Heisman Trophy Presentation Preview, Pick, and Prediction

Yesterday, out of the blue, I hear from the office next to mine, “Toby Gerhart is white?” I think that pretty much sums up the Stanford running back’s chances of winning the Heisman.

And contrary to what you may think I am insinuating, it has nothing to do with his skin color and everything to do with the fact that so many people have never even seen Gerhart play.

I would hope that the writers and former winners who decide the Heisman Trophy have been keen enough observers of college football to be well acquainted with Gerhart’s exploits this season – for they are prodigious – but I don’t think it can really be denied that a bias exists against West Coast players who do not play for USC or a team competing for a national championship.

It all comes down to exposure.

My first time ever seeing Gerhart play (I live in Dallas) was when Stanford played Notre Dame. He was sensational. I wonder how many Heisman voters based on the East Coast or Midwest have only seen Gerhart play once or perhaps even less?

Based on the voting, I think we’ll find out Saturday night.

Heisman Trophy Presentation Preview

Before we look at the players’ stats and I give you my Heisman Trophy pick (plus who I think will actually win), here is the TV viewing information for the 2009 Heisman Trophy presentation:

• Heisman Trophy Award Presentation Date: Saturday, December 12th
• Heisman Trophy Award Presentation Time: 8:00 ET
• Heisman Trophy Award Presentation TV: ESPN
• Heisman Trophy Award Presentation Location: Downtown Athletic Club in New York City

To me, Gerhart is a slam-dunk choice to be, at a minimum, in the top two. If he drops any further than that I think it will be proof that Gerhart fell victim two biases: 1) that he plays on the West Coast, and 2) that he is not one of the golden boy quarterbacks that the media has been fawning over for the past four years.

Look at the numbers of Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow. Do either of them really deserve to be in the top 5 this year? Really?

Heisman Trophy Contender Stats

Toby Gerhart:

• 1,736 rushing yards
• 26 rushing TDs
• 5.6 yards per carry
• 10 receptions, 149 yards receiving
• 3 200+ yard games
• 10 games of 113+ yards
• Only two sub-100 yard games (season low: 82)
• This gem of a run against Notre Dame:

Mark Ingram:

• 1,542 rushing yards
• 15 TDs
• 6.2 yards per carry
• 30 receptions, 322 receiving yards, 3 TDs
• 1 200+ yard game
• 8 100+ yard games
• Five sub-100 yard games (season low: 30)

Ndamukong Suh:

• 82 total tackles (47 solo)
• 12 sacks
• 23 tackles for loss
• Winner of Bronco Nagurski Trophy
• A season of dominance that cannot be described by statistics.

Colt McCoy:

• 3,512 passing yards
• 70.5% completion
• 7.50 yards per attempt
• 27 TDs
• 12 INTs
• 147.46 passer efficiency rating
• 348 yards rushing, 3 TDs

Tim Tebow:

• 2,413 passing yards
• 65.2% completion
• 8.65 yards per attempt
• 18 TDs
• 5 INTs
• 155.59 passer efficiency rating
• 859 yards rushing, 13 TDs

I think Tebow’s combination of rushing and passing make him a worthy candidate, but Colt McCoy just did not live up to the hype this year. If he played for any team other than Texas, he would not have sniffed New York for the Heisman presentation. But such is life in the BCS era.

Heisman Trophy Pick

If I was a voter, I actually wouldn’t pick Gerhart first. I’d go with Ndamukong Suh, one of the most dominating defensive presences I have ever seen at the collegiate level. And for those of you would make an argument for Colt McCoy, I would just ask if you watched the Big 12 Championship game.

Suh did everything to put his team in a position to win it, including 4.5 sacks (of McCoy). Colt, the supposed Heisman contender, threw three INTs and almost cost his team a shot at a national title with one of the most bone-headed plays I’ve ever seen. Only a fortuitous (and, granted, correct) clock correction by the officials saved McCoy from Webber-like infamy.

No, the teams of Gerhart and Suh are not in the BCS, but where would they be without them? Is Stanford competing for a Pac-10 title and in a bowl game without Gerhart leading the way for his freshman QB? Is Nebraska even in the Big 12 championship game without Suh (seen below tossing fellow Heisman “contender” Colt McCoy to the ground) making things hellish for every opposing offense?

I say not to both, part of what fuels the immense value that these two guys possess.

Here is how I would rank the five finalists for the Heisman Trophy:

1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
2. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
3. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
4. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
5. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

Now you decide.

Heisman Trophy Prediction

As for who I think will actually win, I would say Mark Ingram, mainly because of the exposure he’s gained by playing in the SEC, his role on a BCS Championship game participant, and his brilliance in the SEC Championship game.

For me, it’s hard to erase the memory of his poor performance in the Iron Bowl the week before the SEC Championship Game. That is why I’d go with Suh and Gerhart over him.

But I have to say, if Ingram does win, it will be a very deserving award for his school to finally receive. I had no idea that Alabama has never had a Heisman Trophy winner. (Follow the link for a list of all past Heisman Trophy winners.)

We’ll see how it plays out on Saturday night. Here are some links that will show you what some experts from across the web think will happen.

• ESPN Experts’ Poll – 1) Gerhart, 2) Ingram, 3) Suh
• CBSSports.com Experts’ Poll – 1) Gerhart, 2) Ingram, 3) Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State)
• Gene Menez, SI.com – 1) Suh, 2) Ingram, 3) Gerhart

And if you’re interested in the betting angle, here are the current Heisman Trophy odds, from DocSports:

• Mark Ingram -350
• Colt McCoy +125
• Toby Gerhart +300
• Ndamukong Suh +500
• Tim Tebow +1500

And finally, the most important Heisman Trophy prediction of all: StiffArmTrophy.com.

Why is this prediction so important? Well, because they have been right seven out of seven years and have been off on the winning vote projection by only 1.8%. Essentially, their methodology involves compiling as many of the official ballots as they can and then doing some projections from there.

This how they currently see the 2009 Heisman Trophy going, as of the morning of December 10th:

1. Mark Ingram – 1177 (projected points)
2. Toby Gerhart – 1133
3. Ndamukong Suh – 1096
4. Colt McCoy – 858
5. Tim Tebow – 303

Enjoy the Heisman presentation this weekend everyone. And remember that another 30 for 30 documentary airs right after it. This one is called “The U.” and looks at the Miami Hurricanes’ football program under Jimmy Johnson in the 80s. Sounds like pretty compelling television to me.

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