I am already on record picking the Colts to win Super Bowl XLIV. I feel relatively comfortable that this is what will happen on Sunday night, but on a confidence level scale from 1 to 100, I would say that I’m at about a 50.
The reason is that it is the Super Bowl we are talking about here, a game that sometimes goes exactly as we think it will (Indy spanking the Bears a few years ago) and that, conversely, sometimes goes exactly how we think it won’t (the Giants beating the Patriots in ’08 and the Patriots beating the Rams in ’02).
The truth is that anyone who tells you they know what will happen on Sunday night is full of crap. We all just think we know a bunch of stuff that will probably happen might not actually end up happening.
So, since I haven’t really challenged my own initial gut instinct that Indy would win, I’ve decided to explore the Saints-Colts Super Bowl matchup and find a few reasons why the Saints, not the favored Colts, can win.
Surprisingly, it wasn’t that hard to do.
Dwight Freeney’s injury is huge.
This one has been discussed ad nauseum already…and it’s only Wednesday. I also addressed it earlier this week in our Dwight Freeny injury update. The reason everyone is making a big deal about Freeney’s injury is because a) he’s an All-Decade player an impact position and b) the Colts small, fast defense revolves around Freeney and Robert Mathis pressuring QBs from the ends.
New Orleans has a lot of trouble over the past month keeping good defensive ends out of the pocket. The battle between the Saints’ O-Line and the Colts’ dynamic duo of rushers looked to be a huge advantage for Indy. If Freeney is out or hobbled, that advantage shrinks. The result will likely be more time and comfort throwing the ball for Drew Brees, and he’s deadly against any defense when he has time.
The Saints can run.
The Saints have least some semblance of balance, whereas the Colts do not. New Orleans finished the regular season ranked a surprising #6 in rushing yards per game (131.6). Indianapolis notoriously finished dead last, a full eight yards behind San Diego (80.9).
Clearly, the greatness of Peyton Manning makes for this discrepancy. The NFL is also a passing league now, so an inability to run does not equate to an inability to win. Regardless, this is an advantage for New Orleans, and I am sure that they will try to control the ball on the ground as much as possible to minimize the number of times Peyton can get on the field.
The Saints’ defensive strength is forcing turnovers.
New Orleans does not have a great defense. What they have is a decent defense that is great at forcing turnovers and being opportunistic. Amid all the gushing about Peyton Manning’s greatness – and it is warranted – people are overlooking the fact that Manning is not immune to throwing interceptions, even untimely ones.
On the season, Manning tossed 16 passes to the other team. The Saints defense, despite giving up the 26th most passing yards in the league, intercepted a whopping 26 passes, which was 3rd in the league.
For the Saints to win, they will need to get one or two interceptions. If they can then turn those INTs into immediate points, which Darren Sharper has proven to be so good at this season, the Saints will get a big boost both on the scoreboard and in momentum.
Remember the Ravens game just a few weeks back? Indianapolis had the Baltimore on the ropes in the second half when Ed Reed picked off two Peyton Manning passes and seemed to give his team one last breath of life. Unfortunately for Reed and the Ravens, he fumbled one right back to Indy and the other was negated because of a penalty. The point is that even the great Peyton will throw an untimely INT; New Orleans needs him to do it on Sunday.
Meaningless historical trends favor New Orleans.
Did you know that NFC teams are 6-2 in Super Bowls pairing #1 seeds? It’s true. Wikipedia says so. Also, the last three Super Bowl winners by conference went AFC, NFC, AFC. Now, I’m no genius, but the next one in the pattern would seem to me to be NFC.
How can anyone pick against the Saints with trends like these overwhelmingly in their favor?
God might be rooting for the Saints.
There is a good chance that God does not care about football. Even if he does, I would have to assume that he is like Roger Goodell and stays as impartial as he possibly can be.
But…
On the off chance that God is a football fan and does allow himself to be swept up into storylines (you know, like the rest of us) you have to think that he’ll pull a few strings for New Orleans.
I could not believe in a God that doesn’t feel at least a little bit of guilt over Katrina. Maybe the man upstairs is waiting for Sunday to start making amends?
Obviously the answer is probably not, but it’s at least worth mentioning isn’t it? On the off, off, off chance that He is rooting for the Saints on Sunday night, well, not even Peyton Manning can overcome God…I don’t think.
Also, just to state it for the record, I do not believe that God nor Jesus looks like Drew Brees. I also differ from many of you New Orleans fans who actually consider God, Jesus, and Drew Brees to be the new Holy Trinity.
I’m a big fan of Drew Brees, but I have to let all of the Saints fan in on a little knowledge that they may not have if they didn’t grow up in Indiana. Drew Brees went to Purdue, and there is no way that any relative or incarnation of God is a Boilermaker. (But if you also went to Purdue, give back!)
I think that there are plenty of compelling reasons – and many more than what I’ve listed here – to believe in the Saints’ chances Sunday night. Still, t’m sticking with my original prediction. I think the Colts win but the Saints cover the spread, which now ranges from 4.5 to 6, depending on where you look.
Who do you think is winning Sunday night?
Who will win Super Bowl XLIV? Total Voters: 2,106
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For all of the New Orleans supporters out there, I know that there are plenty of legitimate pro-Saints points that I left out. What did I forget?
The comment section is yours to state your case for why the Saints will be lifting the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.
