2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Intro & Catchers

[Editor's note: I am really pleased this morning to introduce a new contributor to the MSF team: Michael Rathburn, aka The Cooler Guy. He and I have talked a lot of sports and a lot of fantasy baseball via Twitter, and we are really fortunate that he's agreed to share his expertise and insight with us for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. So be on the lookout for his articles here, as well as on his site Around the Cooler.]

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It is February and we are only a couple weeks away from Pitchers and Catchers reporting for Spring Training.  This also means that mock drafts are starting to gear up in full swing.  Some bigger leagues are even starting their league drafts right now.

Top 100, Top 200, Sleepers, Rookies – all are valuable parts of a successful fantasy baseball owners’ season. Today and over the next few days we will be analyzing sleepers and projected high value picks for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.

My definition of a Sleeper/Value Pick is a player being taken in the 10^th round or later who will provide you with value of at least 2-5 rounds higher.  I love Matt Wieters this year, for example but he is already in the top 100 and a top 5 catcher so he did not make this list. Geovanny Soto, however, a guy who greatly underperformed expectations last year, did make the list, as you will see below.

I starting doing fantasy baseball leagues on ESPN in 1997 and each year I identify a list of players, depending on the league format, who I want to target late in drafts.  I have been able to consistently finish in the top tier of fantasy baseball leagues by taking chances on positional scarcity early on in drafts and drafting players later on who bring higher value vs. their draft position.  Aaron Hill, Fernando Rodney, and Ben Zobrist were all guys that carried me last year while Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, and Troy Percival were on the DL or underperforming.

Over the course of the next few days, I will be rolling out a top 15 list of players that I feel will provide you the best value considering their current average draft position vs. what I project will be their actual performance in 2010.

I categorize Sleepers/Value Picks into 5 categories:

• Bounce Back Candidate – A player coming off injury or a down year who looks primed for a bounce back year
• Change of Scenery – A player who was traded or who was a free agent signing that puts him in a better park, league, team, etc.
• Opportunity Knocks – A player who is now in a starting role
• Forget Me Not – A player whose performance used to be in the upper echelon of fantasy baseball players but has dropped, but still has value versus where they are being drafted.
• Primed for PrimeTime – A younger player who showed flashes of brilliance and is ready to move into the upper echelon of fantasy baseball players.

Here are a few players that fell into these categories last year: Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Javier Vazquez, Troy Tulowitzki, Kendry Morales, and Heath Bell.  Chances are if you had at least two of these players on your team in 2009, you finished in the top 3 of your fantasy baseball league.  These are all players now being drafted in the top 100 for 2010.

My two favorite positions to land a value pick on are Catcher and Closer, the former because the position is so scarce that if you can land a top 5 guy without having to pay the price, it’s a really great thing.  So let’s start there, and then over the next few days I will reveal my 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper picks at the other positions.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: C Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

• #9th Drafted Catcher ADP 152 (High 109 / Low 209)
• Category: Bounce Back Candidate

We see it all the time in every sport.  A rookie comes out of nowhere and exceeds expectations only to have that dreaded, clichéd “Sophomore Slump”.  Soto was exactly that in 2009.  After being a top 5 catcher in 2008, winning the NL ROY, and helping the Cubs to the NL Central title – Soto bombed out in 2009.

Battling injuries and off the field issues, along with most of his Cubs teammates disappointing, it was a forgetful year for Soto.  That being said, I can’t see Soto being this bad again.  One key stat was Soto’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): in 2008 it was .337 versus .251 in 2009.

There should be a bounce back factor for him here and he is worth taking a flyer on with an ADP of 152.  The High and Low Variances tell me that there is confidence from the smart guys he can re-establish himself as top 5 catcher.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick: C Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates

• #13th Drafted Catcher ADP – 206 (High 137 / Low ND)
• Category: Bounce Back Candidate

Doumit’s 2009 was almost identical to Geovany Soto’s.  Marred by injuries, the year was a waste for Doumit and he came close to being dealt at the trading deadline.

One of the toughest injuries to come back from as a hitter is the wrist.   It normally takes a full year to come back from it.  The issue with Doumit is that he has been injury prone throughout his career, so you are taking a chance here.  But looking at the catchers being drafted ahead of him — Iannetta, Napoli, and Molina — I like Doumit to outperform them in 2010 and hit the high ADP value of 143.

For more 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper picks, follow these links (once the stories are posted):

• 2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Picks – Infielders
• 2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Picks – Outfielders
• 2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Picks – Starting Pitchers
• 2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Picks – Closers

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* – MLB logo credit: 30 Ballparks & a Baby

* – Geovany Soto photo credit: FreeFantasyMagazine.com

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