is more than Butler has this year (granted more opportunities). If you look at wins over top 50, Duke is #1. Also, is it really better to win a road game and then lose a home game?

    I still don't think this Duke team will make the Final Four but there is no basis for saying they should be a 3 seed when looking at the criteria the Committee uses to evaluate teams. They are clearly not as deserving as the top 3 teams but there really is no good choice for the 4th #1 seed. If Hummel doesn't get hurt, Purdue would be the favorite to get it right now.

  • AJ Kaufman

    Of course I am only using one stat. Just looking for a short article, but it's telling. Never seen a team with so few quality wins — overall, not just road — get close to a one seed. Butler has 13 road wins and six of those against quality teams. Duke lost at Maryland, Wisc, Gtown, Gtech and NC State. Two of those are non tourney teams. The other three were the only three difficult road games they scheduled. Just not that impressive. That's all I am saying, as are others — just not the media.

  • AJ Kaufman

    And? They've lost on neutral courts early on in the tourney each season recently. I see this year no differently.

  • AJ Kaufman

    Butler gets screwed each year. Gonzaga, who was 20 spots below Butler in the RPI before last night's blowout loss, was set as a 4 seed, with Butler as 6. Does that make sense? Butler does not lose. And until they do, they deserve no worse than a 4, and surely better — much better — than the Sienas, Murray States, Gonzagas, Cornells, Northern Iowas, and other top mid majors who could do the near-impossible: go undefeated in conference when everyonme plays their best game vs you.

  • AJ Kaufman

    If Purdue or OSU wins the big ten tourney, they are far more deserving of a one than Duke. Ditto if WVU or Nova wins the Big East. If none of those teams do, and Duke wins their weak conference tounrey convincingly, you can make an argument for a one seed.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/JerodMSF JerodMSF

    I agree with your basic premise that Duke's lack of road wins should put them at a disadvantage to some of the other teams you cited…but do you really think that Purdue minus Hummel should get a #1 over Duke? Not sure I could justify that.

  • AJ Kaufman

    Yes.

    Like OSU, Purdue's resume is worthy of a one seed if they win the big ten tourney. The NCAA does not seed based upon potential (I dont think).

    Purdue beat WVU, Tenn, OSU, MSU, Wisc, ILL twice, etc. Duke's beaten literally no one. Their best win was Gonzaga, who is about as overrated any team in America it seems.

  • AJ Kaufman

    I agree and have said for years that fan bases (i.e. $) determine seeding more than wins/losses. This is why mid majors are seeded poorly and Dukes are overseeded. Not just Duke, but Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, etc (not just this year, but years past)