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* – Dwight Freeney photo credit: Matt Kryger via The Star
* – Darren Sharper photo credit: iSportsWeb
* – Drew Brees photo credit: This Saints blog
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About Jerod Morris
I know the God paragraph was tongue-in-cheek and I’m not too pushy with my faith, but since you brought it up…=0)
God cares about everything– and the Bible is filled with scripture pertaining to how intimately God cares about each of us, personally, specifically and individually. As for Katrina-like events, probably best left to discuss for another time in another venue. But God feels no guilt because He is perfect. He mourns and weeps with us, but guilt is not in his bag.
/sermon
//proselytizing
p.s.: Besides, we all know God is a Bears fan!
christ… really, really?
I think some of it comes down to who wants it more. I think the saints win in that intangible. Their whole season has been a march to this point, when they knew how good they were, they stepped it up, they have less pressure on them to win, as no one sees them as a real threat anyways. the colts wont think them as a push over, but for sure the colts feel they have the edge and it may show. just this slightest showing of overconfidence may be the push the saints need to show them up.
Go PACKERS!
I think that is actually Bressus.
That's a good point about less pressure to win, at least externally. The Colts have lingering pressure from the decision to rest starters in Week 16 and 17 that essentially made the playoffs a "Super Bowl or bust" scenario. But ultimately, I think both teams feel a lot of pressure to win because it's the Super Bowl. You could also say that the Saints might have a "happy to be here" feel and might not have quite the edge they need. Who knows.
Like all football games it will come down to execution. I like the Colts to win because of Peyton and their consistency. But if Drew Brees and the Saints offense can keep pace, there is no reason why New Orleans can't be right there with a chance to steal it in the end.
You guys are stupid and talked yourself into thinking the Saints will win. Colts are clearly the better football team even without Freeny. Saints can run? Not better than the Jets number 1 running attack that the Colts shut down and made them look no better than the Lions rushing. God wants the Saints to win?? Is this a real reason why you think the Saints will win? Then you are just stupid. Peyton Manning throws ints? Doesn’t every single QB ever to play!? And Brees for some reason doesn’t throw Ints? Again your reasons are just stupid. Oh yeah, baseing this game on who’s going to win by the previous NFC, AFC matchups is just another dumb reason why you think the NFC team will win just because they won more the past 6 games. Jerod, please go back to writing about Pokemon.
JJ
Josh, thanks the visit and comment. I’ve already stated plenty of times that I think the Colts are going to win. They are my official pick. The goal of this article was to find a few reasons why the Saints CAN win and have a little fun doing it. Do I think God really wants the Saints to win? Of course not. I don’t think He cares. Apparently I should only be 100% serious at all times though and not even consider the Saints chances despite saying twice in the article that I picked the Colts.
Just trying to have a little fun Josh. Maybe that just didn’t come across in the article. I appreciate even critical comments though because at least you cared enough to read/respond…so hopefully we’ll see you back on the site soon.
And I would go back to writing about Pokeman, but it’s just not as much fun as football.
First of all if there is a god…I’m not sure that he roots for a specific team. But, I am sure that he effing hates the Cleveland Browns.
Really if you all would break down the Colts-Saints game and study if like I have you would know that the Saints have the upper hand. Drew Brees is ranked 1st in the NFL while Peyton Manning is ranked 6th. Most of all it’s going to come down to the running game and the pass defense, or it’s going to be up to the special teams. In this game I favor the New Orleans Saints because 43 years of pain and agony is going to unleash all over the Colts.
Johnnie Davidson 3
As a Colts fan I really enjoyed the article. Some good laughs and some good observations. The stats can only give you a percentage of what may play out during the game. It can go either way on any play. This is going to be a great game. Yes, there are numerous off the field story lines however, the play of both teams is what got them here.
What really makes my day is that these are two "small" market teams with a loyal fan base.
Lets just let the game be played! You can look at stats and all that but once you get on the field its a different story. Everyone is sleeping on the Saints but they really have a chance to pull out a win.
I agree with you. New Orleans certainly has a chance. People (including me) forget that so many of Indy’s games were close and came down to one or two plays making the difference. The big advantage for the Colts is that Peyton Manning almost always makes those one or two key plays necessary to win. The onus is on Brees. If he wants to be a Super Bowl champion, he has to outduel Manning in all probability. He’s capable, but right now Manning is more proven.
I think Jesus plays soccer. Just what I heard.
In all seriousness, I think Peyton finds a way to win this one and solidifies himself as arguably one of the best QBs ever. I expect a high scoring game, but I really do have a hard time betting against Manning in this situation.
I agree with you. He’s just been too damn good lately to pick against. If Brees does find a way to win, however, he takes a huge step up into the next stratosphere of GREAT QBs.
Personally, I think this is one of the funniest articles I’ve seen written (and I’ve read alot) about the Colts/Saints game. I agree that until the game is played no one truly knows! I’m a Saints Fan and as most Saints fans, we are just proud that they made it to the Superbowl after 43 years…..winning would be lagniappe!
Thanks for the kind words Sharlene. Your comment brings up an interesting point though: do you think your team has any of the "just happy to be here" feeling too? I know it's impossible to know for sure, and impossible to gauge what effect it could have, but football is a game where any extra edge is important. I just hope the Saints don't feel like they've accomplished anything yet.