In recent days we’ve brought you 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper picks at catcher as well as infield sleepers and outfield sleeper picks. Today, we come back to the middle of the diamond for what t is universally renowned for being what real baseball championships are built upon: pitching.
The final two posts in our sleeper series will look at starting pitchers and closers who you should be targeting in the later rounds and on the cheap in your drafts this year.
Today, we start out with the starting pitchers and look at David Price, Brett Anderson, Jonathan Sanchez, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Correia.
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: SPÂ David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
- #42nd Drafted SP ADP – 177 (High 130 / Low 215)
- Category: Primed for PrimeTime
The #1 overall pick in the 2007 Draft had a rough go of it in 2009. But when you are looking at value picks, you gotta dig especially when it is a player of Price’s potential.
The mid 4 ERA, 10-7 record, and 2:1 K/BB ratio doesn’t excite many. What does excite me is the home/road splits. Price’s home split was 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA and OBA of .204. This tells me that Price was a young nervous pitcher on the road in his rookie season. An offseason of reflection along with higher expectations should provide the fuel for Price to step up a level in 2010.
Pitchers of Price’s pedigree typically make major strides in year 2, and even more in year 3 (watch Clayton Kershaw this year). Don’t be surprised if Price flirts with a no-hitter sometime in 2010.
Other pitchers being drafted in the same area: Brandon Webb and Max Schrezer who are both risks.
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: SP Brett Anderson, Oakland A’s
- #48th Drafted SP ADP – 192 (High 115 / Low ND)
- Category: Primed for PrimeTime
I love taking starting pitchers in year 2 that were top prospects and showed improvement after the All Star Break. Anderson falls into the same category as David Price earlier. Everything is in line for Anderson to have a great year. It also helps that half his starts are in Oakland which is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
Anderson made great strides post All-Star Break last year with over a 4/1 K:BB, 3.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9, and over 6 IP per start. He should give you value of a guy in the 150 ADP range.
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: SP Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants
- 60th Drafted SP – ADP 242 (High 169 / Low ND)
- Category:Primed for PrimeTime
Sanchez has been a bit of a sore spot for me. I dealt for him last year and he was a throw in while I dealt Carl Crawford for Andre Ethier, Joe Saunders, and him. Sanchez struggled so much that I outright dropped him literally days before he tossed a perfect game. After that it was off to the races.
Sanchez is a guy who fantasy guys always salivate for because of the high K’s. The killer was always the high 4 to 5 ERA. But a couple key numbers that stand out for me – his BAA Post All-Star break was .206. I’ll take that and the Giants ballpark anytime. Heck Erik Bedard is being drafted ahead of him right now!
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
- #66th Drafted SP ADP – 256 (High 134 / Low ND)
- Category: Bounce Back Candidate
There is nothing from 2008 or 2009 you can show me that says Liriano bounces back. Of course, he was still recovering from being injured and then bombed last year. What has people excited is the Dominican Winter League numbers in which Liriano looked like the dominant self we saw in 2006.
The FB% over 40% does worry me and he will need to get that back down in the mid 20’s. His value can’t get much lower, but the ceiling is tremendous. How many potential aces are sitting there at ADP 256?
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: SP Kevin Correia, San Diego Padres
#70th Drafted SP – ADP 285 (High 195 / Low ND)
Category: Primed for PrimeTime
One of the things I look for in fantasy pitchers is ballpark / division and the NL West is perfect for that. Correia might not get more than 10-12 Wins simply because the Padres are a very poor hitting team, but the ERA and WHIP should be solid enough that he will give you some nice value here at ADP 288.  The GB rate of 45% is a nice parameter for a solid 2010.
Follow the links to view the other posts in MSF’s 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper series:
- Fantasy baseball sleepers: catcher
- Fantasy baseball sleepers: infielders
- Fantasy baseball sleepers: outfielders
- Fantasy baseball sleepers: closers
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* – David Price photo credit: Rays Baby Rays
