Thursday Night Football Preview: Colts-Jaguars Spread, Analysis, and Pick

titans-texans spread pick, analysis, prediction - monday night football - tennessee at houstonEditor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF and Thursday Night Football coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

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Thursday Night Football Preview

Indianapolis Colts (13-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)

  • Colts-Jaguars Date: Thursday, December 17
  • Colts-Jaguars Kickoff Time: 8:20
  • Colts-Jaguars TV Network: NFLN
  • Colts-Jaguars Announcers: Bob Papa and Matt Millen
  • Colts-Jaguars Point Spread: Colts -3
  • Colts-Jaguars Over-Under Odds: 42.5
  • Colts-Jaguars Spread Pick by Jerod: This is a very difficult game to handicap without knowing exactly what the Colts will do with their starters. From all of the reports I’ve read this week, it sounds like the starters will play as normal this week. Regardless, I like the Jags to at least cover, and possibly win, this game. Jacksonville always plays Indianapolis tough and clearly is the team with more riding on this game. Indy is obviously a better team, and would demolish Jacksonville if this were the playoffs, but the Jags have always proven to be a tough regular season foe and the Colts will undoubtedly be in for a Thursday night road dogfight. Colts-Jaguars free pick: Jaguars +3

Colts-Jaguars Analysis

I attended the Colts record-breaking win over Brandon Marshall and Denver this past Sunday. And while Indy is still 13-0 and getting little respect from the media as compared to New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, San Diego and even New England, the Colts looked suspect for over half of their 28-16 win versus the 8-5 Broncos.

Blitzed most of the day, and hurrying passes (three of them picked), Peyton Manning looked flustered at times, but as the AP game recap noted, “he demonstrated how an undefeated team survives the perfect storm.” Though the Broncos missed all kinds of scoring opportunities, and arguably outplayed Indianapolis, the Colts have prevailed in these kinds of situations/games week after week this season (and last), which is the mark of a great team.

colts-jaguars spread pick and prediction - thursday night football indianapolis at jacksonvilleNow, on a short week, Indy takes their 22 game regular season winning streak to the banks of the Saint Johns River to take on a Jaguar team who was in sole possession of the last playoff spot four days ago. Yet after a semi-surprising home loss to in-state rival Miami, Jacksonville now finds itself tied with numerous teams at 7-6, desperate for a win — and desperate to keep the franchise away from Los Angeles and still in north Florida.

If there’s ever a great chance to make a statement for Jack Del Rio’s team, and win back their fans, this would be it. The Jags aren’t out of it if they lose by any means, and the Colts, home field clinched, have little to play for other than perfection.

Again, the stars seem aligned for a big night from the Jags. They generally play the Colts tough at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, destroying them in 2006 during the Indy’s super bowl run season ago. But while in that game, Maurice Jones-Drew ran to the moon, lately, he’s been less than stellar, failing to reach 100 yards four games in a row. The Colts run defense is also as good as it’s been this decade — a decade in which Indianapolis has won 114 games, also a record.

As one local analyst wrote , “Gone are the days when you can write an article praising the Colts and talk only about Peyton Manning and the offense. The Larry Coyer-led defense has been very special this season.” Others have echoed such sentiments too.

Colts-Jaguars Prediction

[Note: I am predicating this on the Colts playing their regulars for at least the first half, maybe into the 3rd and possibly the entire game, despite reports to the contrary. Recall in 2005, the Colts clinched the No. 1 seed Dec. 11 and rested. Their next meaningful game was Jan. 15, a home playoff loss to Pittsburgh. In 2007, the Colts clinched their playoff spot Dec. 23, and basically shut it down. They didn't play full-go again until Jan. 13, a home loss to San Diego.]

colts-jaguars spread pick and prediction - thursday night football indianapolis at jacksonvilleWill their injuries — offensive, defensive and special teams — finally doom Indy? Does Jacksonville get an early week 14 jump on the rest of the wild card contenders and put get to the same win total (8) as current wild card leader Denver?

No and no.

The Colts are just too good. And Jacksonville, who’s overachieved in 2009, really took a major step back on Sunday, inducing a hangover that very well may carry into Thursday night.

Again, it’ll be close, but the Colts will find a way to win and cover the spread.

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* – Jack Del Rio photo credit: Chris Gardner / U.S. Presswire via ESPN.com

* – Jim Caldwell photo credit: Dexter’s Vantage Point

This week’s Thursday Night Football post is also sponsored by 1-800-Plumber, with locations across the country (like their Naples plumber and Atlanta plumber franchises) ready to help you with your plumbing needs.

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About AJ Kaufman

AJ Kaufman is the co-editor of Midwest Sports Fans, where he has been a columnist since March 2009. AJ, a former Los Angeles schoolteacher and Indiana military historian, is now a corporate journalist, compiling publications for organizations across the country. He is a supporter of anything baseball-related -- especially minor league ball -- and mid-major college hoops. The author of three books, AJ is married to Maria and currently lives in Lincoln, Neb.

Follow him on Twitter (@ajkauf7) for ruminations on sports, politics, history and travel.

  • som

    do you think it will be a game over 46?

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/JerodMSF JerodMSF

    I'm not sure what AJ thinks, but I don't. It's a division rivalry and I think it ends up being more of an ugly, low scoring game (which, with the Colts involved, means 24-14 or something like that).

  • AJ Kaufman

    No, but close — perhaps more than 38 points, but fewer than 46…and rain is forecasted too:
    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/KVB KVB

    I would go under as well.

  • AJ Kaufman

    Yep, WAY under. LOL.
    I dont think EITHER defense has made a stop tonight. Entertaining game though!