We are now only days away from the big game as the Super Bowl betting on this last week of NFL picks keeps flooding in.
This year’s matchup faces the top teams in each conference; The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts.
It will be a star-studded affair in Miami, Florida this Sunday for Super Bowl XLIV.
Super Bowl XLIV: Sunday, February 7th, 2010
Bookmaker reviews (*note lines are accurate as of 2/4/10)
- Saints-Colts Spread: Colts -4.5
- Saints-Colts Over/Under: 56.5
- Saints-Colts Money Line: Colts -200, Saints +170
New Orleans Saints
(13-3 regular season, Def. Cardinals 45-14, Def Vikings 31-28 OT)
The Saints have looked like, and felt like, a freight train to other teams at times with an excellent mix of a hard hitting defense with a clever offense overflowing with all sorts of weapons. Saints Head Coach Sean Payton is considered one of the best in the game and an offensive genius. A victory over the favored Colts would solidify those notions.
The Saints are led by QB Drew Brees who devastated lesser defenses to the point of embarrassment in the regular season and in their playoff matchup versus the Cardinals. Saints WR’s Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore provide possibly the most talented quartet of wide outs on a single team in the league. Brees also has top-tier TE Jeremy Shockey at his disposal, which creates matchup nightmares over the middle. Out of the backfield the Saints have Pierre Thomas, who has proved to be a solid runner and earned the starting spot on the team over Reggie Bush, who has only shown glimpses of his true potential (43-yard run and punt return TD vs. Arizona for example). Both backs are good receivers out of the backfield, and Reggie Bush in space is a dangerous proposition.
Expect Sean Payton’s offense to be able to move the ball against the Colts defense. Reggie Bush will surely have a couple of gadget plays that involve his unique set of skills and Brees will test those young corners often with his dynamic receivers. The Saints defense will be up against it this week and this game will likely become a high scoring back and forth slugfest between the best offensive coach in the league and perhaps the greatest offensive player that ever lived.
Indianapolis Colts
(14-2 regular season, Def Ravens 20-3, Def. Jets 30-17)
The Colts record is virtually flawless this year. If you ignore the two losses at the end of the season when they were resting their starters, the Colts are undefeated. They have won close games, blowouts, came from behind and kept leads for whole games. They can beat you anyway you dream up.
QB Peyton Manning earned his fourth MVP trophy of his career, a new NFL record for most MVP’s. Manning methodically decimated the best defense in the league in the AFC championship game and once he figured out what they were throwing at him, in the second quarter, the game was never in doubt. Manning now faces a 4-3 blitz scheme in Gregg Williams’ Saints defense. Manning has a quarterback rating of over 100 against the blitz, and the 4-3 leaves the field too open for All-Pro WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, emerging WR’s Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie and RB Donald Brown and Joe Addai out of the backfield.
It all hinges with Manning in this game. Manning has played flawlessly and is the engine that makes this offense work. His offensive line protects him well enough and the Saints will need an extraordinary effort to disrupt his rhythm. The Jets were able to, for a quarter, but Peyton took 7 step drops so they couldn’t get to him and then shredded the blitzes like Watergate files. I expect the same to happen, but the 4-3 is not Manninghasn’t seen and is less effective against him than the 3-4.
I find it more likely that Peyton Manning confuses Gregg Williams and not the other way around. This could be a historic performance by Manning statistically in this game, especially if Drew Brees is as game of a competitor as he has been all year long.
Saints-Colts Prediction: Peyton is simply a delight to watch and it’s almost poetic sometimes with how perfect his throws are and how he can decipher the other teams’ blitzes and adjust his protection manually at the line of scrimmage. If the Saints try to blitz him, they will get burned…bad. One turnover by the Saints and this one could be all over. Manning will have an enormous day and earn his 2nd Super Bowl MVP.
Saints-Colts Pick: Colts 38 – Saints 30
Take the Colts and the Over
