Would & Should the White Sox Consider Trading Gordon Beckham for Adrian Gonzalez?

I have to admit, reading about this on Twitter last night shocked me.

One of the hot rumors making the rounds right now is that White Sox GM Ken Williams is so enamored with Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez that he might – might – be willing to include 2B Gordon Beckham in a deal for the lefty power hitter.

Via the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors (my favorite site for important baseball news and rumors like this), who wrote about the White Sox interest in trading for Adrian Gonzalez last night, I stumbled upon an article by Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com that discusses how well Jake Peavy is fitting in with the White Sox (Yeeesss!).

In the article, Peavy is quoted expressing his desire to bring his former teammate to the South Side. He has also reportedly discussed it with Williams, who we all know would probably trade his soul for a young, power hitting, lefty bat.

Here is the key excerpt from the Knobler article:

“I want Adrian [Gonzalez] to be my teammate over here,” Peavy said.

Interesting thought.

Peavy said he has already discussed the idea with White Sox general manager Ken Williams. Williams didn’t really need the suggestion, because the talk in White Sox camp is that whenever the Padres decide to move on trading their first baseman, Williams will be one of the first in line to make a deal.

“That’s really what we need, a big left-handed hitter,” one Sox person said. “They’re saying Kenny would give anything to get him, maybe even [Gordon] Beckham.”

As any White Sox fan knows, the minute you start talking about a realistic possibility of Beckham being involved in a trade, it’s something to pay attention to. I cannot remember another White Sox youngster since Frank Thomas having as much hype, obvious ability, and immediate success as Beckham.

Now, the obvious caveat before I go any further is that we really have no idea just how serious any of this is, at least regarding Beckham. We know that Adrian Gonzalez will most likely be made available, and we know that Ken Williams would chop off his own finger to get him, but trading the anointed future of the franchise is a whole different story.

Still, for purposes of fun blog discussion, let’s assume that Williams really would trade Beckham. (And if there is any GM who would make a move that bold, it’s Kenny.)

Pros for White Sox of trading a package that includes Gordon Beckham for Adrian Gonzalez

1) Adrian Gonzalez is young, proven, durable, and very, very good at the plate and in the field. Take one look at his numbers and you can see why Williams probably starts hyperventilating any time Gonzalez’s name comes up:

• He’s played in at least 156 games for four straight seasons.
• His HR totals have gone from 24 to 30 to 36 to 40 over the past four years, all while playing in a stadium that is usually awful for hitters.
• In 2009, Gonzalez walked ten more times than he a struck out, a huge accomplishment for a guy whose previous BB:K splits had been 52:113, 65:140, and 74:142.
• In addition to his .506 career slugging percentage while playing his home games in a pitcher’s park, Gonzalez has won two straight Gold Gloves.

2) Adding Gonzalez to the roster would give Ozzie and Kenny the everyday, non-DH, middle-of-the-order, lefty bat that they have coveted for so long. And he’d be entrenched there for the foreseeable future.

3) Young Gordon is as “can’t-miss” as they come, and had an auspicious debut last season, but is still young and significantly unproven in comparison to Gonzalez.

Cons for White Sox of trading a package that includes Gordon Beckham for Adrian Gonzalez

1) The reason why San Diego would trade Gonzalez is because they won’t be able to afford him, whereas the White Sox will have Beckham under contract for the next few years for a lot less than Gonzalez will demand. For a team that is already committed to large salaries for guys like Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, and others, can the White Sox afford another mammoth contract and still maintain enough financial flexibility to sign guys like Carlos Quentin long-term and fill out the rest of the roster with solid players?

2) Gonzalez’s power numbers are great, but it is easier to find power at the 1B position than it is to find the offensive production everyone expects from Beckham at the 2B slot. Thus, you cannot simply make an apples-to-apples comparison between the expected offensive output of the two. You have to consider the opportunity cost of who would play 1B next to Beckham after this season (if Paulie is gone) against who would play 2B if the Sox traded Beckham for Gonzalez.

Additionally, while Gonzalez’s Gold Gloves are an added bonus, the White Sox have done just fine with a guy of Paul Konerko’s defensive abilities – solid, but not GG-worthy – at 1B.

3) Gordon Beckham is still only 23 years old and we won’t know what his true power potential is for another 2-3 years. His best years are still to come. And while I have no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez has some very, very good years ahead of him, we may have seen his career year last season.

A lot of players peak at age 27, which is the age that Gonzalez played at last year. Although I would assume that Gonzalez could play similarly well for at least the next 2-3 years, and certainly playing in the hitter’s haven of U.S. Cellular Field would make his numbers look better, the question is do you want to pay a massive contract to a guy when you might have missed his best season? (Remember, Gonzalez’s .958 OPS last year crushed his career average and previous career high of .871. Will he revert back to his career mean?) Or, is more prudent financially to enjoy Beckham’s growth – and his career years – for what will most likely be significantly less money?

I will admit that this is a really tough one to analyze and take a position on. My gut reaction upon hearing it was hell no, both in terms of whether I’d do it and whether or not I thought the White Sox would actually do it. But the more you read about Williams’ affinity for Gonzalez and lefty power bats, plus the presence of Peavy, plus the relative youth and production of Gonzalez, the more such a trade becomes not only plausible…but down right possible and attractive.

Still, my personal position upon considering everything written above and trying to remove all subjectivity (which is, admittedly, probably impossible), is no.

Having Adrian Gonzalez would be wonderful, but I believe that there have to be other avenues to get power and solid defense at the 1B position that would not require such a significant financial investment and the loss of Beckham. Gordon is not just a terrific prospect; he is also the kind of player/personality combo that could become a star in the city of Chicago along the current lines of Derrick Rose or, long-term, like a Ryne Sandberg.

I’m not smart enough to know how you specifically value this quality – part of the reason why I’m a blogger and not a front office exec – but I do know that it’s important to the long-term value of the franchise. Of course, if you think acquiring Gonzalez gives you a better chance to win another World Series, with all of the financial impact considered, that obviously trumps Beckham’s potential Windy City star power.

On the diamond, having Beckham at a middle infield slot gives you a real luxury of getting power and offensive production, plus adequate-to-good defense, from a spot where you don’t always get offense. It is a lot harder to find a potential .300-20-100-20 player at 2B than it is to find a guy who could hit .270 with 25-30 HR at 1B. And if you’ve got the premium production at 2B, you can live with those numbers at a corner infield position.

So no, at this point, I don’t want the White Sox to lose Gordon Beckham’s love tonight, or any night, in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez. I do, however, remain open to alternate opinions, stats, or points of view, because I know they are probably out there. The comment section is yours to agree or disagree, and please do. I certainly do not claim to have all the answers, and the answer to this question could very well shape what the next decade looks like on the South Side of Chicago.

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* – Gordon Beckham photo credit: Sun-Times

* – Adrian Gonzalez photo credit: Live from California

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